A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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1556. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
IMAGE CENTRED ISLE OF YOUTH

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1554. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1542. Tazmanian 3:55 AM GMT on July 26, 2011:
what kind of name is this Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN ?


Laotian meaning for bird
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90L is really looking good now wow
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Well everyone have a good night.Be Blessed and keep an eye on 90L for me.Good Night all.
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1550. TXHolly
Quoting CosmicEvents:
SorryThe whole ant thing has a history that goes back to Katrina on this blog. Back when she was in your neck of the woods, and the cone went from dissipation to Cape Hatteras....we got 2 big ant reports from LaDobeLady in HOUMA, La. Big mounds in unusual places. Her son's soccer field particularly.....and we know the rest of the story.


I hope things don't happen that way this year. I've seen a lot more ant mounds in my yard this year than usual.
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1549. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Grothar, that convection that is emerging Africa has been introduced at 00z surface analysis as a wave. It may be a player down the road.



Very nice 850mb vort with that one.

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Quoting JRRP:

mail
Thank you.
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1547. JRRP
Quoting mrsalagranny:
May I have the link please? TIA

mail
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Grothar, that convection that is emerging Africa has been introduced at 00z surface analysis as a wave. It may be a player down the road.

yes it will. I talked about that wave in my blog.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
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1544. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/90L
MARK
19.52N/79.84W


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tiggerific "...but still watch the critters and the trees..."
1400 taco2me61 "I have to say Ants. just over the last few weeks I seen a Stump thats 4' high and the Ants have moved to the top of it and built a mound out of it...."

No problemo. Just keep your car door and trunk open. Then when the flood comes, you can stand on its roof without worry about getting washed away.
Now ifn them ants start building an Ark on top of that stump, you may have a problem.
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what kind of name is this Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN ?
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Quoting Grothar:
The wave in the Atlantic right now should be watched closely in the next few days. There should be two good ones emerging this week off of Africa. I normally don't pay attention to these waves this early, but this season might be a little different than others.





Grothar, that convection that is emerging Africa has been introduced at 00z surface analysis as a wave. It may be a player down the road.

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1540. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
NWS Tiyan, Guam
Tropical Cyclone Alert
===========================

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI AND FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.

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1539. Grothar
Quoting CybrTeddy:


If that happened this blog would be in doom mode.


Hey, T. Still up?
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If 90L potentially gets stronger, will it track more north?
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SURFACE RIDGING and a UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
according to this

GULF OF MEXICO...

Link
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1535. emcf30
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1534. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN (T1108)
12:00 PM JST July 26 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (1000 hPa) located at 14.2N 123.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
================
140 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 15.5N 121.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 17.6N 117.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 18.9N 113.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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1533. Grothar
The wave in the Atlantic right now should be watched closely in the next few days. There should be two good ones emerging this week off of Africa. I normally don't pay attention to these waves this early, but this season might be a little different than others.



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Angela wrote, "Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season." Just curious...Can someone tell me if we are in a weak phase of MJO right now? (See I know just enough to be dangerous ;)
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Quoting JRRP:
May I have the link please? TIA
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1530. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:
Hey Gro, whats your take on 90L...


Not dead yet! Look after Tuesday.
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1529. JRRP
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Quoting Grothar:


You're lucky you can flash back to 2004. I would like a flash back to what I had for lunch.


ROFL!
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1525. emcf30
Hey Gro, whats your take on 90L...
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Quoting Grothar:
Here is a little image to think about. It is a one month forecast model of what conditions might be in 1 month.



If that happened this blog would be in doom mode.
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1523. Grothar
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Quoting FLdewey:


I'm glad I'm not the only one with that issue.

I prefer to boil a gallon on water and dump it on the mound. No chemicals to bother the kids, and they dead.

They dead, they baby daddy dead. They all dead!


I use boiling water also. Only thing that works 100% and non-toxic.
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1521. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:


You're lucky you can flash back to 2004. I would like a flash back to what I had for lunch.

LOL
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yea I'm out to, got to go boil some water :)
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Quoting blsealevel:
This is intreasting

6-Hour PQPFs ≥ 0.01"
Forecasts valid 00Z July 26, 2011 - 00Z July 29, 2011


Link
blsealevel that is a lot of moisture in the Northern GOM.What is causing that? TIA
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1518. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:


So we have hit a new low? I didn't think it was possible.


Well the bar has been set. Kinda hard to imagine what the next new low will be.
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1517. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4B
TROPICAL STORM JUANING (NOCK-TEN)
8:30 AM PhST July 26 2011
==============================

"JUANING" has intensified into a storm and now threatens Quezon-Aurora Area.

At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Juaning located at 14.5°N 124.5°E or 90 km north northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal warning #2
---------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Catanduanes
2. Albay
3. Camarines Provinces

Signal warning #1
-----------

Luzon Region
========
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Ilocos Sur
3. Abra
4. Apayao
5. Kalinga
6. Cagayan
7. Isabela
8. Ifugao
9. Mt. Province
10. La Union
11. Pangasinan
12. Benguet
13. Nueva Vizcaya
14. Nueva Ecija
15. Quirino
16. Aurora
17.Quezon
18.Polillo Island
19.Sorsogon

Additional Information
=========================

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signals #2 & # 1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

TS "JUANING" will continue to bring rains over Central and Southern Luzon and of Visayas.

The public and disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
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ok I'm out for tonight :o)

All yall have fun and will check back in tomorrow....


Taco :o)
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1514. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:


I was looking at that earlier. Kinda scary. Makes me have flashbacks of 2004


You're lucky you can flash back to 2004. I would like a flash back to what I had for lunch.
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Only if you dream it
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1512. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:

Glad you can join our insect and critter eradication lesson tonight


So we have hit a new low? I didn't think it was possible.
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Taco I know what you mean.I beleive if it could have developed a little more say at least depression status then there would be some major trouble for the GOM.
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90L is getting its act together - more to come tomorrow. The wave at 38W looks impressive.


Link
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Well it pretty much shows the same thing on post 1501
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Complete Update

90L is back for another chance of a CAT 1 in the GOM :)


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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1507. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:
Here is a little image to think about. It is a one month forecast model of what conditions might be in 1 month.



I was looking at that earlier. Kinda scary. Makes me have flashbacks of 2004
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Wrote a blog on our tropical waves

check it out!
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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