July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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I saw on the model intensity that gfdl had it being a cat 1 close to a cat 2 in 144 plus hours.Does anyone see 90L being that soon?
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Quoting yonzabam:


I think there's some strange force field on the Texan border. Everywhere around you, like Mexico and Louisiana has had drought busting rains. But they all seem to stop at the border.


Louisiana has had a lot of rain in the New Orleans area, but west central is the same as Texas. Seven Parishes (counties for other states) are federal disaster areas. I drove down the cane river heritage trail on Thursday. I passed miles of dead cornfields. These farmers have lost thier whole crop, same with the cotton fields.
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I see spin about 15/65...maybe this wave is pulling apart? Was there a tundra tidbit today?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
computer models show a mexico hit,,man the US continues to get lucky


Too early to call a landfall, if any. I think a few models (such as LBAR) even still call for Florida. Most models seem to be tightly clustered on a trip through the Caribbean and entering the GOM between the Yucatan and Cuba. That still seems reasonable, but even at that I think we are looking out to Wednesday or so, which is a long time.
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Since it was a little slow today, I made my own blog today. Hope everyone is staying cool with all this heat.
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Doesn't have that 'look'.. surface pressures aren't falling either and there's no sign of a closed low level circulation. The 850 mb vort has diminished considerably from yesterday. IMO <%10 of development.
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computer models show a mexico hit,,man the US continues to get lucky
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compared to yesterday 90L has taken a jog to the north... yesterday it moved .6N and 3.1W and today it moved 1.7N and 5.7W...
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Pressures arent falling though and its not headed into a favorable environment
I beg to differ. This is the buoy closest to 90L.

Conditions at 41101 as of
2000 GMT on 07/23/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last 24 hours of that observation.
24-hour plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
24-hour plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 2.6 m/s
24-hour plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 1.4 m
24-hour plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
24-hour plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1014.2 mb
24-hour plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -1.0 mb ( Falling )
24-hour plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 28.5 °C
24-hour plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 29.3 °C
24-hour plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 23.9 °C
24-hour plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 32.7 °C
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting drs2008:
My guess is cyclogenesis will begin whe Camille began,south of Jamaica


Did yo experience Camille?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
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Hi Tigger! Long time no see -- hope all is well with you and the family.

As to the evacuations - yes -- that's why more places are working on evacuating in place. If you live close to the coast -- move out to some place inland with family or friends. We have all seen that the moving of large populations does not work. Obviously this wouldn't apply to New Orleans, but plenty of places it would work.
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I've been starring at the GOES infrared too long...everything is starting to spin!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
My guess is cyclogenesis will begin whe Camille began,south of Jamaica
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Quoting bappit:

The evacuation for Rita killed people ... literally.


same thing happened during floyd on the east coast... people stuck on the road...lots of people released from hospitals...died on the roads because oxygen tanks ran out etc...total road blocks etc...first they said FL...so they evacuated north....then GA was on the hit list...so they and FL came further north, then SC was on the hit list...by then we were packed with 3 states worth of people...they wouldn't open the roads back to the south...so everyone still tried to go north...it took us 9 hours to go 20 miles by the time we were able to try to leave...it was horrible and we were not trying to go north we went due west on the back roads...the main roads and interstates were worse...
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Quoting angiest:


I think a *lot* of us would like something weak to move in, dump a few inches of rain, and move on. We do need it. Wait til the rest of the country sees what happens to corn, beef, dairy, and wheat prices. Our corn crop failed (statewide), ranchers have been culling herds, the wheat crop failed, cotton largely failed. I'm sure other farming and ranching areas suffered similarly.

We don't want or need another Allison, though.

I sure can't argue with any of that. I guess I'm just a little hesitant to root for any storm this time of year..too many unknown variables in that scenario...jmo
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Best track see post 129

Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Shear is scary low

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting bappit:

The evacuation for Rita killed people ... literally.

My family lived in Elgin, TX. We were on bicycles and motorcycles taking gas to those who ran out trying to get to Austin. It was chaos.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
still watching the critters myself...trust nature compared to machines...they sense things before we do, and they know when troughs are weakening vs holding strong b4 computer models have time to put a change into the scenerio
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90L looks better now. Just for excitement, I hope it forms.
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The models are showing a lotta nuttin.. telling us that we're going to be seeing a lotta nuttin until August or so.
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Quoting brazocane:


Ike evacuation went OK it was Rita that was the evacuation killer...

The evacuation for Rita killed people ... literally.
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Quoting neutralenso:
Does Anyone know what is the best track for 90 L and will shear be favorable in the gulf when it gets there?

everything would just be a guess.
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Nice circulation, broad, just south of PR


May get back to 30% at 8 p.m. if trends continue. The wind shear that tore it apart last night has lifted more to the north.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
12Z ECMWF looks to send the 90L energy up toward the central gulf coast

@ +120



That was fast I really didnt expect that till later tonight.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting redwagon:

This may sound cynical, but Texas has a pretty good evacuation record (not counting Ike :()and we really won't survive much more of this drought.


Ike evacuation went OK it was Rita that was the evacuation killer...
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Quoting redwagon:

This may sound cynical, but Texas has a pretty good evacuation record (not counting Ike :()and we really won't survive much more of this drought.


I think there's some strange force field on the Texan border. Everywhere around you, like Mexico and Louisiana has had drought busting rains. But they all seem to stop at the border.
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181. ackee
I dont think 90L will move over hispanoal likely track south of there also south of jamaica guess we see
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Quoting redwagon:

This may sound cynical, but Texas has a pretty good evacuation record (not counting Ike :()and we really won't survive much more of this drought.


I think a *lot* of us would like something weak to move in, dump a few inches of rain, and move on. We do need it. Wait til the rest of the country sees what happens to corn, beef, dairy, and wheat prices. Our corn crop failed (statewide), ranchers have been culling herds, the wheat crop failed, cotton largely failed. I'm sure other farming and ranching areas suffered similarly.

We don't want or need another Allison, though.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Pressures arent falling though and its not headed into a favorable environment

first let me correct you on something it is headed into a good envronment with 5-10kt shear building to the west of it and the 15 and higher getting kicked out the other thing the pressures will soon fall
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12Z ECMWF..

Link
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Quoting muddertracker:
I know a lot of Texans who are rooting for 90L...that scares me a bit...once these things get into the gulf they are somebody's nightmare.

This may sound cynical, but Texas has a pretty good evacuation record (not counting Ike :()and we really won't survive much more of this drought.
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Quoting chevycanes:

the GFDL doesn't show it moving due west. shows wnw and it doesn't take it all the way to the mexican coast in the latest run. shows it a couple hundred miles NW of the Yucatan.

HWRF doesn't take it due west either. it stops its run with the storm just to the NW of the Yucatan.
Maybe shoot the gap?
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175. JRRP
NE winds all day here in santo domingo
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
90L looks better I think at 8pm TWO 90L will be up to 40% if this continues


Pressures arent falling though and its not headed into a favorable environment
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90L looks better I think at 8pm TWO 90L will be up to 40% if this continues
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Do you think that 90L will have a chance to develop once in the Gulf of Mexico? Any ULL's look to be there in 4-6 days or so?


The GFS and ECMWF have the western Caribbean upper low moving west into Mexico by the Day 4-5 period. With the upper low to the west and the TUTT to the east, chances are there will be an at least semi-favorable pocket between the two, though subsidence south of the big U.S. high may still be an issue. The wave will need to be firing convection near the NW Caribbean and Florida Straights though if it is to have a lot of luck in the gulf.
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Thats why this things arnt very good at forcasting strength but at least its showing us something is their and a general direction though they fail at that at times also i just use um for that resone alone
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Link
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
neapolitan...add Charleston, SC in that at highs 98F (heat index 108)...
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I know a lot of Texans who are rooting for 90L...that scares me a bit...once these things get into the gulf they are somebody's nightmare.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Quoting Neapolitan:
Temps are a little lower than yesterday's, but there's still another two to four hours to, er, beat the heat:

TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECTED US CITIES AS OF 2:00 PM EDT (7/22 HIGHS IN PARENTHESES)

WICHITA FALLS, TX: 100 (104)
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK: 97 (100)
AMARILLO, TX: 95 (100)
KANSAS CITY, MO: 100 (102)
ST. LOUIS, MO: 98 (101)
NEW YORK, NY: 100 (104)
NEWARK, NJ: 102 (108)
PHILADELPHIA, PA: 98 (103)
BALTIMORE, MD: 101 (108)
WASHINGTON, DC: 101 (102)
RICHMOND, VA: 101 (102)
RALEIGH, NC: 101 (103)


I want to say "Oh...poor babies..." But then I remembered that a lot if these folks don't have indoor air..I hope they get relief soon!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
If the GFDL shows 90L at 0 hour which would be now and it is showing the pressure at 1008 mb, why is it showing other places at 1014 mb ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
hey ya keeper...how goes it?...so...do you think 90 is pulling the day time fire up and evening cool down or is it finally pulling together enuf convection to be classified a TD....
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Quoting Patrap:
Lotsa consensus downstream in the Dynamic Run..as well


Oh yeah - that is crazy how close all the models are.
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BTW, I'm having internet problems [again!] so if I drop out of the conversation it's not really me, it's my ISP....

I'm thinking about 90L that it wasn't expected to do much before about 70W, so I wouldn't be surprised to see something after that point. I think there's still sufficient potential there. However, nothing will happen if we don't start to see some real rotation again...

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Yep spins it up around Jamacia
we should see the other models start to pick this up by late tonight or tommorow morning wird ant it
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
GFDL 90 hr out

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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