July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Just got back. Anything new on 90L? Any development or is it still the same. Did buy more for my hurricane stash at the commissary for the upcoming season.
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Quoting Levi32:


Surface convergence associated with 90L is responsible for much of the convection, though it is also being aided by upper diffluence east of the upper low in the western Caribbean.
So do you expect the 10% to stay until it moves thru the NE Caribbean?
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Quoting Levi32:


Surface convergence associated with 90L is responsible for much of the convection, though it is also being aided by upper diffluence east of the upper low in the western Caribbean.


Do you think that 90L will have a chance to develop once in the Gulf of Mexico? Any ULL's look to be there in 4-6 days or so?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
If the GFDL still thinks it can develop, then it should be watched carefully. Lately the GFDL has been doing well in calling out the systems that are unlikely to develop. The HWRF develops anything, just like its counterpart, the WRF.
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Correction: GFDL brings it up to Category 2 strength.

HWRF brings it up to Category 1 strength.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Amy Winehouse is dead!
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Quoting scott39:
Is the convection being sustained by 90L or by something else!


Surface convergence associated with 90L is responsible for much of the convection, though it is also being aided by upper diffluence east of the upper low in the western Caribbean.
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Warning the blog...Another JFV-imposter: MrCowan

Add to the ignore list so you don't have to listen to him when he comes on the blog.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Can anyone answer post 85? TIA
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Quoting Patrap:
Caribbean - Rainbow Loop
A lot of moisture that could do something in a few days.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I've found a general rule...

* If the GFDL and HWRF aren't blowing it up into a major hurricane, its likely not to develop.

* If the GFDL and HWRF do blog it up into at least a major hurricane, the chances for development increase.

Both of them are blowing 90L up into a major hurricane...Good sign for 90L. Both of them take a southerly track for the system, which would mean going over high TCHP. If the system was developed, I could see a brief period of rapid intensification.

I'm still going to say that 90L wont develop though.


I don't see a major hurricane, both bring it up to Cat 1. What caught my eye was both did not develop until the Western Carribean, so if the wave can survive untill then, possibility of development is favorable.
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I think the models are too far south. It looks as though 90L is consolidating more to the north and will likely either go right over PR or just to the north. When it gets into the gulf we need to watch out. Waters are extremely warm.
Member Since: May 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
is a low trying to form at 45w 10N?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I've found a general rule...

* If the GFDL and HWRF aren't blowing it up into a major hurricane, its likely not to develop.

* If the GFDL and HWRF do blog it up into at least a major hurricane, the chances for development increase.

Both of them are blowing 90L up into a major hurricane...Good sign for 90L.
How good are they in direction if thier intensity is so far off?
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Quoting scott39:
Sad day for her family! Her Dad tried to get her help.


Yes, very sad day for the Winehouse family. Had a daughter that lived a lifestyle that put her on the road for this. She had demons that she couldnt conquer.

However all the young children in Norway were innocently attenting a camp on a beautiful island when a madman shoots them dead.

More sorrow and attention for the Winehouse family than for the innocent kids?
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GFDL. I know ppl don't like this model much, but it is one of the models the NHC consider in their forecast, so I figure it is just fair that I mention wht it is doing with 90L.

Link
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91L will form......
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
90L 12Z GFDL


90L 12Z HWRF


I've found a general rule...

* If the GFDL and HWRF aren't blowing it up into a major hurricane, its likely not to develop.

* If the GFDL and HWRF do blog it up into at least a major hurricane, the chances for development increase.

Both of them are blowing 90L up into a major hurricane...Good sign for 90L. Both of them take a southerly track for the system, which would mean going over high TCHP. If the system was developed, I could see a brief period of rapid intensification.

I'm still going to say that 90L wont develop though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
90L 12Z GFDL


90L 12Z HWRF
DOOMM!!!
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For every 1C degree rise in global temperatures there is a 7% rise in the amount of water vapor in the air.
A couple of numbers from last night -

1mi Sw Arlington Heights Cook, IL... HEAVY RAIN - 7.25 INCH.

0830 AM CDT 07/23/2011.

Ohare Airport Cook, IL...... HEAVY RAIN - 8.20 INCH.

0700 AM CDT 07/23/2011.
A month of rain in three days drenches Sydney
The deluge soaked Sydney with more than 200mm - a month's
worth of rain - in just three days. The wild weather pummelled Bondi
Beach and the surrounding coast with waves up to six metres.

http://www.3news.co.nz/A-month-of-rain-in-three-d ays-drenches-Sydney/tabid/417/articleID/219754/Def ault.aspx
200mm = 7.87 inches
Montreal's sewer system was put to the test during an intense deluge that struck the downtown area of the city on Monday.
The downpour dropped 30 cm of water on the downtown and Plateau Mont
Royal areas in less than an hour, causing flooding in some buildings and
a spectacular sewer geyser on Wolfe St. between Ste-Catherine St. and
René Levesque Blvd.

http://montreal.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/2 0110719/mtl_geyser_110719/20110719/?hub=MontrealHo me
30cm = 11.81 inches
One rain gauge in downtown Akron recorded over seven
inches of rain, and National Weather Service Doppler readings indicated
about 6.6 inches fell in Akron.

Read more: http://www.wtam.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsa rticle.html?feed=122520&article=8860142#ixzz1S wunbDN3
record event report

1101 am cdt wed jul 20 2011
...all time calendar day rainfall record for chicago broken today...
with 6.86 inches of rainfall at chicago-ohare through 1100 am

cdt...the all time record for calendar day rainfall has been

shattered. the previous record was 6.64 inches on september 13th

2008. the potential exists for additional rainfall today...so this

record report will be updated after 100 am cdt upon the issuance of

the daily climate report for july 23rd. the period of record for the

city of chicago began in 1871. it goes without saying that the

calendar day record for july 23rd has also been broken...but it is

interesting to note that the previous record was just set on july

23rd 2010 when 2.79 inches of rain fell.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
amy winehouse has passed away
Sad day for her family! Her Dad tried to get her help.
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90L 12Z GFDL


90L 12Z HWRF
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Is the convection being sustained by 90L or by something else!
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The national climatological network might be of interest to you.
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amy winehouse has passed away
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Quoting Tazmanian:
well 90L looks like it peak at 30%

It could develop in the gulf. We just have to wait and see.
Member Since: May 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
The TAWFM forecasts there is a 23% chance of 90L ever becoming a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Caribbean - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes 10 percnt next 48 but you also consider forward movement and type of land it has to travel over and in this case the path of choice is not a favourable one at the moment or the next 48
Yes, thats the point Im trying to make. The NHC still gives 90L 10% with the obstacles it has to overcome. Yet as the % drops down most people like to write it off. What Ive learned in watching the tropics, is that nobody should write off anything the NHC is watching... until they kill it!
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To any of our bloggers from Norway,

My heart goes out to the citizens of your country as it attempts to heal from the attacks. In my mind I cannot image what you must be feeling. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

I know that this isnt the place for this type of post however I thought that I have seen people from Norway on here in the past.

How very sad
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Quoting overwash12:
How does this heat wave compare to 1936? That year 5000 deaths were attributed.

Well, heat waves can't be compared to one another based on body counts alone; back in 1936, there was very little air conditioning; crowded, sub-standard tenement housing was still the norm in America's largest cities; health care wasn't nearly as available; etc..

But more importantly as Dr. Masters noted yesterday: "During the 1930s, there was a high frequency of heat waves due to high daytime temperatures resulting in large part from an extended multi-year period of intense drought. By contrast, in the past 3 to 4 decades, there has been an increasing trend in high-humidity heat waves, which are characterized by the persistence of extremely high nighttime temperatures. In particular, Gaffen and Ross (1999) found that summer nighttime moisture levels increased by 2 - 4% per decade for every region of the contiguous U.S. between 1961 - 1995. Hot and humid conditions at night for a multi-day period are highly correlated with heat stress mortality during heat waves." IOW: true comparisons between heat waves then and now require more than just a glance at the temps.

(FWIW, by the time this heat wave is over and done, deaths will be in the many dozens.)
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90L T=96hrs Euro 00z. Coming off the coast of Cuba. Models are not doing much with it and I concur with the NHC assesment.

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Crikey,,

Congrats to the Folks Down Under..

Viva La Trophy!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
with all this humidity just lying around the southeast, if something tropical does roll in and a cold front could cross down and stall about the appalacian mountain area, would the rainfall that would occur be abnormally high , even for a ropical system?(perfect storm setup)
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This is for Aussie when he shows up...
Crikey Cadel...

Cadel Evans of Austrailia has won the Tour de France.
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Too bad LeBron James doesn't play for this heat. Then we'd know it'd falter soon.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
once the daytime heat machine sets for the day this may all but vanish over the hati/dom. terrain
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Quoting P451:
*pokes head in*

Are we DOOM? No?

*resumes lurking*



Soon, when the GFDL and HWRF come out :)
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00z ECMWF NAO.

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Quoting scott39:
Doesnt the % at the NHC only mean for the next 48 hours?? 10% for 90L is in a short time frame. Look at the bigger picture!!
yes 10 percnt next 48 but you also consider forward movement and type of land it has to travel over and in this case the path of choice is not a favourable one at the moment or the next 48
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Quoting JRRP:

nada de nada
It looks to me (shear wise) if 90L stays just S of the Islands, it can ride its way into the GOM.
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63. JRRP

nada de nada
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Quoting Patrap:
..she maybe should have stayed in Rehab,

yeah, yeah,...yeah
"unexplained"!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.