A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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Quoting alfabob:

Radar doesn't lie, there is a large band forming and it's not where CIMSS has it.

It's just now consolidating, but you're correctamundo.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


No I mean was he talking to a girl? hahaha
Oh...lol..it's past my bed time...yes, he was talking to a girl who is a friend, but not a girlfried...whatever that means in 12 year old boy language...
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:

It's just what I can see with my eyes, but the instruments above our heads can see the spin even better than our eyes imagine.

For example, here's a measure of spin in the atmosphere, close to the surface. The yellow under Cuba is what you're looking for.




Thank you Oracle. I believe that i have seen this referred to as a vorticity map, although i have seen people post them at different levels. 700mb, 850mb and so on. I will assume that yellow is more spin?
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Quoting muddertracker:
Nah..my son..lol. He's working on his "sneak technique." 0 told him it needs some work.


No I mean was he talking to a girl? hahaha
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Link

LSU infrared...looks like CIMISS has it right..imo..where do you have it Alfabob?
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Quoting want2lrn:
Good Evening, as you can tell by my screen name i don't know much and since it is a little slow right now i thought maybe someone could educate me a little. Post 1586 just mentioned a "spin" beneath the blow up of thunderstorms. This will seem like a stupid question, but i am having a hard time identifying the spin. Is it truly a spin as thought of b the definition or is there something that i can look for to better identify? TIA


The Center of circulation is located here:

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Quoting extreme236:
90L's holding up well tonight but still has a lot of organizing to do. Needs to be more than a blob :p

I'm just a blog...yeah I'm only a blob...One day I'll be a storm! I guess I've just dated myself with that one?
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Quoting want2lrn:
Good Evening, as you can tell by my screen name i don't know much and since it is a little slow right now i thought maybe someone could educate me a little. Post 1586 just mentioned a "spin" beneath the blow up of thunderstorms. This will seem like a stupid question, but i am having a hard time identifying the spin. Is it truly a spin as thought of b the definition or is there something that i can look for to better identify? TIA

It's just what I can see with my eyes, but the instruments above our heads can see the spin even better than our eyes imagine.

For example, here's a measure of spin in the atmosphere, close to the surface. The yellow under Cuba is what you're looking for.


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90L's holding up well tonight but still has a lot of organizing to do. Needs to be more than a blob :p
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Was it a girl?
Nah..my son..lol. He's working on his "sneak technique." I told him it needs some work.
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Quoting muddertracker:
Just busted my 12 year old on his phone..lol..thought I'd check in..I wonder if 90l will keep its convection firing?


Was it a girl?
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Just busted my 12 year old on his phone..lol..thought I'd check in..I wonder if 90l will keep its convection firing?
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Good Evening, as you can tell by my screen name i don't know much and since it is a little slow right now i thought maybe someone could educate me a little. Post 1586 just mentioned a "spin" beneath the blow up of thunderstorms. This will seem like a stupid question, but i am having a hard time identifying the spin. Is it truly a spin as thought of b the definition or is there something that i can look for to better identify? TIA
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The mid level spin is clearly visible in the moving picture just published. I don't know if there's a surface reflection or not, but it's right underneath that explosion of thunderstorms.

It looks like explosive development to me too, as if the skater is about to land someplace.
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1584. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/90L
MARK
22.2N/83.3W


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1581. j2008
Think I'm out for the night. Ill cheak in at 11PM AZ time just to see what the NHC says about 90L. Looking for a TD tommorow afternoon if this keeps up.
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
Do we remember this? Catastrophic....

Cyclone Sidr crashed the shores of Bangladesh on November 15th, 2007, bringing with it 150 MPH winds and a 7 foot tidal surge. When the water receded, more than 3,000 were dead, and 5,000 missing. Three million houses were completely destroyed, and a shocking eight million people were affected by the storm.

Hurricane Katrina

people killed: 1,836
people missing: 705
homes destroyed: 275,000

Cyclone SIDR

people killed: 3,292
people missing: forecasted: 7,000
homes destroyed: 9 Million



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1579. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL STORM JUANING (NOCK-TEN)
11:00 AM PhST July 26 2011
==============================

Tropical Storm "JUANING" continues to move West Northwest and posing a real threat to Quezon-Aurora Area.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Juaning (Nock-ten) located at 14.9°N 123.7°E or 100 km northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal warning #2
---------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Catanduanes
2. Albay
3. Camarines Norte
4. Camarines Sur
5. Quezon
6. Polillo Island
7. Aurora

Signal warning #1
-----------

Luzon Region
========
1. Apayao
2. Cagayan
3. Abra
4. Kalinga
5. Ilocos Norte
6. Ilocos Sur
7. Mt. Province
8. Isabela
9. Ifugao
10. La union
11. Benguet
12. Nueva Vizcaya
13. Quirino
14. Pangasinan
15. Nueva Ecija
16. Tarlac
17. Zambales
18. Pampanga
19. Bulacan
20. Bataan
21. Rizal
22. Cavite
23. Laguna
24. Batangas
25. Marinduque
26. Burias Island
27. Sorsogon
28. Metro Manila

Additional Information
=========================

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signals #2 & # 1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

TS "JUANING" will continue to bring rains over Central and Southern Luzon and of Visayas.

The public and disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
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1578. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
later xcool
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Quoting xcool:
bye all


Night xcool. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting stillwaiting:
if a surface low is begining to form.it would be in the areajust south of the isle of youth......houston this looks like a possible TC heading in your direction imo


Sigh.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1575. xcool
bye all
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1574. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting alfabob:
Why is pressure lower near cayman islands (29.89in and decreasing) rather than western Caribbean?
just updated 29.92 .03 rise
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1573. xcool
AtHomeInTX hey ;)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1550 TXHolly "I hope things don't happen that way this year. I've seen a lot more ant mounds in my yard this year than usual."

Hafta dig deeper to get to tolerably cool ground. More dirt being moved means a bigger mound and/or more mounds per nest.
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Quoting xcool:



00zgfs


Hmmmm. Hey xcool. everyone! Had unexpected company. Looks like I missed a couple things.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
00z GFS develops another EPAC system.

90L becomes a TD at best.
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1568. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting stillwaiting:
if a surface low is begining to form.it would be in the areajust south of the isle of youth......houston this looks like a possible TC heading in your direction imo


after that lies ahead the gateway too the gulf
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Quoting Grothar:
The wave in the Atlantic right now should be watched closely in the next few days. There should be two good ones emerging this week off of Africa. I normally don't pay attention to these waves this early, but this season might be a little different than others.





I agree. This one could be trouble down the road.
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1566. xcool


84hrs
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, T. Still up?


I'm around, whats up?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting xcool:



00zgfs


Starting to look like an Erin from 2007 situation.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
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1561. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
you're welcome
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1560. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
12:00 PM JST July 26 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 8.8N 146.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 10.0N 144.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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if a surface low is begining to form.it would be in the areajust south of the isle of youth......houston this looks like a possible TC heading in your direction imo
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1558. xcool



00zgfs
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Laotian meaning for bird


thanks
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1556. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
IMAGE CENTRED ISLE OF YOUTH

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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