A heat wave recap; generally quiet tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on July 25, 2011

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Last week's U.S. heat wave has finally subsided, and most of the Northeast will see some cool highs in the 70s today. Unfortunately, the Midwest, and mid-Atlantic will continue to see high temperatures in the 90s for the rest of this week, and the southern Plains will be forced to continue to endure triple-digits.

According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2,100 daily high maximum temperature records have been set so far in July 2011, and 51% of those were set last week. 4,734 daily high minimum temperature records have been set so far this month, and 55% of those were set last week. Here's a breakdown of last week's records for the period July 18 through July 24:

High Maximum:

• 1,076 warmest maximum temperature for the date
• 90 warmest maximum temperature for the month of July
• 56 warmest maximum temperature of all time

High Minimum:

• 2,595 warmest minimum temperature for the date
• 207 warmest minimum temperature for the month of July
• 123 warmest minimum temperature of all time

The number of warm minimum temperatures is especially disturbing, as these tend to have more of an impact on health than the high maximums. When the temperature remains high at night, it prevents the body from being able to recover from the day's heat. According to NOAA, from July 1 through July 19, there were 22 heat-related deaths in the United States. Reuters is reporting that 34 deaths resulted from this heat wave. In an average year, heat remains the number one weather-related killer in this country. In some ways, the overnight low temperatures are the best way to quantify a heat wave, possibly even better than the heat index.


Figure 1. Map of daily high maximum temperature records for the period July 1 through July 25 from NCDC. Red circles without an X denote a broken record; red circles with an X denote a tied record.

Tropical Overview

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L

The wave formerly known as Invest 90L is moving slowly west through the Caribbean near Jamaica. A new burst of convection started this morning, which will undoubtedly produce some heavy rain over southern Cuba and Jamaica. While low-level circulation has remained about the same since late last week, the wave has become top-heavy with increased circulation at higher levels (700-500mb). None of the models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NGPS, UKMET) are developing this wave as tracks into the Gulf of Mexico, and they're all in agreement that the path will be toward far southern Texas or northern Mexico, except for the ECMWF deterministic run, which hints that it will take a turn toward the northern Gulf. However, this model hasn't shown actual development from the wave since Tuesday or Wednesday of last week.

NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go.


Figure 2. Visible tropical Atlantic satellite captured at 11:14am EDT on Monday.

Other North Atlantic waves

There are a couple other waves to speak of that have left the coast of Africa in the past few days, one located near 40W and the other closer to Africa, around 30W, which is tangled up in the monsoon trough. The former is expected to take a southerly track, skirting northern South America, and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Given this track, none of the models are suggesting it will develop. However, tropical cyclones that spin up in the Bay of Campeche generally have a short forecast lead time, so it's something to watch. The latter wave could take a slightly more northern track through the Caribbean islands, and a couple of the models seem to favor this wave for development at the end of their runs.

Tropical wave activity has been lacking so far this season, but climatologically we should see an increase in African easterly waves in August and September.

Angela

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1656. scott39
NHC doesnt like what they see in the GOM for developement.
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Quoting muddertracker:
Orange at the next TWO? Could be...hmmmm...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
30 percent chance coming up


HOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Can't believe I'm staying up this late for a wave, lol. It does seem to be sustaining a good amount of convection. I also don't see it hitting the Yucatan, more likely to skirt the western tip of Cuba or shoot the gap from the looks of it. 20% for the TWO, but I feel like they'll play it more conservative and give 90L a 10% in the next 48.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
1651. scott39
NHC-10%
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1650. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
they helded at 10 wait till first light

later all iam off
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That I never figured out. Doesn't look too awfully strong compared to the other colors on that scale.

very interesting
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
30 percent chance coming up


10% at best IMO. Maybe 30% at around 8pm if this can get its act together.

Hope this doesn't cancel my flight to Cancun...

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Quoting weatherganny:


ok I looked at the model what is it making landfall as? Dont know much about the model interpretation. TIA


That I never figured out. Doesn't look too awfully strong compared to the other colors on that scale.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Orange at the next TWO? Could be...hmmmm...
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1644. scott39
I hope they put a floater on it soon.
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1643. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
30 percent chance coming up
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh no I don't have that kinda brain power on a good day. Lol. I'll link you my Nogaps site. If it comes up with a security warning just accept the site anyway.

Link


ok I looked at the model what is it making landfall as? Dont know much about the model interpretation. TIA
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh no I don't have that kinda brain power on a good day. Lol. I'll link you my Nogaps site. If it comes up with a security warning just accept the site anyway.

Link
Thanks! Saved it!
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1639. Gearsts
The Gulf of Guinea sst anomalies have warmed somewhat, however the African Monsoon Trof is still fairly far north, and regardless of any further warming in the Gulf of Guinea, the thermodynamics have done their handy work, in cutting down on African Dust.Based on both the NAO forecast, and the CFS model pretty much indicating a negative NAO, and information in the EUROSIP ensemble regarding MSLP, It looks to be busy come AUG-OCT.
By:StormW
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Quoting muddertracker:

I'll take your word for it..I'm way too tired to try and manuever the PSU e-wall.


Oh no I don't have that kinda brain power on a good day. Lol. I'll link you my Nogaps site. If it comes up with a security warning just accept the site anyway.

Link
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1636. scott39
Quoting bigwes6844:
If 90L would slow down in the next three days there will hardly be any wind shear in the GOM in 72hrs. but if it makes it in the GOM within today or wednesday it won't survive wind shear too high.
It is... The last 6 hours is the slowest it has moved...14.6mph
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Quoting bigwes6844:
If 90L would slow down in the next three days there will hardly be any wind shear in the GOM in 72hrs. but if it makes it in the GOM within today or wednesday it won't survive wind shear too high.

It seems to be moving about 10/12 right now? (guess)?
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


It showed that last run. maybe I need to look at t again. Now the NOGAPS shows that.

I'll take your word for it..I'm way too tired to try and manuever the PSU e-wall.
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1632. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/90L
MARK
22.2N/83.3W


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If 90L would slow down in the next three days there will hardly be any wind shear in the GOM in 72hrs. but if it makes it in the GOM within today or wednesday it won't survive wind shear too high.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
That GFS landfallis in the same place as Rita a 6 years ago?


It showed that last run. maybe I need to look at t again. Now the NOGAPS shows that.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1629. scott39
I see it going over the very tip of West Cuba before going over the Yucatan. Its already at 19.5N.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Interesting that the EURO and 18Z GFS both send this system more Northwestward after entering the gulf where the Euro is pushing much needed rainfall into the big bend of Texas and the GFS hinting at the TX/La border...thats two pretty big outliers there
That GFS landfallis in the same place as Rita a 6 years ago?
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Quoting scott39:
Yea, I dont see it touching the Yucatan.
Me either...if anything, I think it might brush Cuba...I guess I'm not sold on the Mexico/S. Texas model..I think it will get pulled. Earlier a few people were adamant about sheer killing 90l...not seeing that either. SHIPS looks pretty good.
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Well NOGAPS sends it into TX/LA. Now that the GFS isn't showing that anymore. Lol.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
1625. scott39
Quoting muddertracker:
Might "shoot the gap."
Yea, I dont see it touching the Yucatan.
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Quoting scott39:
90L is heading WNW at 184 degrees.
Might "shoot the gap."
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1623. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1622. scott39
90L is heading WNW at 184 degrees.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Just as well my husbands work rotation has him overnights during hurricane season every year. That's my excuse and I'm sticking to it! Lol.
That's a good one! You stay on the same clock, too.
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Quoting muddertracker:

When the season really gets going I've been known to set my alarm to catch the TWO..depressing, I know...


Just as well my husbands work rotation has him overnights during hurricane season every year. That's my excuse and I'm sticking to it! Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Wow! I don't see how the NHC can't at least think this has a chance! I should go to bed. But not a snowballs chance in Texas I do that before I see what the NHC says. Sigh. I see a lot of sleepless nights ahead of me this season. I may need a new hobby. :)

When the season really gets going I've been known to set my alarm to catch the TWO..depressing, I know...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Nock-Ten has to be the best name since Lionrock of 2006.



Nock-Ten, there's a name!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Hey, since when was stormjunkies page taken down!?!

Link
It's down? I went there about a month ago and it was severely depleted...lots of links I didn't save on my own b/c I knew they were on his site were taken off.
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Quoting muddertracker:
Link

LSU infrared...looks like CIMISS has it right..imo..where do you have it Alfabob?


Wow! I don't see how the NHC can't at least think this has a chance! I should go to bed. But not a snowballs chance in Texas I do that before I see what the NHC says. Sigh. I see a lot of sleepless nights ahead of me this season. I may need a new hobby. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


steady as she goes all ahead full


KOG has the con!
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Hey, since when was stormjunkies page taken down!?!

Link
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Nock-Ten has to be the best name since Lionrock of 2006.

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1611. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
lets not wake up invest 90L


steady as she goes all ahead full
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Quoting want2lrn:


Thank you Oracle. I believe that i have seen this referred to as a vorticity map, although i have seen people post them at different levels. 700mb, 850mb and so on. I will assume that yellow is more spin?

They 're right, we should focus on the radar image for now. This is a consolidating system .... RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING.
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Alfa...yeah 80/19 does look pretty good!
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Quoting muddertracker:
Oh...lol..it's past my bed time...yes, he was talking to a girl who is a friend, but not a girlfried...whatever that means in 12 year old boy language...


means he wishes she was!! hahaha, well we all get to that age...
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1607. nigel20
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Quoting alfabob:

Radar doesn't lie, there is a large band forming and it's not where CIMSS has it.

It's just now consolidating, but you're correctamundo.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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