A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Wrote a blog on our tropical waves

check it out!
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1505. Grothar
Quoting twincomanche:
We have been waiting for your arrival to add some gravitas to the conversation.


If you are looking for gravitas, you are looking at the wrong person. Frivolity and sarcasm is my forte.
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This is intreasting

6-Hour PQPFs ≥ 0.01"
Forecasts valid 00Z July 26, 2011 - 00Z July 29, 2011


Link
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1502. ncstorm
Quoting floodzonenc:
All the rain around Greenville went POOF... glad you guys are getting some.  Hopefully it won't bother the Swamp Loggers, lol!



LOL!!..I am sure they are out in now..
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Since its dead in here...

00z NAM:
Link


Link
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1500. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:
What's with all this idle banter when we have 90L to watch?

Glad you can join our insect and critter eradication lesson tonight
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Vorticity looks to have deepened some and looks stacked vertically at 850, 700, and 500 MB.
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1496. Grothar
Here is a little image to think about. It is a one month forecast model of what conditions might be in 1 month.

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Insect invasion is a result of complacency in cleanliness. Except for roaches. They are the direct result of the culmination of evolution. They are performing social experiments on you. Be nice to them, or you will not survive their inevitable coup d'etat.
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headz up!!,they activated 90l for the reason of what they think its going to be doing in the future, not neccisarly what its doing now imo
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


lol yup.. this things firing more convection tonight than it has the past two nights combined in my opinion...hope we get some more rain from it later tonight/tomorrow seems like we have been missing the real heavy stuff with the exception of one brief heavy shower around lunch time
I know but I am hoping for more. I think we won't really get it before tomorrow. Doesn't look like it is moving west very much. Seems to have slowed down quite a bit today.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
I sure did Taco.They say we have a 70% chance tomorrow.I couldnt agree more,although I dont see a major out of it ,but definately stong TS or Cat 1.He has just surprised us all.


Yea a Cat1 maybe a low end Cat2 but thats about it. Not seeing anything to make it any bigger.... Now as for where it is going not really sure.... I will say from TX to Pcola.... Thats about the best I can do as for now.... In a few days we will have a better handle on this one...(I Think)

Taco :o)
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1491. Grothar
What's with all this idle banter when we have 90L to watch?
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1490. ncstorm
We are getting hammer here in Wilmington..you would think a tropical storm was here today and its suppose to be worse tomorrow

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM MONDAY...FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM NOW SHIFTS TO
WEDNESDAY AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A WET TUESDAY.
THE NAM AND GFS...WHICH IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION SHOW THE COUPLING
OF INSTABILITY/OMEGA AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ABOVE FIFTY PERCENT FOR
ALL AREAS DURING THIS TIME. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS RUNNING 2.41
INCHES
VIA THE GFS AND STORM MOTIONS OF 10 KNOTS...A FLOOD WATCH
DID CROSS MY MIND BUT AT THIS POINT...WILL SEE HOW THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT FROM A RAINFALL STANDPOINT AND LET THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT EVALUATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE NAM DRAMATICALLY DRIES THE COLUMN OUT AS WHAT
IS BY THAT TIME A MID LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED OFFSHORE WHEREAS THE
GFS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE FURTHER INLAND
KEEPING THE REGION IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AS I MENTIONED
EARLIER...HAVE OPTED FOR THE WETTER SOLUTION AND TRENDED POPS UP.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE USED THE ADJMAV BIAS CORRECTED ACROSS THE
BOARD TRIMMING A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHS VIA THE WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE AND ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS CITING
THE SAME REASON.

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You would probably be a good conductor up there too LOL.


lol yup.. this things firing more convection tonight than it has the past two nights combined in my opinion...hope we get some more rain from it later tonight/tomorrow seems like we have been missing the real heavy stuff with the exception of one brief heavy shower around lunch time
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Emcf.You are correct it does work well on fleas too.LOL
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Near Houma?
.
.
.
.
.
.
.


Dulac
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We need a nice juicy MJO cycle to move across the Tropical MDR, stat :)
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1483. emcf30
Quoting mrsalagranny:
I have the best solution for killing ants.Mix Dawn dish liquid with water in a spray bottle,and spray them buggers.It really works.I do it all the time in my house.


Works excellent for fleas also
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


yeah i think its a ways off..... bet from the top of the east end of the bluff in the brac would be a cool place to watch from tonight.....though it looks like its raining pretty hard there ;-p
You would probably be a good conductor up there too LOL.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
best ant killer in the world...50/50 borax and sugar...pour it on the mound and stir em up just a little...they come up for the sugar and take the borax at the same time...borax will put the last nail in that tiny little condo coffin... :)


That's the recipe to take out cockroaches too.
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I have the best solution for killing ants.Mix Dawn dish liquid with water in a spray bottle,and spray them buggers.It really works.I do it all the time in my house.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
IDK but it is flashing like crazy up here but not really hearing any thunder so must still be a ways off.


yeah i think its a ways off..... bet from the top of the east end of the bluff in the brac would be a cool place to watch from tonight.....though it looks like its raining pretty hard there ;-p
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This blob has gone to the birds. :)

Night yall.
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ok...im out...work early in the am...back tomorrow afternoon...night all
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


how far off is it? ive been waiting for the storms to get closer to get pics looks like some coming in from the north east soon
IDK but it is flashing like crazy up here but not really hearing any thunder so must still be a ways off.
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Quoting FLdewey:


Yeah now don't get me wrong, I've tried gas too. It works, but... well yeah you know.

I was a disbeliever too... try it. When the boiling water soaks into the mound it steams them all to death. Come back 10 minutes later and there will be a nice shiny ring of ant death.

DANG I hate those little freaks.


You and me both. Between you and tiggeriffic I have two new methods to try. :) Gotta do something, the hills are getting so high they gonna have to put a red light on top to meet building height codes.
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1472. j2008
Quoting mrsalagranny:
I sure did Taco.They say we have a 70% chance tomorrow.I couldnt agree more,although I dont see a major out of it ,but definately stong TS or Cat 1.He has just surprised us all.

I think that I might agree to that statement..........In about 24 Hours.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Quoting EasttexasAggie:



EYE?

No it's still in the mid levels.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


now if ya really wanna have some fun...give em grits...dry grits...they eat it and explode cuz it swells up inside em...bout like giving a seagull alka seltzer (not that ive ever done that mind you) and btw...that one was just for you taco... :)
If you have mice mix cornmeal with a little cement and when they drink water it hardens and no more trouble with them.
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Quoting Mucinex:

When we were kids my friends brother killed a lizard and his Dad (who was a Navy Seal) told him, "You know the rules, you kill it, you eat it." So, he made him build a little campfire and rotisserie spit and made him roast it and it eat. He cried like a baby. We all laughed our arses off.

Also, I'm in SFL and I suddenly have outside black yard ants, coming out of the electrical outlet in the kitchen.
Bugcasters 1.


roflmbo
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Lots of lightning here tonight.


how far off is it? ive been waiting for the storms to get closer to get pics looks like some coming in from the north east soon
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1467. emcf30
Quoting FLdewey:


I'm glad I'm not the only one with that issue.

I prefer to boil a gallon on water and dump it on the mound. No chemicals to bother the kids, and they dead.

They dead, they baby daddy dead. They all dead!

Oh no not the baby daddy. LOL
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When I was young and cruel, I would tape M-80's into toad's mouths. Not much more to do in Houma in the summer.
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Quoting taco2me61:


I have never given up on 90L and with all due respect something is not right with this one.... I think we will have our 1st Hurricane of the 2011 season in the Gulf in 36hrs to 48 hrs....

How are you tonight and did you get any of the rain today ????

Taco :o)
I sure did Taco.They say we have a 70% chance tomorrow.I couldnt agree more,although I dont see a major out of it ,but definately stong TS or Cat 1.He has just surprised us all.
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Quoting FLdewey:


Yeah now don't get me wrong, I've tried gas too. It works, but... well yeah you know.

I was a disbeliever too... try it. When the boiling water soaks into the mound it steams them all to death. Come back 10 minutes later and there will be a nice shiny ring of ant death.

DANG I hate those little freaks.


now if ya really wanna have some fun...give em grits...dry grits...they eat it and explode cuz it swells up inside em...bout like giving a seagull alka seltzer (not that ive ever done that mind you) and btw...that one was just for you taco... :)
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Quoting IceCoast:




EYE?
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1462. Matt74
Quoting FrankZapper:
Elway says go **** ********!
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Greetings from DFW, TX. Morning low was 85F, tying the highest min. temp record of all tome from 1939. High a juicy hot 106F. No rain. Day 24 in a row, 31,total over 100F. TX needs a nice TS to park over the entire state. No relief on.sight.
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Quoting Patrap:
If you switch to FireFox as a Browser, it automatizes those bad HTML sized images.

Most if not all scripts here are developed with FF in mind
Exactly. Idk why people waste their time with internet explorer, FireFox and Google Chrome are both faster, safer, and they don't screw up the blog.

Yet still we have someone complaining every other day about how Internet Explorer isn't working.
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1459. nigel20
Low wind shear around 90L
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
and as far as the eating of the jerky worm...roflmbo...i caught my 7 year old trying to catch a lizzard to eat it like survivor man...told him he could NOT eat a lizzard to which he replied...why not...i ate a bug yesterday....YUCK!
My offspring is also a fan, and has eaten worms, just because...bleh!!
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1457. Mucinex
Quoting tiggeriffic:
and as far as the eating of the jerky worm...roflmbo...i caught my 7 year old trying to catch a lizzard to eat it like survivor man...told him he could NOT eat a lizzard to which he replied...why not...i ate a bug yesterday....YUCK!

When we were kids my friends brother killed a lizard and his Dad (who was a Navy Seal) told him, "You know the rules, you kill it, you eat it." So, he made him build a little campfire and rotisserie spit and made him roast it and it eat. He cried like a baby. We all laughed our arses off.

Also, I'm in SFL and I suddenly have outside black yard ants, coming out of the electrical outlet in the kitchen.
Bugcasters 1.
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Lots of lightning here tonight.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.