July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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GFDL 90 hr out

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
I wouldn't give on 90l just yet, if it gets to the western carib/ GOM then it could develope.
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90L/INV/XX
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All 3 tropical storms this year have had an eye like feature.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
if convection continues for awhile pressure will fall near the ofcl center.
yes and then the turning will commence again but this may be all day time heat induced and once the sun goes down the storms fade away
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GOES East recently started Rapid Scan Operations for the next 24 hours, so the GHCC Loop will have eight frames per hour.
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12Z NOGAPS just do Texas so wrong..but it looks like it has the second storm heading to FLORIDA!!

Link
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Quoting DestinJeff:
at this point let's at least hope that 90L transverses the eastern caribbean quickly, so to avoid prolonged invest tracking

people keep talking about land interaction, but I don't see it happening. the what-would-be-center of 90L is south of major islands, and I think will track substantially away from hispaniola for eventual development south-ish of Jamaica. beyond that I will not venture a guess.

i generally agree.

although as we've seen with systems like this a new center could reform at any point if deep convection gets going further to the N or NE.
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1=YES
2=BETWEEN SUN & THUR
3=YES
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12163
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
This is for Aussie when he shows up...
Crikey Cadel...

Cadel Evans of Austrailia has won the Tour de France.
Wonder if he's related to the Evans from Andros...

It's a small world, after all! lol
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90L/INV/XX
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Quoting stoormfury:
could the next invest 91L come from the tropical wave at 33W. there is strong 850mb vorticity. wind shear is about 5 knots to the lesser antilles. the only inhibitory factor is the dry air and sahara dust to the north of the wave.


Rotation is clearer than with 90L. Don't know if it's low level, though.
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..the Horse agrees
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I dont like it, no sir, dont like it at all
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
What are the chances of this storm hitting the northern gulf coast?
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AL, 90, 2011072318, , BEST, 0, 159N, 637W, 25, 1014, DB,


its now up too 1014mb
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Lotsa consensus downstream in the Dynamic Run..as well
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If I read these temps and dew points correctly New England has around 10 degrees F before people start dropping dead just from stepping outside.
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Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts



Intensity forcast keeps going up Patrap
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
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could the next invest 91L come from the tropical wave at 33W. there is strong 850mb vorticity. wind shear is about 5 knots to the lesser antilles. the only inhibitory factor is the dry air and sahara dust to the north of the wave.
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90L dos look a little better
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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Amy Winehouse is dead!


I'm not surprised especially with the way she lived, but may she RIP.

I also see the GFS develops a nice wave off of Africa later next week.
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90L has already started to make a comeback imo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7932
Quoting DestinJeff:
Has anyone mentioned how they expect 90L to drift across the Caribbean until south of Jamaica (roughly) then begin to show signs of development into a TC?

I think maybe someone did say that.

Patrap posted the bio of Camille who did more or less that. I don't remember any whacked DMIN explosion and DMAX death with her, though. Fact, I've never seen DMAX kill a system and DMIN re-animate it.
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

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90L imo will develop just SE of Jamaica.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7932
Quoting neutralenso:
HWRF and GFDL are too southerly on their track like once it gets back over the NW carribean it wont move due west into mexico because the ridge is to the north east meaning it will head in a wnw direction

the GFDL doesn't show it moving due west. shows wnw and it doesn't take it all the way to the mexican coast in the latest run. shows it a couple hundred miles NW of the Yucatan.

HWRF doesn't take it due west either. it stops its run with the storm just to the NW of the Yucatan.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:


You where right Jasonweatherman2011 i knew you had this pegged from the start when it was way out in the ocean see I'm paying attintion Thanks
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
124. JRRP

SW CV

see you later
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
90L 12Z GFDL


90L 12Z HWRF

DOOM!
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90L is haulin butt!! WNW at 22mph
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
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Well I see our invest has fizzled out a bit in terms of convection and in it's vorticity signature over night. Interesting to note, as I pointed out last night, this invest (so far) doesn't appear to be following normal convective cycles. Looking at satellite imagery now, convection intensity and coverage appears to be on the increase, as well as the vorticity signature...as we near the convective dmin lol.

I don't expect any development from the invest over the next few days, land interaction as it heads WNW will be an issue. Low level convergence will be a bit of an issue as it hangs over the east Caribbean dead zone. Additionally, upper level winds continue to indicate the upper level anticyclone is not centered overhead, but displaced. GFS and ECMWF 12z model initializations also reflect this. This is making for good divergence, however, it will keep shear an issue with this invest, despite how low shear values seem right now on the CIMSS shear map. Additionally, despite the large moisture plume associated with 90L, there is a bit of dry air to the SW which can be seen on WV and TPW imagery.

Looking at the 12z models, none of the models develop this invest at the moment. They continue to show a WNW track providing plenty of land interaction. They all agree the wave, or at least part of it, will end up in the gulf of Mexico, which could end up bringing some rain to the Texas/Louisiana region...but that's a ways out right now. None of the models appear to develop anything else. GFS is showing a strong wave emerging off Africa in 6 days from now




Just a sign that the African Wave train is heating up
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Questions:

1. Will Don form out of 90L?
2. When will Don form?
3. Will we see Don before the end of July
Just asking opinions.


1.) Possibly, especially if it can get in the GOMEX.

2.) I think Don will form, if not out of 90L, sometime during the first week or so of August.

3.) If 90L develops, yes. If 90L doesn't develop, no.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32282
Temps are a little lower than yesterday's, but there's still another two to four hours to, er, beat the heat:

TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECTED US CITIES AS OF 2:00 PM EDT (7/22 HIGHS IN PARENTHESES)

WICHITA FALLS, TX: 100 (104)
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK: 97 (100)
AMARILLO, TX: 95 (100)
KANSAS CITY, MO: 100 (102)
ST. LOUIS, MO: 98 (101)
NEW YORK, NY: 100 (104)
NEWARK, NJ: 102 (108)
PHILADELPHIA, PA: 98 (103)
BALTIMORE, MD: 101 (108)
WASHINGTON, DC: 101 (102)
RICHMOND, VA: 101 (102)
RALEIGH, NC: 101 (103)
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Wind shear is decreasing where 90L is, currently it is under 10 knots of wind shear according to the CIMMS shear map

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Quoting Levi32:
If the GFDL still thinks it can develop, then it should be watched carefully. Lately the GFDL has been doing well in calling out the systems that are unlikely to develop. The HWRF develops anything, just like its counterpart, the WRF.


You are right about the HWRF. I remember a weak disturbance in June 2009 that the HWRF brought to around 930 mb as it made landfall near Tampa, FL. Nothing of any significance happened. I laugh when I think about it. It is a good thing the HWRF's model forecasts are often not right.
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Questions:

1. Will Don form out of 90L?
2. When will Don form?
3. Will we see Don before the end of July
Just asking opinions.
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Just got back. Anything new on 90L? Any development or is it still the same. Did buy more for my hurricane stash at the commissary for the upcoming season.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.