July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I disagree. Vorticity has increased somewhat which leads me to believe SOMETHING is still there.
Best vorticity since it entered the CAR, IIRC... most forecasters were not expecting much from this storm before today, so I guess if anything happens it'll be in this 48 hour period... still not really slowing down, though.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yes. It would be great! I hope it's a rain maker for a lot of my neighbors to the south. We may get some up here on the upper coast too. I know this isn't Dolly but we got rain from her outer bands so fingers crossed. Depending on where it rounds the edge of this high it could be very beneficial. :)
The Heat Goes On ... And On ... And On


There's no relief in sight the last week of July as temperatures will remain above average with highs in the low 100s. Heat index values will make it feel as if the temperatures is near 110 degrees each afternoon.


Each evening, expect temperatures to fall into the 80s around midnight and then eventually into the upper 70s by sunrise. Skies will remain clear with a few clouds developing in the morning.








The ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere will be in control of our weather for the next several days. It will keep a lid on our atmosphere meaning no rain through the week. Highs Monday through Wednesday will be between 100 and 105 for much of the area. The high will move east of the area by the end of the week resulting in more cloud cover and a small drop in afternoon highs. Specifics are found on the YNN 8 Day Forecast.


A tropical wave in the Caribbean has only a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. This very low chance is due to its interaction with the land masses of Hispaniola and Cuba during the next few days. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are accompaning this disturbance. The computer models are still taking this system into the Gulf heading to the coast of Mexico by the end of the week. Just one model carries the system to Texas.

Unfortunately the High Pressure system is stuck over the Center Part of Texas, any rain chances will be on the outer edges of Texas unfortunately.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
First time since I started looking at the vorticity with this that it looks like one circulation rather than a "twinnie"... Now we may see some interesting things today. Though with the ULLs to the west of it not sure how that will work...
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90L RIP
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Rather impressive TWave coming into view at 30W.



sweet spot?
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yes. It would be great! I hope it's a rain maker for a lot of my neighbors to the south. We may get some up here on the upper coast too. I know this isn't Dolly but we got rain from her outer bands so fingers crossed. Depending on where it rounds the edge of this high it could be very beneficial. :)
Dolly was a real rainmaker. She was not designated until right after she passed us but brought flooding rains and very gusty winds.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You do see that whatever 90L becomes is expected to move into Central or South Texas. I know it is much needed.


Yes. It would be great! I hope it's a rain maker for a lot of my neighbors to the south. We may get some up here on the upper coast too. I know this isn't Dolly but we got rain from her outer bands so fingers crossed. Depending on where it rounds the edge of this high it could be very beneficial. :)
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self designated king of the wishcasters?
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Morning everybody... que bola, as they used to say in Cuba one time ago?

Here we had overnight showers, but nothing windy enough to wake me up.... lol...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
Quoting clwstmchasr:


He is a bit bullish. However, 90L is no longer.
I disagree. Vorticity has increased somewhat which leads me to believe SOMETHING is still there.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


You beat me to it. Very interesting indeed.
You do see that whatever 90L becomes is expected to move into Central or South Texas. I know it is much needed.
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Quoting islander101010:
rookie forecaster compared to dr masters
Except Dr. Masters has not posted for a few days. Crown Weather is forecasting according to conditions NOW.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Crown Weather TWD spells it all out for 90L.


You beat me to it. Very interesting indeed.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Crown Weather TWD spells it all out for 90L.
rookie forecaster compared to dr masters
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4017
I'm happy for my neighbors but...I GIVE UP! Sigh.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST AND MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY BUT
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY WELL WIN OUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SO FAR THIS
SUMMER AND LIMIT THE SURGE TO OF MOISTURE TO SOUTH TEXAS.


Lol. Insert curse word here. :)
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850mb vorticity has shown a slight increase over the last 6 hours. looks like the voricity maximum is just about to go over open water..see what happens over the next 3-4 days until reaching the southern tex coast
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Good morning. I think when it moves just a little more west off that point on Cuba it will begin developing.
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Link

Crown Weather TWD spells it all out for 90L.
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everybody snoozing? is the circulation, if we want to call it thatm over cuba,looks like it to me, took a nw jog?
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from grand cayman
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hmmmmmmm
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hmmmmmm
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hi tom
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was the NAM sorry, not the GFS
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Quoting nigel20:
Is that the first for the GFS? I hadnt seen anything from GFS as far as development.
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Quoting alfabob:
just curious alfa, was there something on the 300mb chart that's got your eye? Just wondering why you posted it to see if there's anything we should be watching
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1982. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09
15:00 PM JST July 25 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 13.1N 127.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 14.6N 124.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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1980. JLPR2
Well, couldn't sleep... *sigh*

I see the Nogaps is showing 90L's big brother, the track is almost identical.



ECMWF hints at it.

Look to PR's south.

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A best case scenario for persistent 90L would in fact be as a big rainmaker for Texas. Here is the WU chart showing the general location of the high in the Gulf and steering currents where 90 is probably headed....Looks Mexico or Texas to me......

Link
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Texas could use the rain...but nothing more! We have been drenched here in La. the past couple weeks but I know Texas needs it.
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Whether 90L develops or not, and it is starting to move at a pretty fast clip, it is going to go west towards Mexico and/or Texas due to the high pattern blocking in the Northern Gulf.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO, I still highly doubt 90L will develop. Again, if anything 90L's track is what is important, as storms may follow a similar track in a few weeks. Look at what the NOGAPS is showing, though not going to happen at all look at the track it takes - identical to 90L. Regarding 90L, land interaction has destroyed all the vort, completely opened wave, and I will be very surprised if at any point in its life if it develops.


So you are saying later storms may track the same way?
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Quoting weatherganny:



Just in from work, I just thought I would check and see if we are going to get any action in the gulf any time soon. Guess not although I haven't totally give up of 90L.


Same here, just checking in. I hope it doesn't get into the gulf all fired up!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey, how you doing this very early morning........LOOKS LIKE THE NITE CREW IS alive and kicking tonite........LOL



Just in from work, I just thought I would check and see if we are going to get any action in the gulf any time soon. Guess not although I haven't totally give up of 90L.
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Quoting weatherganny:



Hello Tampa!


Hey, how you doing this very early morning........LOOKS LIKE THE NITE CREW IS alive and kicking tonite........LOL
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Quoting alfabob:
It actually looks like it is attempting to develop on the surface, probably realized what Dmax is for. Going to clip the coast of Cuba before it gets into open waters, I'd say if it keeps up the convection it has a 30% chance in 48 hours.



Models are certainly not giving it much a chance. If you believe in models then a very low chance if any would be correct. I would keep it at a low chance exactly as NHC is doing only because of the low shear in the Forecast!
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Quoting TampaSpin:



CMC is also hinting at something as well in the Central Atlantic.



Hello Tampa!
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1967. scott39
Im sure the NHC uses technology that we dont even know about.
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CMC is also hinting at something as well in the Central Atlantic.
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1964. scott39
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO, I still highly doubt 90L will develop. Again, if anything 90L's track is what is important, as storms may follow a similar track in a few weeks. Look at what the NOGAPS is showing, though not going to happen at all look at the track it takes - identical to 90L. Regarding 90L, land interaction has destroyed all the vort, completely opened wave, and I will eat crow if it does develop.
Have you read the way the NHC is wording thier discussion? There is not the "if any" developement, which leads up to the near 0% and then RIP.
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Keep in mind that this model is usually very conservative and often one of the last to show system development. So this does bare some watching.
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DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR
20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS
CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
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Quoting scott39:
So low shear where 90L is headed?


Yep, it appears so, as that is why i am not dropping the chance of 90L to develop! That low of shear anywhere near a Wave is playing with fire. Never know tho if the Shear will actually be that low as Shear can change so fast in just a 24hr time frame. Need to just monitor it tho!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.