July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Not saying this will happen. But we did get some rain when Dolly hit. Even way up here.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
I'm throwing my hat into the ring for Levi as future Director at the NHC......

As always Levi... thanks for your great feedback !!!!
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399. IceCoast 5:25 PM EST on July 23, 2011

Actually I did not stay in Boston this time except for overnight but have been there before and love the city. Spent the week in Providence and Newport.
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NHC changing the SSHWS????

------------------------------------------------- ---------
1 74-95 mph 74-95 mph
64-82 kt 64-82 kt
119-153 kph 119-153 kph

2 96-110 mph 96-110 mph
83-95 kt 83-95 kt
154-177 kt 154-177 kt

3 111-130 mph 111-129 mph
96-113 kt 96-112 kt
178-209 kph 178-208 kph

4 131-155 mph 130-156 mph
114-135 kt 113-136 kt
210-249 kph 209-251 kph

5 156 mph or higher 157 mph or higher
136 kt or higher 137 kt or higher
250 kph or higher 252 kph or higher
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
406. yoboi
Quoting Levi32:
383. A straight northward turn in the GOM like Ivan is highly unlikely here with the strong-as-a-rock ridge over the southern United States.


we not to worried about this storm i am from cameron la and we have been in a long drought all summer until the past week lately most stors have been coming off the GOM from west to east and the crickets have been migrating north by the hundreds just like before a few weeks of landfall like hurricane rita and hurricane ike someone should conduct a study with crickets and hurricanes i will be shooting a video soon showing the cricket migration any thoughts???
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Quoting IceCoast:


Hey! are you subtly saying we need to be weary up here in New England this year! Lol jk, obviously way to far out. We are overdue though, Bob hit the year after I was born. I bet once i move to Denver this year we finally get one just to spite me. Hope you enjoyed your stay in Boston.


You may be weary of the heat but I was not suggesting you be wary of the tropics LOL. I was in Newport for two days and got fogged in Wednesday night and Thursday morning. !!
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Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Levi, yesterday you pointed this system right at FL. What changed in the steering flow? Also, at least for now, it seems that we are stuck in the same pattern (straight west) as last year.


Nothing has changed all that much. The south Florida/eastern gulf area should still see this wave come through. The problem with track right now is getting a consolidated low center to develop. Until we have that, it could develop anywhere along the wave axis, giving us a variety of latitudes that it could track along. The guts of the wave are now over the big Caribbean islands, which I fully expected the last couple days.

As for whether it continues straight west (i.e. across the Yucatan and into Mexico again), we will have to see how strong the Texas ridge is when it gets there. Again, that ridge usually lifts a bit farther north during August-October in years similar to 2011. We'll see if this year follows that trend.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Levi,

The action is picking up fairly quickly now. With all the crazy weather world wide who knows what we may see this year. I was in Boston yesterday and it felt like an oven.

July has been quite active in the tropics for what is generally a fairly quiet month historically and this may not bode well for the rest of the season.


Hey! are you subtly saying we need to be weary up here in New England this year! Lol jk, obviously way to far out. We are overdue though, Bob hit the year after I was born. I bet once i move to Denver this year we finally get one just to spite me. Hope you enjoyed your stay in Boston.
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I think it will be bumped up to 20%
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7658
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Poll time:

8pm advisory..90L will be

A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. No change
E. Tropical depression (just for fun)

I vote C


A and I'm been generous. But once it clears Cuba if it survives, then all bets are off.
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6.86 inches fell at Ohare in 3 hours, beginning at midnight. The total
event rained 8.2 inches at Ohare . I fine this interesting, because
this is the 1st ann. of the this 7 inch event one year ago.
" One year ago today, July 22, 2010, at just after 5 p.m., the skies
blackened, huge swirling clouds rolled over the north metro Milwaukee
area, and torrential rain began to pour down."

http://sussex.patch.com/ar​ticles/one-year-late r-july​-22-flood-effects-can-stil​l-be-fel
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Out of Brownsville

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LONGER RANGE GFS AND
ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT IN THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE
500 MB RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES WITH
BOTH OF THE MODELS REFLECTING A BROADER AND MORE EASTWARD PLACED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING. THIS MORE EASTWARD POSITIONING OF THE MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS MAKES FOR A MORE PESSIMISTIC RAIN FORECAST IN THE
3 TO 7 DAY RANGE AS MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE STILL REMAINS
POOLED TOO FAR TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TO PRODUCE MUCH HOPE FOR
CONV. HOWEVER ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR DEEP SOUTH TX IS THE
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE FROM HPC/NHC SHOWS THAT THIS WAVE WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEX NEXT WED/THUR EVENTUALLY
APPROACHING THE TX COASTLINE NEXT SAT. MORE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE MAY BEGIN TO EDGE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TX AS NEXT WEEKEND APPROACHES POSSIBLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR
SOME BETTER CONV CHCS BY THE END OF THIS COMING WEEK. FOR NOW WILL
GO A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE GFS MEX POPS AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FINAL TRACK OF
THE WAVE. CURRENTLY IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS FEATURE IS
FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AND NHC IS GIVING IT ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DESPITE THIS...
RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TX SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM NHC CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF THIS
FEATURE.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

A or B.


D.
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Quoting tennisgirl08:
Poll time:

8pm advisory..90L will be

A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. No change
E. Tropical depression (just for fun)

I vote C


I agree C
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
IMO any development of 90L should occur Monday at the earliest.


I agree.
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IMO any development of 90L should occur Monday at the earliest.
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Quoting tennisgirl08:
Vorticity is not as strong, but it sure looks better on satellite to me.


The 925 mb vort has certainly improved in the past 6 hrs. but very elongated to the WNW. 90L has a lot of work to do to develop a closed surface low. The image below shows the vorticity signature draped over high terrain which is not a set up that favours development in the short term.

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383. A straight northward turn in the GOM like Ivan is highly unlikely here with the strong-as-a-rock ridge over the southern United States.
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Quoting tennisgirl08:
Poll time:

8pm advisory..90L will be

A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. No change
E. Tropical depression (just for fun)

I vote C

A or B.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, I dont like this at all if it pans out as the ECMWF projects in the July update for the peak months in terms of lower pressures. Look at the Caribbean.



The ECMWF has been showing a more concerning pattern with each succeeding monthly forecast.
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383. yoboi
Quoting Levi32:
Intensity models are heavily influenced by environmental conditions, and may show a strengthening system if conditions ahead of it are favorable, even if the system itself is not well-organized at the time.


i am a metorolgist and surgen from Lsu i sunday night and monday morning we will be sending data in the air over the south of GOM right now still up in the air our concern is upper level jet stream and the ridge of high pressure over the east coast our thinking is that the ridge will move to the west slightly this is a concern for the GOM also if invest 90 survies winde shear and makes it to the GOM we will look at current warm llop currents in the GOM right now not like 2005 but if a stong storm enters the GOM i will predict a north turn this storm kinda reminds me of an Ivan landfall track if it survies
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Vorticity is not as strong, but it sure looks better on satellite to me.
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Quoting Levi32:


Diurnal convective minimum is a bit before sunset, because the warmest point in the day on land is not at sunset, but before, right when the solar radiation flux into the ground equals the ground's radiation flux outward, and then becomes less than that, which is when the land starts cooling.

In the morning, diurnal convective maximum occurs a bit after sunrise, because again, the coolest part of the night is actually just after sunrise (usually), as the first little bit of incoming solar radiation at sunrise doesn't immediately overcome the outgoing radiation from the ground.
got it, thanks
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Quoting tennisgirl08:
Poll time:

8pm advisory..90L will be

A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. No change
E. Tropical depression (just for fun)

I vote C


F. 10% or A. 20%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


But certainly they would take land interaction into account too I would think?


Most of the models take the "center" through the gaps between Jamaica and Hispaniola, and then Jamaica and Cuba. Land interaction being fed into the intensity models is probably not that bad at this point.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


But certainly they would take land interaction into account too I would think?


It's going to move just south of land, i think.
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Invest 90L is once again organizing this afternoon. It has a more impressive satellite appearance than earlier, but still, it is not as organized as it was 24-36 hours ago.

I'd keep the percentages at 10% for now, maybe raise it to 20%. I could easily see 90L becoming a problem down the road, but for now, development will be slow. I will say one thing though, it it takes a track over Jamaica...We may see our first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season by the time it is entering the GOMEX. Development into a TC, if any, will probably occur after it passes 70-75W.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hi Kman, you know the thing that I wonder about - if this thing doesn't really have a good shot to develop (which I do not think it does at least imo, I think the wave out where you mentioned with the tightening area of 850 mb vort could be worth watching) why are the intensity models making this so strong, and the dynamical models make 90L completely miss Hispaniola. Most of the intensity models show 90L nearing hurricane status or at Hurricane status in 120 hours or so.


A very good question but I am not sure I have the answer. I would venture to guess that the intensity models are assuming the system does develop on a track forecast that would allow for intensification and including an upper level environment that is forecast to be favourable. The upper levels do look conducive at this time although having just come on for the day I have not looked at the forecast for the next few days. I suspect that if 90L tracks closer to Hispaniola the intensity forecasts would fall off considerably.

Levi may know the technical answer to this.

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Levi, I dont like this at all if it pans out as the ECMWF projects in the July update for the peak months in terms of lower pressures. Look at the Caribbean.

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Poll time:

8pm advisory..90L will be

A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. No change
E. Tropical depression (just for fun)

I vote C
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Intensity models are heavily influenced by environmental conditions, and may show a strengthening system if conditions ahead of it are favorable, even if the system itself is not well-organized at the time.


But certainly they would take land interaction into account too I would think?
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Quoting kmanislander:


The GFDL is ok once you get a closed low. At this stage of 90L I wouldn't place too much reliance on either the GFDL or HWRF.


I agree. At this point, I would rely more on the GFS or the ECMWF. The more develop the system is and the more defined the COC is the better the GFDL will perform. So at this point I do not have much confidence in what the GFDL is forecasting.
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Intensity models are heavily influenced by environmental conditions, and may show a strengthening system if conditions ahead of it are favorable, even if the system itself is not well-organized at the time.
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Quoting Levi32:


I agree. The models show the wave train becoming active and aimed at the Caribbean and southern U.S. during the next couple weeks. Regardless of whether any of these next few waves develop, this pattern, if it lasts, may become ugly later in August.


Yeah it may not be exactly like 2004 or 2005, but it's similar enough to cause problems the next couple of months if it stays locked in place.
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Quoting Levi32:


The one thing about the GFDL though is that this year I have noticed it is doing a good job so far in not developing the systems that have not developed.


A model with a contrarian view ?? LOL
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Hi Kman, you know the thing that I wonder about - if this thing doesn't really have a good shot to develop (which I do not think it does at least imo, I think the wave out where you mentioned with the tightening area of 850 mb vort could be worth watching) why are the intensity models making this so strong, and the dynamical models make 90L completely miss Hispaniola. Most of the intensity models show 90L nearing hurricane status or at Hurricane status in 120 hours or so.
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Quoting Levi32:


I agree. The models show the wave train becoming active and aimed at the Caribbean and southern U.S. during the next couple weeks. Regardless of whether any of these next few waves develop, this pattern, if it lasts, may become ugly later in August.


Very much agree! Maybe a season that is not as bad as 2005 but worse than 2004. Way too early for the tropics to be this active!!
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Quoting kmanislander:


The GFDL is ok once you get a closed low. At this stage of 90L I wouldn't place too much reliance on either the GFDL or HWRF.


The one thing about the GFDL though is that this year I have noticed it is doing a good job so far in not developing the systems that have not developed.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
So does the convective cycle peak before sunrise and sunset? I've heard its right at sunrise and sunset and also just after. I suppose it doesn't really matter since its only a difference of about half an hour but just wondering.


Diurnal convective minimum is a bit before sunset, because the warmest point in the day on land is not at sunset, but before, right when the solar radiation flux into the ground equals the ground's radiation flux outward, and then becomes less than that, which is when the land starts cooling.

In the morning, diurnal convective maximum occurs a bit after sunrise, because again, the coolest part of the night is actually just after sunrise (usually), as the first little bit of incoming solar radiation at sunrise doesn't immediately overcome the outgoing radiation from the ground.
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I don't know if it will be all that slow to get a little more organized. The land interaction could be a big problem.

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.