July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting nigel20:
I live in jamaica and over the last couple of years we had some near misses, but sooner or later we will get one soon(major hurricane). The people of jamaica are usualy sceptical of iminent treats, namely Ivan and Dean.


I'm sure the same goes with Tampa.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It would definitely help if the NHC would put up a floater.

They haven't put up a floater yet?
They're hating on 90L.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
One thing I do remember with Gilbert. Loss of power was very short. South Sound road was covered in sand.


Correct with Gilbert lost of power at most 3 days here in South Sound, with Ivan 5 weeks to day we got back power!BTW you gettin any rain EE, not a drop here in South Sound :(
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Quoting angiest:


Was Gilbert the exception to prove the rule? I don't think they got missed there.
I live in jamaica and over the last couple of years we had some near misses, but sooner or later we will get one soon(major hurricane). The people of jamaica are usualy sceptical of iminent treats, namely Ivan and Dean.
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Quoting angiest:


Was Gilbert the exception to prove the rule? I don't think they got missed there.
I live in jamaica and over the last couple of years we had some near misses, but sooner or later we will get one soon(major hurricane). The people of jamaica are usualy sceptical of iminent treats, namely Ivan and Dean.
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It would definitely help if the NHC would put up a floater.
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90L has held together remarkably well during it's current passage over the Lesser Antilles.....The pendng passage over the higher elevations over Hispanola/Cuba might be another matter in terms of trying to organize a circulation convection nothwithstanding......JMO.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8798
304. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



can we plzs not get started with that once it starts i nevere here the end of it and it starts too be come annyoing


Don't you mean the boxes of doom? I don't remember the John Hope rule ever creating problems here.
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

extreme northern mx i think if models are right...could be another alex.

I was thinking that too. I remember Alex... The Big Bad Monsoonal Hurricane.
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Quoting Grothar:


The last Navy fix was 15.9N 63.7W, which was quite a while ago. And it does look like the convection is trying to get closer to the center. Looking better on each run.

I don't know whether it will develop or not but I got a good "feeling" it will. LOL Call it women's intuition. :)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Model consensus has shifted south from what 90L was predicted to go on, looks like it will take the southern envelope of the consensus.


Model intensity.


Dynamic models.


90L's heading into 40kt shear, no development is likely.
somebody please contact the invest and tell it it needs to go south to follow the model consensus
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think this is the closest on the west but the one I posted is the closest on the east. I think it is actually between the two. Not sure though.


The last Navy fix was 15.9N 63.7W, which was quite a while ago. And it does look like the convection is trying to get closer to the center. Looking better on each run.

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Quoting stormpetrol:


I remember Gilbert back in 1988 passing roughly the same distance to our south as Ivan in 2004 , both were cat 5 at the time with Gilbert supposedly to be the more intense, personally it was just a good summer squall compared to Ivan, which devastated the East and south side of Grand Cayman.
One thing I do remember with Gilbert. Loss of power was very short. South Sound road was covered in sand.
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Quoting angiest:


Was Gilbert the exception to prove the rule? I don't think they got missed there.


I remember Gilbert back in 1988 passing roughly the same distance to our south as Ivan in 2004 , both were cat 5 at the time with Gilbert supposedly to be the more intense, personally it was just a good summer squall compared to Ivan, which devastated the East and south side of Grand Cayman.
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
just se of pr


That's where it looks like to me too.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Model consensus has shifted south from what 90L was predicted to go on, looks like it will take the southern envelope of the consensus.


Model intensity.


Dynamic models.


90L's heading into 40kt shear, no development is likely.


Shear is really not the issue that will be inhibiting this feature. Possible subsidence from the high to the north and land interaction are the main obstacles here. Wind shear will be fine for most of this system's journey.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting angiest:


Was Gilbert the exception to prove the rule? I don't think they got missed there.
No, Gilbert hit them good and hard but there have been quite a few that were "supposed" to be a direct hit and went south or north of them just brushing them. Ivan was supposed to be a direct hit and he skirted the south coast.
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the navy site thinks that this is are real 90L





but i have all so noted that this too the S of HISPANIOLA wish seems too be a low froming
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Models say Kingston, Jamaica in the bullseye... we all know that won't happen. They are the Tampa Bay of the Caribbean.


Was Gilbert the exception to prove the rule? I don't think they got missed there.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
wish one of them waves is the real 90L?
That's a very good question. I think the trailer looks better on infrared...Link
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waiting to see where the new coc emerges...thinking it is going to be north of the original....
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you no what mr i said this in a nic way and your like jumping the gune on me for nothing i said that in a nic way not in a mean way you need too larn too read my post more carefully be for posting
you do have a way with words Taz.
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wish one of them waves is the real 90L?
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127559
Quoting Tazmanian:



you no what mr i said this in a nic way and your like jumping the gune on me for nothing i said that in a nic way not in a mean way you need too larn too read my post more carefully be for posting


ok
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I think 90L will go back to 20% at 8pm, on a long shot maybe even 30%, I strongly believe 90L will become Don, possibly the first hurricane of the 2011 season , just my opinion of course.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Model consensus has shifted south from what 90L was predicted to go on, looks like it will take the southern envelope of the consensus.


Model intensity.


Dynamic models.


90L's heading into 40kt shear, no development is likely.



not if it can stay N all so the next wind shear map update may show lower wind shear
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I'm looking at 90L and thinking "hmmmm". Guess a few more days will tell a tale.
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Quoting muddertracker:
Sorry, Taz...this blog is not here for your entertainment only...lol...lighten up...sheeesh...it's a relevant topic to tropical weather.



you no what mr i said this in a nic way and your like jumping the gune on me for nothing i said that in a nic way not in a mean way you need too larn too read my post more carefully be for posting
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Model consensus has shifted south from what 90L was predicted to go on, looks like it will take the southern envelope of the consensus.


Model intensity.


Dynamic models.


90L's heading into 40kt shear, no development is likely.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

It,s just punishment for dumping Bush on the country.
Brother Jeb was on Hannity and he said he may run in 2016.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hang on, I thought pressures rose during dmin?


Diurnal convective minimum before sunset is different than the diurnal pressure cycles that we talk about in the buoy data. A minimum pressure occurs near 4am and 4pm local time every day (against a background of nearly flat pressure trends), most pronounced over the low latitudes where the sun is more directly overhead. The pressure tends to not start rising again until after 6pm local time, and right now it is 8 minutes until 6pm near 90L.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting ImitationDorito:
Circulation has been south of the convection since this morning. But, if you watch the last few frames of the Caribbean Rainbow Loop, you'll see the circulation come up from the SE to meet the convection in the north. They meet at 15, 65.


if the center changes (which is not unusual for an invest) it could change where it goes...it could very well pull FL back into the mix...the only good thing is that it would then have to travel over the islands and high terrain which would pull it apart and not give it as much of a chance to develop into anything severe...but could be a much needed rain maker
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Quoting txjac:
To any of our bloggers from Norway,

My heart goes out to the citizens of your country as it attempts to heal from the attacks. In my mind I cannot image what you must be feeling. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

I know that this isnt the place for this type of post however I thought that I have seen people from Norway on here in the past.

How very sad


Txjac,

Im just a Teenager in High School, but let me just say.... when ever we think of terriost attacks... we always think of Muslims... well thats wrong... because this time it was a christain conservative...

Anway.... 90L's chances of developing are slim...as it will slam into cuba eventually.

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268. beell
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hang on, I thought pressures rose during dmin?


Here, CyberTeddy. I had this made into a refrigerator magnet so I could keep it straight!

Pressure Dmin for "minimum pressure" at "local" time.








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Quoting Tazmanian:



can we plzs not get started with that once it starts i nevere here the end of it and it starts too be come annyoing
Sorry, Taz...this blog is not here for your entertainment only...lol...lighten up...sheeesh...it's a relevant topic to tropical weather.
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266. JRRP

Link
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Quoting angiest:


The John Hope Rule. Actually, I think it states that a system that hasn't developed by the time it enters the Eastern Caribbean, then it won't develop until the Western Caribbean.



can we plzs not get started with that once it starts i nevere here the end of it and it starts too be come annyoing
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Circulation has been south of the convection since this morning. But, if you watch the last few frames of the Caribbean Rainbow Loop, you'll see the circulation come up from the SE to meet the convection in the north. They meet at 15, 65.
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Quoting Walshy:
If it does not develop in the eastern Caribbean it will develop in the western Caribbean.

What was that rule called again?

The John Hope rule.
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Quoting Walshy:
If it does not develop in the eastern Caribbean it will develop in the western Caribbean.

What was that rule called again?


The John Hope Rule. Actually, I think it states that a system that hasn't developed by the time it enters the Eastern Caribbean, then it won't develop until the Western Caribbean.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.