July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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2111. SLU
Cyclonic turning at 8n 33w right where the convection is.

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Quoting Levi32:


No not quite. The air can move in a circular path without its vector field having any significant net radial inward flux towards the low center. Decaying lows exhibit this all the time, and can take days to stop spinning, the whole time without any significant convergence of the surface winds.


SELDOM,,,,,,,SELDOM do you ever see that Levi am i wrong!

I look at Convergence and Divergence graphics along with Vorticity graphics every day. I can remember anytime that i have seen as you are describing a system when trying to develop. Not sure i have seen one before.
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Quoting Levi32:


No not quite. The air can move in a circle without its vector field having any significant net radial inward flux towards the low center. Decaying lows exhibit this all the time, and can take days to stop spinning, the whole time without any significant convergence of the surface winds.


I like your tropical tidbits much better than many of your posts in that you simplify the issues (for the common man) on the tidbits; on your posts, I think you lose lots of regular folks on here with the The air can move in a circle without its vector field having any significant net radial inward flux towards the low center. type of stuff.......No a criticism but just an observation; you are very good at what you do nonetheless...................... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8797


Wind directions imply modest convergence earlier.



Directions now:



Seem lacking as of late.
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No surprise...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0935 AM EDT MON 25 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: MISSION ON TROPICAL STORM DORA FOR
25/2000Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 24/2300Z.
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Also note ... those convergence/divergence plots aren't always correct ... Divergence is easier to pick out, but the convergent regions can be small and obscured by cloud cover. However, if there is consistently nil divergence aloft, you can imply that there is nil convergence in the boundary layer.
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2104. Levi32
Quoting P451:


I think it's quite important as well. Maybe not an end all but it is important. This system presently has little to no venting and little to no inflow.

Convergence/Divergence:





If air isn't moving then the system isn't spinning.


No not quite. The air can move in a circular path without its vector field having any significant net radial inward flux towards the low center. Decaying lows exhibit this all the time, and can take days to stop spinning, the whole time without any significant convergence of the surface winds.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
it aint dead yet
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Quoting DestinJeff:
look at the precipatable water with 90L (yes, I'm still calling it that for ease ... has it been deactivated anyway?)



not officially on the FTP site however, this was the last entry.

AL, 90, 2011072412, , BEST,
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2100. Levi32
The NOGAPS still tries to cook something up out of this monsoon trough eventually.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting ProgressivePulse:




Just like cutting the gas line on a car. Sure it will run for a little bit but, not for long. Convergence is the life blood of storms.
Quoting P451:


I think it's quite important as well. Maybe not an end all but it is important. This system presently has little to no venting and little to no inflow.

Convergence/Divergence:





If air isn't moving then the system isn't spinning.



Exactly.....if its not there.....we won't see nothing. But, 24hrs can make a big difference in both as we know. Guess Levi missed the point we was making.........you gotta have these in place for development........but, once a system is in place and those features regrece then it can spin itself out like a top.
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I agree Levi, the tilting is very telling.
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2097. Levi32
Quoting P451:
VORT Loop (200/500/700/850)





Also keep in mind with this wave that it wasn't really expected to develop (sans the NAM/NOGAPS which had it well developed north of E-Cuba by today) until...starting today.

Right around today was when it was modeled to get going.

So let's see if vort, convergence, and divergence increase during the day. If so it will be very slow to occur.





Your loop comparison indicates that the wave axis may be tilted a bit with height.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting P451:
VORT Loop (200/500/700/850)





Also keep in mind with this wave that it wasn't really expected to develop (sans the NAM/NOGAPS which had it well developed north of E-Cuba by today) until...starting today.

Right around today was when it was modeled to get going.

So let's see if vort, convergence, and divergence increase during the day. If so it will be very slow to occur.






You must have looped that, NICE JOB!
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I always like to post this stat from the NOAA Mariner's Guide to Tropical Storms (circa 2000) once the wave train starts to emerge from Africa:

Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8797
2092. bwi
From one of the maps posted down below, looks like some north winds in Jamaica. I'm not done following 90l yet -- will be watching surface winds and pressures in Cayman Island today to see if anything stirs back up as the disturbance passes to the north.
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2091. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:



Good Post......One thing i always look at is Convergence! If a system has no Convergence it just not spinning. I got into an argument the other nite when on poster was saying a system does not need Convergence..........I DON"T AGREE WITH THAT AT ALL! If you don't have a good Convergence return.......good chance the 850MB Vorticity won't be there either.


Um yes a system can spin without surface convergence. The angular momentum of a low pressure area doesn't just magically disappear as soon as there is no net piling up of air at the center of low pressure. It takes time to spin down - a lot of time.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting TampaSpin:



Good Post......One thing i always look at is Convergence! If a system has no Convergence it just not spinning. I got into an argument the other nite when on poster was saying a system does not need Convergence..........I DON"T AGREE WITH THAT AT ALL! If you don't have a good Convergence return.......good chance the 850MB Vorticity won't be there either.




Just like cutting the gas line on a car. Sure it will run for a little bit but, not for long. Convergence is the life blood of storms.
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Quoting ncstorm:
I usually dont post anything coming off of Africa but I have to say that is an impressive wave entering the water..



July climatology is still a little hard to beat. We had an incredible looking one come off the coast about 3 weeks ago (almost looked fully developed shortly after hitting the water) and it fell apart and dissipated after passing west of the Cape Verde Islands. However, we are now getting closer to Aug-Sept period so chances are (and we will know it when we see it) that once that "first" long track wave develops into a storm before hitting the Antilles, the Cape Verde switch will be on and the models will start to develop the ones that follow going into the peak of the season.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8797
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90L is refusing to die. Gotta agree with Tampa on here. Think this will get a bump back to 10 maybe 20% later on today. Vorticity and thunderstorms increasing and its about to cross the hot zone of the Carribean. It's got obvious issues to overcome, but agian its far from dead.



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Quoting P451:


It's lacking something. As with many systems in what was it.. 08 or 09 - we saw low shear, no sal, no dry air, open hot water, and invests didn't develop.

Clearly there are other important factors we don't understand - and my guess is this wave is demonstrating that.

What we can see and do understand is...
It has had some modest mid-shear of 10-15kts to deal with. It never had high convergence or divergence. It never took advantage of diurnal cycles instead feeding off of daytime heating. It only occasionally had some vorticity with it but nothing impressive or prolonged.

Just lacking all around. If not for that initial large convective bursting as it was looking to pass through the islands it would have never been upgraded to an invest. After that first widespread burst went away it could have been deactivated.

So far it's been like an F student that occasionally got himself a D- and got attention for it. :)




Good Post......One thing i always look at is Convergence! If a system has no Convergence it just not spinning. I got into an argument the other nite when on poster was saying a system does not need Convergence..........I DON"T AGREE WITH THAT AT ALL! If you don't have a good Convergence return.......good chance the 850MB Vorticity won't be there either.
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Their is some searing taking place right now as per this latest image



20 to 30 kts currently



But looks like 90l will be moving into lower shear area in the next 24 hrs or so.



Looking at water vapor loops still has some spin with it right now though its seems to be at the higher levels at present.

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Just looking at Vorticity.........90L does not have much at 850MB......but look at 700MB! Gotta think 90L might not be done yet.



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2076. ncstorm
I usually dont post anything coming off of Africa but I have to say that is an impressive wave entering the water..

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Quoting P451:


NOGAPS develops it bringing it to the islands as a well developed storm around 180hr. NOGAPS has formed a lot of phantom storms this season so it's success rate is low. Have to see if other models catch on or not.






Ya that is strange too with the NOGAPS.........that use to be one of the slower more conservative models to show anything. Heck over the past few years when it showed something you could almost bet on it coming.
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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7669



WOW, look at the Convergence in the Central Atlantic ..........that has a chance.
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Sometimes I think these waves have minds of their own. Some just can't develop no matter how pristine the conditions are and a single adversity is exaggerated. Others, on the other hand, want to develop and will do so in the face of much adversity. Those are the ones you fear, the Wilma's and Katrina's of the world.
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Old 90L has little vorticity. Just not much spin ocurring.
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Quoting P451:


It still is a tropical wave but it's present chances of further development are quite low. As with anything when it hits open water things can change. It's history hasn't shown an ability to develop beyond an occasional surge in convection at times. Never was organized and never had a good surface reflection.

So we're not talking about something that almost developed, got hindered, and could develop again. We're talking about a wave that never got going throughout it's history. It will need a little more than just hitting open water. It's lacking the environment needed to spin up. It's problems appear to extend beyond land interaction.










I don't think its lacking environment, cause conditons with moisture and Shear is not bad.
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Wow, plenty of mositure in the Caribbean and GOM for some brewing to occur. Not seen it like that for a while.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Another big one as well. This T-wave is twisting up a lot of atmosphere. NoGaps tries to develop it, if I am not mistaken? However, it may be just a little early yet IMO.



Yep the one that is about to roll off Africa might start getting talked about before ever rolling off. Its a biggie. And the one in the Central Atlantic certainly has a small chance!



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Quoting TampaSpin:



Would you stop Wishcasting for rain PLease...........LOL........hey Brother. Ya i sure hope you all get the needed rain!


Hey TS. 90L is presently the only game in town so I am going to try to hype it as much as I can within reason.......... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8797
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
new tropical wave to watch



Another big one as well. This T-wave is twisting up a lot of atmosphere. NoGaps tries to develop it, if I am not mistaken? However, it may be just a little early yet IMO.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Would you stop Wishcasting for rain PLease...........LOL........hey Brother. Ya i sure hope you all get the needed rain!


No let him wish! Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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