July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting Walshy:
If it does not develop in the eastern Caribbean it will develop in the western Caribbean.

What was that rule called again?


The John Hope Rule. Actually, I think it states that a system that hasn't developed by the time it enters the Eastern Caribbean, then it won't develop until the Western Caribbean.
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I'm not trying to copy HurricaneDean. I just think a timeline is a good way of forecasting storms.
July 24: 90L goes from a 40% chance of developing to a 30% and upped to 40% at night
July 25: 90L rises to 60% and then 70%
July 26: 90L rises to 80%
July 27: 90L rises to almost 100% at night when it enters the Gulf of Mexico.
July 28: Tropical Depression 4 forms at 2 A.M. and intensifies to a 55 mph storm at night
July 29: Tropical Storm Don strengthens to a Cat. 1 hurricane in the afternoon. Atlantic wave at 10%
July 30: Hurricane Don strengthens to a Cat. 2 and hits Southern Texas/Northern Mexico. Wave at 20%
July 31: Don weakens to a low end TS. Wave at 30%

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Quoting atmoaggie:
If you guys cannot find a politics blog, write one up in your blog space. Then you, and any others interested, can discuss it all you want without the pesky reporting, disappearing posts, and bans.



+1
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If you guys cannot find a politics blog, write one up in your blog space. Then you, and any others interested, can discuss it all you want without the pesky reporting, disappearing posts, and bans.
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If it does not develop in the eastern Caribbean it will develop in the western Caribbean.

What was that rule called again?
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

I think the Center of 90L is trying to get going around 15.2N/64W


Kinda looks that way. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
Quoting Levi32:


It's diurnal min...pressures are falling everywhere.


Hang on, I thought pressures rose during dmin?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23663
Quoting Grothar:
I thought this was the buoy closest to 90L?

Station 42059
NDBC
Location: 15.054N 67.472W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 23 Jul 2011 19:50:00 UTC

Winds: ESE (120°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and falling
Air Temperature: 84.0 F
Dew Point: 77.2 F
Water Temperature: 84.4 F
I think this is the closest on the west but the one I posted is the closest on the east. I think it is actually between the two. Not sure though.
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I think the pressure of 90L is about 1011 to 1012mb
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7729
Quoting angiest:


Was that necessary?
probably not
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250. JRRP
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

It,s just punishment for dumping Bush on the country.


withdrawn..wrong blog
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Quoting angiest:


Couldn't agree more. Plus there are the interesting things like Agnes, that hit west Florida and emerged into the Atlantic and then hit the NE US. Many others did the same.


That's right angiest...and if it enters the GOM whether it is a TD, TS or a cane, the oil rigs stand a chance of a hit...doesn't take much to do damage and then the entire US pays for it by gas prices... it isn't always the size or intensity of the storm that is vital...it is what the storm can produce... take Hugo for instance...Charleston took a pretty good hit...but it was the tornados that the cane spawned that caused ALOT of damage...tens of thousands of trees downed...and those trees hit houses, cars, power lines etc....
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Link

I think the Center of 90L is trying to get going around 15.2N/64W
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7729
I thought this was the buoy closest to 90L?

Station 42059
NDBC
Location: 15.054N 67.472W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 23 Jul 2011 19:50:00 UTC

Winds: ESE (120°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and falling
Air Temperature: 84.0 F
Dew Point: 77.2 F
Water Temperature: 84.4 F
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Quoting RukusBoondocks:
computer models show a mexico hit,,man the US continues to get lucky
What? A hit from a wave or TD. That's not a hit.
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Quoting angiest:


Actually my thinking has always been western or central GOM. ;P
More northerly bias,this year.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
.


Was that necessary?
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
The biggest thing that everyone needs to remember is that computers are only as good as the information they are fed...I have seen on more than one occassion being under SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS...Georgia had gotten hammered by hail, rain, lightning, etc...and it is moving east...it can travel thru SC and once it hits the midlands...that same storm is pulled apart, breaks up, and the coast is lucky to get .1 inches of rain...the computers did NOT foresee this happening...all storms must be watched by everyone in the potential path...and this includes the entire east coast until it enters the GOM...then they still need to see where it goes as it could pull to the north and hit em from the west side instead of the east...


Couldn't agree more. Plus there are the interesting things like Agnes, that hit west Florida and emerged into the Atlantic and then hit the NE US. Many others did the same.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


I just seen that. Thank you for pointing out my mistake. Sorry, I make a lot. I'm only 12 years old. Just getting used to Hurricanes.

ah don't worry kid some of us older guys just seem to forget that you younger guys are just starting to wrap your hands around this type of stuff
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
Yesterday all the talk was 90L heading for Florida. Looking at the GFDL and HWWR they want to take the system towards Northern Mexico (same pattern as last year and Arlene this year).


Actually my thinking has always been western or central GOM. ;P
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The biggest thing that everyone needs to remember is that computers are only as good as the information they are fed...I have seen on more than one occassion being under SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS...Georgia had gotten hammered by hail, rain, lightning, etc...and it is moving east...it can travel thru SC and once it hits the midlands...that same storm is pulled apart, breaks up, and the coast is lucky to get .1 inches of rain...the computers did NOT foresee this happening...all storms must be watched by everyone in the potential path...and this includes the entire east coast until it enters the GOM...then they still need to see where it goes as it could pull to the north and hit em from the west side instead of the east...
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


For twelve you're being very mature. Admitting to mistakes is difficult for many adults. Well done.


Well thanks. Not to boast but I can give almost full discriptions about every storm from TS Arthur to TS Cindy.
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In addition to the heat, the extraordinary CAPE has made itself manifest:

6.86 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE BEEN RECORDED THROUGH 100 PM AT
CHICAGO-OHARE...WHICH ALREADY SHATTERED THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME
CALENDAR DAY RECORD RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE CITY OF CHICAGO. OHARE
AIRPORT IS THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITE FOR THE CITY OF CHICAGO. THE
PERIOD OF RECORD BEGAN IN 1871
. THE PREVIOUS CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL RECORD
WAS 6.64 INCHES ON SEPTEMBER 13TH 2008. INTERESTINGLY...THE
PREVIOUS CALENDAR DAY RECORD FOR JULY 23RD WAS SET ON JULY 23 2010
WITH 2.79 INCHES...ONLY TO BE BROKEN TODAY. THE RECORD EVENT
REPORT ISSUED AT 1100 AM WILL BE UPDATED AFTER 100 AM CDT TONIGHT
SHOULD ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OCCUR PRIOR TO THAT TIME.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=lot&storyid=71194&source=0
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


I just seen that. Thank you for pointing out my mistake. Sorry, I make a lot. I'm only 12 years old. Just getting used to Hurricanes.


For twelve you're being very mature. Admitting to mistakes is difficult for many adults. Well done.
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850mb Vorticity is strong with that CV wave

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know that but not according to JrWeathermanFl.


I just seen that. Thank you for pointing out my mistake. Sorry, I make a lot. I'm only 12 years old. Just getting used to Hurricanes.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
hey ya patrap...hope all is well with you...still waiting to see what your opinion on 90L is...not necessarily what the models are saying...i mean experience of troughs weakening when models say they are going to stick around, storms moving from the mariners 1,2,3 rule and pure gut instinct...


Hiya tiggerific, if 90L can survive to the better environ downstream in the W Caribbean and GOM, it may be a sleeper.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Nice wave coming off Africa. I mentioned it in my blog.

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Ugh, that beautiful rain Patrap showed me isn't moving, it's stationary right now. I need it to move southwest.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's diurnal min...pressures are falling everywhere.
I know that but not according to JrWeathermanFl.
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90L/INV/XX
MARK
17.77N/68.77W
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Quoting Levi32:


It's diurnal min...pressures are falling everywhere.


I just seen that too
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

1)Yes
2)About 3-4 days
3) Yes

My thoughts were almost the same if it can get into a better environment
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Doesn't have that 'look'.. surface pressures aren't falling either and there's no sign of a closed low level circulation. The 850 mb vort has diminished considerably from yesterday. IMO <%10 of development.


yes I agree the 850 vort has weaken not diminished and had also been on the increase from 12Z. Pressures will be falling but slowly. The circulation will close off soon and the look is slowly coming should see it or close to it tonight going into morning
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hey ya patrap...hope all is well with you...still waiting to see what your opinion on 90L is...not necessarily what the models are saying...i mean experience of troughs weakening when models say they are going to stick around, storms moving from the mariners 1,2,3 rule and pure gut instinct...
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I beg to differ. This is the buoy closest to 90L.

Conditions at 41101 as of
2000 GMT on 07/23/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last 24 hours of that observation.
24-hour plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
24-hour plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 2.6 m/s
24-hour plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 1.4 m
24-hour plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
24-hour plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1014.2 mb
24-hour plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -1.0 mb ( Falling )
24-hour plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 28.5 °C
24-hour plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 29.3 °C
24-hour plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 23.9 °C
24-hour plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 32.7 °C


It's diurnal min...pressures are falling everywhere.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26569
Patrap, if that comes our way I will be in heaven!! Keep it going west!!
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Questions:

1. Will Don form out of 90L?
2. When will Don form?
3. Will we see Don before the end of July
Just asking opinions.

1)Yes
2)About 3-4 days
3) Yes
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Louisiana has had a lot of rain in the New Orleans area, but west central is the same as Texas. Seven Parishes (counties for other states) are federal disaster areas. I drove down the cane river heritage trail on Thursday. I passed miles of dead cornfields. These farmers have lost thier whole crop, same with the cotton fields.


In June we took a trip down the coast (to Rockport, lovely little coastal town). We passed miles and miles of dead corn, with some pretty bad looking cotton. The only crop that looked good was sorghum. Where we passed the San Bernard River (which is a small river to begin with) it was bone dry.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I beg to differ. This is the buoy closest to 90L.

Conditions at 41101 as of
2000 GMT on 07/23/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last 24 hours of that observation.
24-hour plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
24-hour plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 2.6 m/s
24-hour plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 1.4 m
24-hour plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
24-hour plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1014.2 mb
24-hour plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -1.0 mb ( Falling )
24-hour plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 28.5 °C
24-hour plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 29.3 °C
24-hour plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 23.9 °C
24-hour plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 32.7 °C


I go by storm 2K. It says the pressure has risen from 1012 mb to 1014mb and shows dry air all around the storm
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
I saw on the model intensity that gfdl had it being a cat 1 close to a cat 2 in 144 plus hours.Does anyone see 90L being that soon?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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