July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting TampaSpin:



Would you stop Wishcasting for rain PLease...........LOL........hey Brother. Ya i sure hope you all get the needed rain!


No let him wish! Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. As I mentioned earlier this am (insomnia issue around 2:00 am) best result for 90L would be for it to hold together and bring some rain to Texas down the road per the current ridging pattern in the Gulf (see link). Let's see what happens and maybe Texas will get lucky.

Link


That would be a best case indeed. :) Fingers crossed.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. As I mentioned earlier this am (insomnia issue around 2:00 am) best result for 90L would be for it to hold together and bring some rain to Texas down the road per the current ridging pattern in the Gulf (see link). Let's see what happens and maybe Texas will get lucky.

Link



Would you stop Wishcasting for rain PLease...........LOL........hey Brother. Ya i sure hope you all get the needed rain!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



The NAM certainly likes to show some Thunderstorm activity with old 90L..........don't jump my case.......i know the NAM is not a Tropical Model but it is a good indicator and a good model to show out to 48hrs of Thunderstorms!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning. As I mentioned earlier this am (insomnia issue around 2:00 am) best result for 90L would be for it to hold together and bring some rain to Texas down the road per the current ridging pattern in the Gulf (see link). Let's see what happens and maybe Texas will get lucky.

Link
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Rob@ Crown Weather did say he is not expecting any development before tomorrow.


He could be right. I've seen dome unexpected things in the tropics before. Wouldn't give up on it yet.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
2055. Stats56
Quoting DestinJeff:
Vorticity looks like it may be working down a bit, and if the vort tracks westward, land interaction not such a player.

We've seen Near 0% make hay before, so I wouldn't write off 90L just yet.


Agreed, maybe no longer an invest, but still an area of interest for those of us on the Gulf Coast.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That's exactly where the it looks to be building new storms. Hmmmm...maybe he's not done yet? Lol. I know I'll catch it for that comment. :)
Rob@ Crown Weather did say he is not expecting any development before tomorrow.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Vorticity looks like it may be working down a bit, and if the vort tracks westward, land interaction not such a player.

We've seen Near 0% make hay before, so I wouldn't write off 90L just yet.
Agreed.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Vorticity looks like it may be working down a bit, and if the vort tracks westward, land interaction not such a player.

We've seen Near 0% make hay before, so I wouldn't write off 90L just yet.


What he just said. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
3 hrs. ago



Now. Vorticity moving back over water.



That's exactly where the it looks to be building new storms. Hmmmm...maybe he's not done yet? Lol. I know I'll catch it for that comment. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
Quoting Tazmanian:
90L RIP


Next


How many times now Taz, for goodness sake stop beating a so called dead horse!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7833
Quoting bluheelrtx:


Or Drive.


Lol. Sad but true. We need rain BAD! :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Without the tropical rains the last few years majority of Texas Lakes would be bone dry


Just have to hope that La Nina doesn't come back this fall. If we don't get anything from tropical systems, we'd need El Nino to bring us above average rainfall to help break drought during fall, winter and spring, much like 2007 which was very nice till La nina came back in the fall that year. :(
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Quoting IKE:

Yup. Fine with me.


Thought about you last week when I passed your hometown on the I-10. Went to Pensacola and Palm Bay for vacation, but missed the dang shuttle launch.
Hope all is well.
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3 hrs. ago



Now. Vorticity moving back over water.

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


They're very low in East Texas. Not easy to launch a boat for sure. Of course you could just walk to the fishing holes I guess. :)


Or Drive.
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2042. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
back to hurry up and wait
Yup. Fine with me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the next two will say this

ABPZ20 KNHC 251139
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Without the tropical rains the last few years majority of Texas Lakes would be bone dry


They're very low in East Texas. Not easy to launch a boat for sure. Of course you could just walk to the fishing holes I guess. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
You can see where Typhoon Ma-on cooled the sst off the coast of japan:



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Quoting Skeptic33:



We were very lucky last summer. Most of the rain came from the tropical storms... Can you imagine how much worse shape Texas would have been without them? That's 2 years of terrible drought with significantly lower lake level...
Without the tropical rains the last few years majority of Texas Lakes would be bone dry
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90L RIP


Next
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
90L was 10% yesterday due to interaction with land. Today it's 0% due to interaction with land.



and 90L is done
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
90L was 10% yesterday due to interaction with land. Today it's 0% due to interaction with land.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That is all I am hoping for, It has been overcast off and on so far this morning but no rain yet. I keep hoping. What we have had so far this year is nowhere near what we should have had.


Looks like it's getting very close to you on satellite. Hope it gives you a good soaking. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
Good morning, everyone. We are at our usual 30% chance of rain, but also, like most every other day, nothing close on radar to us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Could always start looking at the barley there, real faint indication of a low shown on OSCAT from last night at about 11N 39W.









Link
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah. I know. Sigh. I hope you are surprised. Pleasantly! Kinda hard to stay positive. Does look like the x90l is firing up some new storms over the water. Maybe someone will get some beneficial rains.
That is all I am hoping for, It has been overcast off and on so far this morning but no rain yet. I keep hoping. What we have had so far this year is nowhere near what we should have had.
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Quoting IKE:
..NEAR 0 PERCENT..

Next.



plzs tell them IKE i been trying too say it all day sunday be no one got it lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
2028. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting IKE:
..NEAR 0 PERCENT..

Next.
back to hurry up and wait
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I hear you but the last 12 months it has been high pressure, La Nina or Center of storm system too far to North to give us rain kicking our butts. Persistence has been unbelievable since last June. Honestly last few years in Texas it has been Continued Drought with an occasional flood due to a tropical system. The only thing that has saved Texas last few years is tropical systems, they have given me majority of my rain. We may get a nice rain but then it is 3 or 4 months with nothing then another decent rain, no rainy periods the past year. So i would love to be surprised.


Yeah. I know. Sigh. I hope you are surprised. Pleasantly! Kinda hard to stay positive. Does look like the x90l is firing up some new storms over the water. Maybe someone will get some beneficial rains.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
2026. IKE
..NEAR 0 PERCENT..

Next.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I hear you but the last 12 months it has been high pressure, La Nina or Center of storm system too far to North to give us rain kicking our butts. Persistence has been unbelievable since last June. Honestly last few years in Texas it has been Continued Drought with an occasional flood due to a tropical system. The only thing that has saved Texas last few years is tropical systems, they have given me majority of my rain. We may get a nice rain but then it is 3 or 4 months with nothing then another decent rain, no rainy periods the past year. So i would love to be surprised.



We were very lucky last summer. Most of the rain came from the tropical storms... Can you imagine how much worse shape Texas would have been without them? That's 2 years of terrible drought with significantly lower lake level...
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lucky those islands are there 90 could of been a brute
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2023. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
now we wait for the next full moon on aug 13th for start of next round
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2022. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes, Taz. Dropped to near 0% but not gone LOL.
its done 90L RIP
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Unfortunately the High Pressure system is stuck over the Center Part of Texas, any rain chances will be on the outer edges of Texas unfortunately.



Well, I'm trying Bo! Lol. Maybe, just maybe, the high will slide east enough to bring you some rain. It does happen. One recent example was how Ike was supposed to go into STX but he ended up turning north somewhat at the last minute. So it's not set in stone yet.
I hear you but the last 12 months it has been high pressure, La Nina or Center of storm system too far to North to give us rain kicking our butts. Persistence has been unbelievable since last June. Honestly last few years in Texas it has been Continued Drought with an occasional flood due to a tropical system. The only thing that has saved Texas last few years is tropical systems, they have given me majority of my rain. We may get a nice rain but then it is 3 or 4 months with nothing then another decent rain, no rainy periods the past year. So i would love to be surprised.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS
WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



YAY at last they drop it too 0%
Yes, Taz. Dropped to near 0% but not gone LOL.
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90L is now a big RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS
WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



YAY at last they drop it too 0%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
2017. crownwx
Quoting clwstmchasr:


He is a bit bullish. However, 90L is no longer.


When I wrote that discussion at 5-6 am this morning, 90-L hadn't been deactivated, even though track models haven't been run over the last couple of days.
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Out for now... TTYL...

Have a good one, now.
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Unfortunately the High Pressure system is stuck over the Center Part of Texas, any rain chances will be on the outer edges of Texas unfortunately.



Well, I'm trying Bo! Lol. Maybe, just maybe, the high will slide east enough to bring you some rain. It does happen. One recent example was how Ike was supposed to go into STX but he ended up turning north somewhat at the last minute. So it's not set in stone yet.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's down around 6N, right?


Yes, Baha. It is still pretty close to the equator.



Levi cited a model yesterday that develops it but still a ways out fo sho.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Rather impressive TWave coming into view at 30W.



sweet spot?
That's down around 6N, right?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I disagree. Vorticity has increased somewhat which leads me to believe SOMETHING is still there.
Best vorticity since it entered the CAR, IIRC... most forecasters were not expecting much from this storm before today, so I guess if anything happens it'll be in this 48 hour period... still not really slowing down, though.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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