July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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2184. sarahjola 10:46 AM EDT on July 25, 2011

BTW, I miss-spoke when I used Humberto as an answer to your question; Humberto remained as a Cat 1 when it came ashore I believe and certainly not a major when it spun up quickly.
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Quoting hurricaneben:
Does anyone else think the NHC is being quite too conservative?



They always are in the development stage. This is really no surprise as we have seen this often. Hey nothing is there as they are currently saying CORRECT! At least not yet!
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I'm strongly compelled to wishcast rain into my parched yard! Come to daddy...
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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7935
2205. SLU
The 30w blob now recognised as a wave

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Quoting PcolaDan:


Only 9km depth. That's pretty shallow isn't it? I imagine that must of been a good shake. A lot of quake activity past few days.
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i posted this earlier.......this is the NAM........no its not a Tropical Model but a good model to 24-48hrs out to show Thunderstorm activitiy........LOOKS DANG GOOD HERE!


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I believe the cashews are about to hit the fan...

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sst where ex-90l is are at 30 and the gulf of mexico is at 31, so its very warm out there. low sheer in the gulf and it seems to the naked eye that ex-90l has a general spin to it. once land gets out the way how long might it be before we know if ex-90l has a chance to become more than an ex? tia!
oh, and thanks weathermanwannabe
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep! That's the one. :) Am grateful for all the guys and gals that fly into these things. And I'd love to go with them one day. Sigh. I guess this is a day for dreaming. :)
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Does anyone else think the NHC is being quite too conservative?
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Land interaction is the only problem 90L is facing at the moment. Once it reaches the abnormally warm Gulf Of Mexico waters, it might really try to pull a Humberto before coming ashore somewhere between Corpus Christi and Tampalico, probably just north of Brownsville is the prime target.
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90L is nearing a location that is known for RI, take a deep breath, got a feeling 90L will give us a bit of a surprise!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7935
The crow will flow if 90L spins up.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
This is all gettimg too "Nick Burns, Your Company Computer Guy" for me to keep up with.

No matter .. 90L, or whatever, is emerging into that area of the Caribbean where waters are very warm and land interaction may not be quite as much of an issue.
Hey, I resemble that remark...
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Quoting sarahjola:
so a few models are calling for redevelopment of old 90l. if this does redevelop where might it go? louisiana, texas, ms.? what is in place to steer ex-90l? i see dr. masters says that wind sheer is low in the gulf. can anyone tell me how fast an invest can turn into a major, and maybe give examples? tia!


Here is the current WU pressure chart showing the ridging in the Northern Gulf (Yall in the Northern Gulf have a protective bubble at the moment) so I am thinking Mexico or Texas but not etched in stone depending on what happens with the ridging over the week..........Several examples of relatively fast spin ups but really too many too mention. Given the possible Texas heading on this one, I would use Humberto from a few years as a good example of a rapid spin-up right against the coastline of Texas.

Link
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This is a test of the Emergency Alert System. Or a test of the 90L Alert System.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
NHC needs to move its 0% circle back to the East a bit.


That's how I see it too. It seems to have shed the widespread convection and concentrated down into something with potential, just past Jamaica. That's how it looks to me now, so we'll see won't we...
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so a few models are calling for redevelopment of old 90l. if this does redevelop where might it go? louisiana, texas, ms.? what is in place to steer ex-90l? i see dr. masters says that wind sheer is low in the gulf. can anyone tell me how fast an invest can turn into a major, and maybe give examples? tia!
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2183. Levi32
Off to work. Back later.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
2182. beell
Some shear on the west side of the wave. Mainly due to the NE winds in the low levels opposing the upper level SW winds. A hindrance.

Still a viable wave. Count me in on the "still watching" group.
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TD Ten in the West Pacific will have to be watched. JTWC is pretty conservative on intensity, while the ECMWF and GFS show a decent system.






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@typhoonfury
James Reynolds
Parts of Philippines being deluged by TD 10W right now, flooding could well be a big concern by morning!!
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If and once a LLC forms, that'll be the spark needed for this thing, it's free to do what it wants once that missing link is established
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2178. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
Quoting cloudburst2011:
rita isnt that always the case look at powerful katrina they wanted to say that was dead also...anytime you have a system with the size of and envelope this thing had in the atlantic it has to be watched carefully...im starting to get really concerned if this attains tropical depression strength it could fire the engines rapidly...i seen this happen so many times...


Things do change unexpectedly in the tropics for sure. I don't remember exactly what it was about Rita's development. Something about the tropical wave that was to become Rita and a stalled front? I think? Anyway, no one expected her to develop how she did. There's a video on Youtube of the HH flight into her and I swear they said, "And we were calling this tropical trash two days ago." Lol. Ya just never know. :)
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Quoting sunlinepr:




Thanks........As I mentioned this morning, Texas could certainly use it so it would be nice to see a low end tropical system bring them some rain (nothing above TS strength).
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2174. Levi32
The wave is now past the central Caribbean "graveyard" of strong trade winds and is now being supported by those winds piling in from the east, as Rita said. The western Caribbean is more favorable to tropical waves for that reason.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
rita i agree 100% remember what camille did when it was south of western cuba...this is late july not liking this scenario very much...i think we may be dealing with a depession in 36 hours...


Yea, but I think time is on our side, it's moving to fast and will be coming ashore somewhere this week don't you think?
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On another note, on visible sat, notice the strong easterly flow piling into the back side of old 90L, those low level clouds are racing
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Question.........Do any of the models re-develop 90L at this time?



3 days ahead..
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The WRF Model kinda likes old 90L chances heading toward Texas


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Question.........Do any of the models re-develop 90L at this time?
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Quoting neutralenso:
Great the tropics are dead. i thought late july would be better


What would you call what we were looking at 2 days ago then? This is perfectly normal for July, be patient.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24246
If for some reason old 90L gets a LLC, folks should be aware that it might spin up pretty quick, don't be shocked if a 50-60mph storm ramps up in the Gulf is what I'm trying to say...

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NHC needs to move its 0% circle back to the East a bit.
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Quoting Levi32:


Well in reality they have considered it dead for 48 hours already, since the last model cycle run on it was 12z the 23rd.


Although they have run no models doesn't mean the necessarily mean they had to deactivate it now does it? Or is there a restriction? Regardless, I doubt it develops, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have a chance.
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Quoting Levi32:


Well in reality they have considered it dead for 48 hours already, since the last model cycle run on it was 12z the 23rd.


It's got wide open water in front of it now, which has not been the case for days. Things might just change...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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