A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

Share this Blog
6
+

Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1456 - 1406

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Lots of lightning here tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1455. FLdewey
Quoting PcolaDan:


I've done everything BUT pour boiling water on them. Never even thought of that.

(do have a couple of nice burn spots on the lawn though)


Yeah now don't get me wrong, I've tried gas too. It works, but... well yeah you know.

I was a disbeliever too... try it. When the boiling water soaks into the mound it steams them all to death. Come back 10 minutes later and there will be a nice shiny ring of ant death.

DANG I hate those little freaks.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:


I'm glad I'm not the only one with that issue.

I prefer to boil a gallon on water and dump it on the mound. No chemicals to bother the kids, and they dead.

They dead, they baby daddy dead. They all dead!


OMG Please Stop it.... I can not "Laugh" anymore... then I read this
Quoting tiggeriffic:
best ant killer in the world...50/50 borax and sugar...pour it on the mound and stir em up just a little...they come up for the sugar and take the borax at the same time...borax will put the last nail in that tiny little condo coffin... :)


Nothing like Stirring up a Bunch of Ants to watch them "Die".....

Yall are "Killing Me"

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:


South West of New Orleans
been a long time since i saw the temp. out side at 77 F and the humitity at 99 nice and cool out tonight
Near Houma?
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:


South West of New Orleans
been a long time since i saw the temp. out side at 77 F and the humitity at 99 nice and cool out tonight


WOW...our heat index is still at 90...cant even cool down at night before we are hot with the sun the next day again...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:


I'm glad I'm not the only one with that issue.

I prefer to boil a gallon on water and dump it on the mound. No chemicals to bother the kids, and they dead.

They dead, they baby daddy dead. They all dead!


I've done everything BUT pour boiling water on them. Never even thought of that.

(do have a couple of nice burn spots on the lawn though)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just showed Big E the door.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1448. j2008
Quoting FLdewey:


I just want to know what the yellow flag was for?

Maybe he was going to call a penalty on the storm? Maybe it was so they could find the carcass easier.

The storm was offsides LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:


I just want to know what the yellow flag was for?

Maybe he was going to call a penalty on the storm? Maybe it was so they could find the carcass easier.

lol...who knows? For all we iknow that could have been what was left of Cantore's shirt before OZ ripped it off of him...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Quoting BahaHurican:
Where did u say u were located again? [preparing to avoid that part of the US for rest of season] ;o)


South West of New Orleans
been a long time since i saw the temp. out side at 77 F and the humitity at 99 nice and cool out tonight
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
best ant killer in the world...50/50 borax and sugar...pour it on the mound and stir em up just a little...they come up for the sugar and take the borax at the same time...borax will put the last nail in that tiny little condo coffin... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1443. FLdewey
Quoting muddertracker:


My eeeeving is in danger!


I just want to know what the yellow flag was for?

Maybe he was going to call a penalty on the storm? Maybe it was so they could find the carcass easier.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting Matt74:
Sounds like you've been at the tavern with ol Elway too long:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1441. FLdewey
Quoting PcolaDan:


I feed my ants (the store calls it fire ant killer) and sure enough, they pack up and move 3 feet away to build an upgraded and bigger development.
(I think it's really fertility pills I'm giving them)


I'm glad I'm not the only one with that issue.

I prefer to boil a gallon on water and dump it on the mound. No chemicals to bother the kids, and they dead.

They dead, they baby daddy dead. They all dead!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
1440. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/90L
MARK
19.52N/79.84W



ARC BANDING LAST FRAME
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:


Hoooneeeey?

Where is my supa suit?



You tell me where my suit is WOMAN!


My eeeeving is in danger!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/INV/90L
MARK
19.52N/79.84W




90L is looking better this evening.

What chance do you think it has Keep?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1437. FLdewey
Quoting muddertracker:

Maybe he could call OZ and borrow his suit.


Hoooneeeey?

Where is my supa suit?



You tell me where my suit is WOMAN!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
1436. GetReal
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:


The ants in my yard been building towering condos going on around three days so far
first mound i found was still under the grass
nasty little fellows
oh and some of the biggest tree frogs i'v ever seen ummm


I feed my ants (the store calls it fire ant killer) and sure enough, they pack up and move 3 feet away to build an upgraded and bigger development.
(I think it's really fertility pills I'm giving them)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1434. JLPR2
90L looking alive tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


Are you guys related to Andrew Zimmern? ;>)
LOL

Absolutely not!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and as far as the eating of the jerky worm...roflmbo...i caught my 7 year old trying to catch a lizzard to eat it like survivor man...told him he could NOT eat a lizzard to which he replied...why not...i ate a bug yesterday....YUCK!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1431. Matt74
Quoting FrankZapper:
My 2yo daughter was chewing on one like it was beef jerky.
Sounds like you've been at the tavern with ol Elway too long:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:


The ants in my yard been building towering condos going on around three days so far
first mound i found was still under the grass
nasty little fellows
oh and some of the biggest tree frogs i'v ever seen ummm
Sorry
Quoting BahaHurican:
My mother swears by the ants... If she sees abnormal ant activity, she knows a storm is headed our way.

I, on the other hand, prefer "ensemble" forecasting... take everything into consideration.

Plus models are more fun to watch than ants...
The whole ant thing has a history that goes back to Katrina on this blog. Back when she was in your neck of the woods, and the cone went from dissipation to Cape Hatteras....we got 2 big ant reports from LaDobeLady in HOUMA, La. Big mounds in unusual places. Her son's soccer field particularly.....and we know the rest of the story.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1429. j2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO, 90L's percents will probably be bumped up at 2 AM. If they reactivated it it defiantly deserves credit.

Definatly will be bumped up. Probably to 20-40% range.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
General comment: I think there's a lot out there we still don't understand, and systems like 90L help to remind us...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
Quoting FLdewey:
Oh lord... now Cosmic is heading off into ant analyzing mode. Get a flashlight and some JD in a slurpee cup and go outside Cosmic.

We need a report.

Maybe he could call OZ and borrow his suit.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Hey Taco how are you doing? Whats your prediction on 90L? TIA


I have never given up on 90L and with all due respect something is not right with this one.... I think we will have our 1st Hurricane of the 2011 season in the Gulf in 36hrs to 48 hrs....

How are you tonight and did you get any of the rain today ????

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90l is liking that warm, deep water...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
taking into consideration all the models killed 90L and said not a chance of reformation for over a day...now it is back...would love to know what the critters in S. FL are doing...i am 900 to the north in SC...and tho many people thing critter casting is "cute"...tell that to the capt of the ship i was on in San Diego, CA who watched the birds and the dolphin to predict where to take our ship...needless to say...we never hit more than 20ft swells...mariners addage of red skies at night is not just an old wives tale nor is the rule of 1,2,3...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
My 2yo daughter was chewing on one like it was beef jerky.


Are you guys related to Andrew Zimmern? ;>)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:


The ants in my yard been building towering condos going on around three days so far
first mound i found was still under the grass
nasty little fellows
oh and some of the biggest tree frogs i'v ever seen ummm
Where did u say u were located again? [preparing to avoid that part of the US for rest of season] ;o)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
IMO, 90L's percents will probably be bumped up at 2 AM. If they reactivated it it defiantly deserves credit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1419. FLdewey
Oh lord... now Cosmic is heading off into ant analyzing mode. Get a flashlight and some JD in a slurpee cup and go outside Cosmic.

We need a report.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Ants! That's my territory you're treading in...lol
.
I follow the critters....did see a dead snake(lil' 18" garden criter) on my driveway today. Not sure what that means, first time in 20 years though in that spot.
.
Those shrimpers know their stuff as well. But, maybe they are like the ants, who I've found give out more false positives than true positives.
Now cops, they don't Know anything about weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90L.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Buhdog:


+1

lol, I just love animal and insect casters... so cute.

I like Baha will try to use tools. I hope we can get some di max 2 night!
Mind u, I don't ignore the "signs"... and ants here according to my mother are a "seasonal" sign... as in building up the side of their nest a week before we get torrential tropical rains.... stuff like that. So if she's talking about them, that's a sign I need to look at the forecasting tools we've developed. Actually, mostly she's pretty good about picking out the rainy vs. dry periods... and needless to say so far this year we haven't seen much in the way of ant prognostication... too dry.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
1415. kgb007
Quoting BahaHurican:
My mother swears by the ants... If she sees abnormal ant activity, she knows a storm is headed our way.

I, on the other hand, prefer "ensemble" forecasting... take everything into consideration.

Plus models are more fun to watch than ants...


There is some credence to those ants, my mother swears that when ants appear in her kitchen or bathroom it always precedes rain. I thought BAA Humbug, Phooey its an old wives tale. But now that I'm older an some say wiser, I must say I have noticed these ants, they appear in my bathroom, and low and behold a few days later we get decent rain!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:



ok ok ok "STOP IT Now"....

I have to clean off my darn Laptop Now :o)

Milk and Cookies just donot look good on a radar Map


Taco :o)
Hey Taco how are you doing? Whats your prediction on 90L? TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
My mother swears by the ants... If she sees abnormal ant activity, she knows a storm is headed our way.

I, on the other hand, prefer "ensemble" forecasting... take everything into consideration.


The ants in my yard been building towering condos going on around three days so far
first mound i found was still under the grass
nasty little fellows
oh and some of the biggest tree frogs i'v ever seen ummm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twincomanche:
I agree with you completely, but I have never seen them doing their thing more than 48 hours before the event. Most of my observations have been the behavior is on the order of one to six hours. That's all in the mid-West.


I have lived in CA, OH, VA, WV, KY, FL and now SC... saw first hand the critters go nuts for both Hugo and Floyd days before the storm hit...esp the birds and squirls...small storms like thunder boomers and tornados i agree 1-6 hours...not big stuff tho... and yes ensemble models are fun but have seen massive error in them compared to critters...somehow, they know more...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow 90L is a fighter. I think 90L wants to do something, and is not good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:
i watch the ants first, then the birds and squirls... if a storm is in your vacinity...ants will high tail it inside your house and the birds and squirls will go on a feeding frenzy first then disappear about 2 days b4 the storm hits....as far as worms...not sure of the relation to a ts but do know they do that when there has been quake readings...
Ants! That's my territory you're treading in...lol
.
I follow the critters....did see a dead snake(lil' 18" garden criter) on my driveway today. Not sure what that means, first time in 20 years though in that spot.
.
Those shrimpers know their stuff as well. But, maybe they are like the ants, who I've found give out more false positives than true positives.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
I saw two lizards gettin it on under a tree today... surely that has some significant impact on the tropical situation.

BE SAFE!



ok ok ok "STOP IT Now"....

I have to clean off my darn Laptop Now :o)

Milk and Cookies just donot look good on a radar Map


Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1408. Buhdog
Quoting twincomanche:
I agree with you completely, but I have never seen them doing their thing more than 48 hours before the event. Most of my observations have been the behavior is on the order of one to six hours. That's all in the mid-West.


+1

lol, I just love animal and insect casters... so cute.

I like Baha will try to use tools. I hope we can get some di max 2 night!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
I saw two lizards gettin it on under a tree today... surely that has some significant impact on the tropical situation.

BE SAFE!
That's the heat.LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:


with all due respect back...i have seen my horses stampede before a cloud in the sky when a big storm is coming, leaves turn over on trees as pressure begins to change before it rains, etc...animals can sense a change in weather before a computer ever will...have seen computers say a massive storm is about to hit us and be under warnings and we don't get a drop of rain...computer never saw the storm fall apart...but can watch my dog when a warning comes out to see if we are actually gonna get hit with anything...when it is a dud...his is calm...when it is a boomer...he paces non stop...and this is hours before we are supposed to get it
I agree with you completely, but I have never seen them doing their thing more than 48 hours before the event. Most of my observations have been the behavior is on the order of one to six hours. That's all in the mid-West.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1456 - 1406

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
44 °F
Overcast