July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting Levi32:


Well in reality they have considered it dead for 48 hours already, since the last model cycle run on it was 12z the 23rd.


It's got wide open water in front of it now, which has not been the case for days. Things might just change...
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Quoting Levi32:


I'm not ready to say R.I.P. just yet. The coffin can wait a couple more days just in case we have a Lazarus to deal with.


Now THAT is something that I can understand...... :)
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2157. Levi32
High-res artificial visible floater for ex-90L
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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2155. Levi32
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I find it strange that 90L has been deactivated at the most promising time of its life....


Well in reality they have considered it dead for 48 hours already, since the last model cycle run on it was 12z the 23rd.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting cloudburst2011:
90L is still hanging in there and shows signs of getting its act together...its currently being influenced by land area but as soon as it gets south of western cuba all hell could break loose with this system...the ssts are approaching 90 degrees and very little shear to talk about...this will have to be watched carefully and for anyone to ignore this thing is just crazy..im giving it with the heavy convection and it does already have a weak suface circulation a 50% chance of developing into a depression in 24-36 hours...


lol, starting to think now this thing is gonna finally ramp itself up just as the NHC deactivates it, it ends up coming alive
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I find it strange that 90L has been deactivated at the most promising time of its life....
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2151. Patrap
...I admit, it's getting better all the time..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
Been getting some rain the past few days where I'm at. For the month I have now 2.74" grass is green, but really need a lot more rain, talking inches and inches of rain to get down deep for trees and as the water levels on lakes, ponds, detention ponds are down.

FYI, for some reason with the .25" or .75" of rain we get on a day the frogs at night are croaking loud over in the detention ponds in the subdivision. Usually you wont hear them do that unless we got lots and lots of rainwater...maybe a storm with lots of rain is on the way...
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2149. Levi32
Quoting Neapolitan:
Ladies and Gentlemen, we are gathered here today...

invest_DEACTIVATE_al902011.ren


I'm not ready to say R.I.P. just yet. The coffin can wait a couple more days just in case we have a Lazarus to deal with.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Currently, ex-90L reminds me of TS Gaston from last year...yet that could very quickly change.

Floods in Chicago

Meanwhile, much of Southern Ontario has seen less than 20% of our typical July precipitation, in what can be described as near-drought conditions. Link
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area of disturbed weather 8N 33W moving WNW at 15-20 mph. very little covection so far, but good 850mb vort and convergence and divergence as well. some dry air to the north will cause cslow development. a little migration further north would be quite interesting. position of IVAN 2004 and ABBY OF 1980
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Quoting Patrap:
Pop Tart or Cheerios?

You decide.
Quoting Patrap:
90L has a opportunity today and downstream as well.

Dont write it off,, esp in the improving environment developing along with it.

Sup, TS


Hey Pat.........do the box thingy with those little round things with them there holes in em..........LOL! Those Honey nut one's are my favorites.
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Ladies and Gentlemen, we are gathered here today...

invest_DEACTIVATE_al902011.ren
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any areas get any decent amount of rain from ex-90 does not seem too wet
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2142. Patrap
Remember to "factor in" the fact that Dr. M is on "Vacation".


Development is usually a given in that respect.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
2141. bwi
Cayman Brac observations.
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Quoting Patrap:
90L has a opportunity today and downstream as well.

Dont write it off,, esp in the improving environment developing along with it.

Sup, TS


Yep, gonna have to agree. Just last night I wrote it off, but starting to maybe see things change. Looks different this morning than previous days
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2138. Patrap
Im going wit da Cheerio's and skim Milk,,

Dats a Heart Healthy choice the Box say's.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
I've been watching for a week or so, and I've finally moved into the camp of those who see something that might start to spin. Early visible looks promising to me this morning. I'm watching this closely for the next 24 hrs to see if anything happens. Definitely hoping it turns into a rain maker for upper Texas coast!
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TD 11W

GFS:



CMC:

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Quoting Patrap:
Pop Tart or Cheerios?

You decide.


I'll take the Toaster Strudel coming off of Africa instead.

Pop Tarts and Cheerios off of Cuba just don't excite me like they used to.
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Quoting Levi32:


Yes, correct in the boundary layer, I will concede. Above that, geostrophic flow is more easily (nearly) obtained, especially in the absence of a significant pressure gradient force.


Im pretty sure the low level swirls most are talking about are atleast partially well within the frictional layer. Regardless, decaying cyclones even in the boundary layer can have great spindown times with little convergence, especially over water.
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Yesterday afternoon I had a pop up shower come over my house. It was very small and lasted about 30 minutes at most. Of course that was the 30 minutes I had been allotted to water my lawn, so I was watering in the rain. The rain did not do much, just raised the humidity to oppressive levels and did not cool us off at all. Temp at my house stayed in the upper 90's all day and probably peaked over 100 for a short time.

I will be watching ex-90L just for the moisture and rain potential. (But living on the gulf coast I am also keeping a wary eye on it as well, I have seen to many systems with 0% chance of development fool everyone.)

We have a 30% chance of rain being on the southern border of the ridge in North Central Texas and hopefully some of the moisture in LA will make it this way.

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2131. Patrap
90L has a opportunity today and downstream as well.

Dont write it off,, esp in the improving environment developing along with it.

Sup, TS
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609


Rut roh!
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2129. Levi32
Quoting SouthALWX:
Seeing as how you dont get geostrophic flow typically in the boundary layer ... I have to concede that you are both right. Sort of. If there is cyclonic spin in the boundary layer, you have atleast some tiny amount of convergence. Friction ensures this.

edit: thanks levi. Not as conclusive as I'd hoped sadly.


Yes, correct in the boundary layer, I will concede. Above that, geostrophic flow is more easily (nearly) obtained, especially in the absence of a significant pressure gradient force.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting Patrap:
GOES-13 Carribean Low Cloud Product Loop


Pretty good spin it appears just north of Jamacia......that is also where the 850mb vorticity is also located.
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2127. Patrap
Pop Tart or Cheerios?

You decide.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
Seeing as how you dont get geostrophic flow typically in the boundary layer ... I have to concede that you are both right. Sort of. If there is cyclonic spin in the boundary layer, you have atleast some tiny amount of convergence. Friction ensures this.

edit: thanks levi. Not as conclusive as I'd hoped sadly.
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2125. Patrap
GOES-13 Carribean Low Cloud Product Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
Quoting Levi32:


No development and no spin are very different things. The latter is what you mentioned, as you said no convergence equates to no spin.



We was talking about developing systems and only developing systems. Not things that was already developed.
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2121. Levi32
ASCAT missed the tropical waves on both sides in the current pass.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
2120. Levi32
Quoting SouthALWX:
One thing I do note. The plot in southern cuba has been changing direction reasonably in a way that suggests some stronger low level turning. Perhaps someone can animate a GIF of those?

Link
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/archive/tropics /caribbean/


edit: haha, beat to the punch by a scatterometer pass.


Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
This low is holding and getting together and looks like it's got no so many inhibiting variables... Still not taken in consideration by Weather Outlook link...





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2118. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:



LEVI, we are talking about DEVELOPING SYSTEMS that are trying to develop. If those items as described are not present ........you will get no development. Is that not correct? NOT SOMETHING THAT IS ALREADY DEVELOPED!


No development and no spin are very different things. The latter is what you mentioned, as you said no convergence equates to no spin.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting Levi32:


Quite often the "naked swirls" that we track have no significant surface convergence, though they must always have some small amount if there is a pressure gradient between the low center and the outside environment. However, even if the pressure is nearly equalized, you can have a left-over vorticity that takes a little while to go away before the momentum is dissipated. It's not that uncommon. Left-over vortices from MCCs are another example of such features.


I agree, if the vector of movement is tangential to the circle, there is no convergence or divergence.
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Quoting Levi32:


Quite often the "naked swirls" that we track have no significant surface convergence, though they must always have some small amount if there is a pressure gradient between the low center and the outside environment. However, even if the pressure is nearly equalized, you can have a left-over vorticity that takes a little while to go away before the momentum is dissipated. It's not that uncommon. Left-over vortices from MCCs are another example of such features.



LEVI, we are talking about DEVELOPING SYSTEMS that are trying to develop. If those items as described are not present ........you will get no development. Is that not correct? NOT SOMETHING THAT IS ALREADY DEVELOPED!
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2115. 7544
Quoting SLU:
Cyclonic turning at 8n 33w right where the convection is.



91L soon ?
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90L is developing nice thunderstorms where the vorticity product indicates spinning. Low cloud movement is hard to make out on satellite, definately no closed low yet though. With waters being as warm as they are, thunderstorms are likely to persist, which will gradually lower pressures in the area SW of cuba. It's definately possible to see a spin start up around the caymans in the next 48hours, but we are more than 2 days away from a TS.
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2113. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:


SELDOM,,,,,,,SELDOM do you ever see that Levi am i wrong!

I look at Convergence and Divergence graphics along with Vorticity graphics every day. I can remember anytime that i have seen as you are describing a system when trying to develop. Not sure i have seen one before.


Quite often the "naked swirls" that we track have no significant surface convergence, though they must always have some small amount if there is a pressure gradient between the low center and the outside environment. However, even if the pressure is nearly equalized, you can have a left-over vorticity that takes a little while to go away before the momentum is dissipated. It's not that uncommon. Left-over vortices from MCCs are another example of such features.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
One thing I do note. The plot in southern cuba has been changing direction reasonably in a way that suggests some stronger low level turning. Perhaps someone can animate a GIF of those?

Link
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/archive/tropics /caribbean/


edit: haha, beat to the punch by a scatterometer pass.
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2111. SLU
Cyclonic turning at 8n 33w right where the convection is.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.