July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Doesnt the % at the NHC only mean for the next 48 hours?? 10% for 90L is in a short time frame. Look at the bigger picture!!
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58. JRRP

mmmmm
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How does this heat wave compare to 1936? That year 5000 deaths were attributed.
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[from the previous blog] 1828 DestinJeff "The Chart does not actually dictate what happens, but rather actual atmospheric dynamics at any given time.
The Chart never changes, and thankfully has been posted into submission here so collectively we are less likely to assume a certain outcome based on its various peaks and such.
"

Be interesting to see a NewChart based on the most recent 20years (stretched vertically by a factor of 5) for comparison with The(100year)Chart.

And that 100years... Is the period covered revised every year, or is it just a static chart that really never changes from the years used when it was first created.
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Quoting bappit:

Sounds like you talked to the generator guy.
Um, no, but the person I got the second hand info from did.
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53. JRRP
Link
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I would take Antarctica weather over this stupid triple digit heat.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31469
SWELTERING in Helsinki.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
A number of cities are certain to top 100 again in the next hour or two: Wichita Falls, OKC, KC, St. Louis, NYC, Newark, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, Richmond, Raleigh. Just like yesterday, only not quite so extreme in most cases. The "best" part: many of these same locations will get a slight break tomorrow and early next week, but roughly the same areas will be back near or over the 100-degree mark next weekend.
we cold get close today to 100 been the triple H'S for two weeks now god i miss winter o triple h means HOT HAZY HUMID and its only july august is normally hottest month up here dry to this month out of 23 days two days of spit for a grand total of 4.4 mm
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Quoting spathy:
My only point here is that the weather service should do a review of all placement sites and end any doubt as to skewed data.

I know that muddies historical data but its long overdue.

You think they have money to do that?
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48. JRRP
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Quoting spathy:


You might have a point there.
But it could also be that there are 20 years worth of misleading info.

If you look at this photo and see the only other 105 reading dig deeper and note that the thermometer is located in similar conditions.




True, but we all know it has been extremely hot out these past few weeks for sure...I live in Phoenix now, but have been in Dallas area the last 3 wks and hotter here than usual ;)
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well 90L looks like it peak at 30%
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Found out that upper air obs from weather balloons at Barbados will continue pretty soon. They had issues with the hydrogen generator, which will be fixed soon.

Sounds like you talked to the generator guy.
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Quoting Levi32:
Surface divergence in the central-eastern Caribbean from the wind speed increasing from east to west is responsible for the demise of 90L's weak circulation. This is why the eastern Caribbean is considered a "dead-zone" for tropical development if a tropical wave has not already developed prior to entering it. Conditions may improve later if the wave gets into the gulf, but land interaction will be the main inhibitor until then.


Or to put it another way, it is the replacement air from the upper levels of this mass divergence out of the basin in the lower levels-leading to sinking air and compressional warming, subsidence, and the "graveyard".
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90L may not make it overe HISPANIOLA mts if it dos there may not be any thing lift of it
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90L RIP down too 10% next update 0%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE AND INTERACTION WITH
HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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90L down to 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE AND INTERACTION WITH
HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31469
..never write off any wave that sustains across the pond that has travel plans.

Thats a bad way to fly tropically forecasting.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
A number of cities are certain to top 100 again in the next hour or two: Wichita Falls, OKC, KC, St. Louis, NYC, Newark, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, Richmond, Raleigh. Just like yesterday, only not quite so extreme in most cases. The "best" part: many of these same locations will get a slight break tomorrow and early next week, but roughly the same areas will be back near or over the 100-degree mark next weekend.
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37. 7544
looks like 90l wants to go nw today and still building convection not giving up just yet
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
Just a few funnies that at times, pertain to some of the conversations I've read in this blog.

Atheism is a non-prophet organization.

Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you're a mile away and you have their shoes.

Better to understand a little than to misunderstand a lot.

For every action there is an equal and opposite criticism.

Friends may come and go, but enemies tend to accumulate.

Generally speaking, you aren't learning much when your mouth is moving.

Genius does what it must, talent does what it can, and you had best do what you're told.

Good judgment comes from bad experience and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.
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I shouldn't say a African system, but rather, a well-defined tropical wave with a 1009 mb. low pressure area.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31469
new two sould be out any time now
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Quoting Levi32:
Surface divergence in the central-eastern Caribbean from the wind speed increasing from east to west is responsible for the demise of 90L's weak circulation. This is why the eastern Caribbean is considered a "dead-zone" for tropical development if a tropical wave has not already developed prior to entering it. Conditions may improve later if the wave gets into the gulf, but land interaction will be the main inhibitor until then.


Just if you haven't checked yet, the 12Z GFS shows a system off Africa towards the middle/end of this coming week.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31469
Quoting pottery:
Good Day, all.
Some welcomed showers around the place this morning, but it is hot and steamy.
Coming down nice and soft right now.

Looks like 90L Bit the Dry overnight, and the wave that was east of here is looking pretty dismal today.
hello pottery hot and steamy here too with the heat dome in place


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Saturday 23 July 2011
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Pressure: 29.93 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 90.0°F
Dewpoint: 68.7°F
Humidity: 50 %
Wind: W 11 gust 19 mph
Humidex: 104



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Quoting spathy:
Its hot I know but official temps from places like BWI are a joke,IMHO.



Link

I know the source is "bad"
But the picture is worth a thousand temp anomalys.
How many other bad placements are there for official records?


How long has this station been here is the question? If it has been there for 20 years then all of these factors have been here for 20 years and it is still the hottest day to the date...if they moved it in a few years then yes it would be a false reading compared to previous years...
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I suspect 90L will blossom once again
I agree with you...90 L is currently in the eastern Caribbean which is often referred to as the "dead zone" for developing tropical systems. Once it moves into the central & western Caribbean it should have better conditions to develop.
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..she maybe should have stayed in Rehab,

yeah, yeah,...yeah
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570
90L/INV/XX
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Good Day, all.
Some welcomed showers around the place this morning, but it is hot and steamy.
Coming down nice and soft right now.

Looks like 90L Bit the Dry overnight, and the wave that was east of here is looking pretty dismal today.
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thanks miss Angela for the update hope you are having a great weekend
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Quoting Patrap:
A Recipe for some Bad Mojo..


Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low.
yes formula for a monster
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Found out that upper air obs from weather balloons at Barbados will continue pretty soon. They had issues with the hydrogen generator, which will be fixed soon.
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Surface divergence in the central-eastern Caribbean from the wind speed increasing from east to west is responsible for the demise of 90L's weak circulation. This is why the eastern Caribbean is considered a "dead-zone" for tropical development if a tropical wave has not already developed prior to entering it. Conditions may improve later if the wave gets into the gulf, but land interaction will be the main inhibitor until then.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Quite possibly once in the western gulf but nothing going on today as it remains very disorganized with no signs of any development down to the surface. Upper environment remains hostile across most of the carib.

Fully expect things to light up in 2-3 weeks.




thank you
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In a completely off-topic aside, yet another singer has joined Brian, Jimi, Janis, Jim, and Kurt in the 27 Club. RIP Ms Winehouse...
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I suspect 90L will blossom once again


Quite possibly once in the western gulf but nothing going on today as it remains very disorganized with no signs of any development down to the surface. Upper environment remains hostile across most of the carib.

Fully expect things to light up in 2-3 weeks.
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Quoting Patrap:
Accept horror movies are fake and hurricane destruction is real.

The word usage is incorrect as well.

Its, "Except"..



Do you correct people for grammar mistakes that often? Because I didn't need you to correct it for me, I think I know how to use which one by now lol. I just made a mistake, its not like I am writing a college paper here.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31469
from last blog

Quoting Tazmanian:90L is RIP wind shear too high
no it is not 5-10kt right near to it as shown on the 15Z shear map
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11069
not in tell wind shear die down
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127570

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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