July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Coming out of lurking just to ask if "Cricket Caster" is a new one on the list:-)


Quoting yoboi:


we not to worried about this storm i am from cameron la and we have been in a long drought all summer until the past week lately most stors have been coming off the GOM from west to east and the crickets have been migrating north by the hundreds just like before a few weeks of landfall like hurricane rita and hurricane ike someone should conduct a study with crickets and hurricanes i will be shooting a video soon showing the cricket migration any thoughts???
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Oh no I just realized I said Don would be here at 1700 on Sunday.

Does this blog have take backs?



You're allowed one take back a year. After that you have to suffer like the rest of us. I think you used yours on January 1st.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Oh no I just realized I said Don would be here at 1700 on Sunday.

Does this blog have take backs?
No, but you are lucky to have lots of fellow bloggers with memory like sieves...
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Dora should be down to 40 mph at 8PM PDT.

EP, 04, 2011072318, , BEST, 0, 214N, 1123W, 35, 1003, TS,

90L still at 25 knots, pressure up one millibar to 1014 mb.

AL, 90, 2011072318, , BEST, 0, 159N, 637W, 25, 1014, DB,
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not been that hot for that long, but we've been under an Excessive Heat Warning for the past two days. Made it to 101 �F yesterday, and 98 �F today. However, we had heat indices above 115 �F yesterday and 105 �F today.


gross! haha sounds like summer tho, never gets old.... right? :p

Quoting Grothar:


TD, you still around? How you doing?


hey hey! yeah still hanging, you? ive been great, super busy chasing this year, but overall pretty good
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Um... why r we wasting time discussing this guy's creds?

Oh.

No storms anywhere.... yeah, I guess there's nothing else to do....

But, SERIOUSLY.... looks like I can expect an extremely rainy afternoon tomorrow... lol. I don't think 90L is suddenly going to become a DRY Twave.... and it feels really good to finally have summer arrive.... when the wx comes from the SE instead of the NW....
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Quoting FrankZapper:
You don't spell to well either, so I question your "medical" credentials. You do have one of the traits of a surgeon however, a big ego. This is the 2nd time in 2 days that you have mentioned you are a surgeon as part of your posts. I imagine you go everywhere in scrubs and elbow your way to the front of the line cause your "entitled". How do I know this? Cause I dealt with your type for many years. Most surgeons are down to Earth and don't advertise it in public at every chance. Just trying to give you some friendly advise. Hope your not into harassing the hospital staff yet, esp the OR crew.


+100
Member Since: August 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 220
Quoting jrweatherman:


If he has a met degree and is now a surgeon then I'm a noble prize winner. And I'm only 14 yrs old.


Really? phew...glad to know I'm not the only one :)
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Quoting tornadodude:
good evening all


TD, you still around? How you doing?
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Quoting tornadodude:


frickin hot! haha have had an excessive heat warning for a week now, been at 96 or higher for almost a week, hit 103 with a heat index of 119 on wednesday

you?


Not been that hot for that long, but we've been under an Excessive Heat Warning for the past two days. Made it to 101 F yesterday, and 98 F today. However, we had heat indices above 115 F yesterday and 105 F today.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
You don't spell to well either, so I question your "medical" credentials. You do have one of the traits of a surgeon however, a big ego. This is the 2nd time in 2 days that you have mentioned you are a surgeon as part of your posts. I imagine you go everywhere in scrubs and elbow your way to the front of the line cause your "entitled". How do I know this? Cause I dealt with your type for many years. Most surgeons are down to Earth and don't advertise it in public at every chance. Just trying to give you some friendly advise. Hope your not into harassing the hospital staff yet, esp the OR crew.


If he has a met degree and is now a surgeon then I'm a noble prize winner. And I'm only 14 yrs old.
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Seeing the NHC comments, I am assuming no circulation with 90L?

If not, I don't see them upping numbers at 8 p.m.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey tornadodude, how is the weather there?


frickin hot! haha have had an excessive heat warning for a week now, been at 96 or higher for almost a week, hit 103 with a heat index of 119 on wednesday

you?
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Quoting yoboi:


you could be right but i know my stuff ever seen a drs handwriting??? we think fast write fast type fast sorry if you can't understand just the way we are.... if you need extra help understanding i will guide you to what i am saying....
I am just saying tone back on the "I am a surgeon" stuff. Maybe I am a MD from LSU/Charity too but I never use that in publc or on the blog to impress. I just don't want to see anyone end up(ego wise) like that NS in NOLA who has the big "Institute".
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90L looks a lot better than what it did this morning. I will say 75W-80W is the area to watch. If 90L continues to fire convection and organize further, we will need to watch this very closely for the potential of Don. Has the appearance of a strong tropical wave now...

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I still think 90L will develop. Remember Alex from last year, got real organized then kinda died down for a bit so the NHC lowered the percentages for a while but then it really got going. Not saying this will be a CAT II like Alex (although it's still not impossible) but a TS at least from this thing really looks like a decent possibility and if it gets into the Gulf Of Mexico where the SSTs are quite steaming for this time of year, I wouldn't count off a hurricane at all.
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Quoting tornadodude:
good evening all


Hey tornadodude, how is the weather there?
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good evening all
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Quoting kmanislander:


You may be weary of the heat but I was not suggesting you be wary of the tropics LOL. I was in Newport for two days and got fogged in Wednesday night and Thursday morning. !!
Hey there, kman.... somehow I figured you were out of town... lol

Any prior comments on 90L? I'd like to have your take on it...
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS
GURABO
JUNCOS
LAS PIEDRAS
SAN LORENZO

* UNTIL 930 PM AST

* AT 630 PM AST...USGS RIVER SENSORS INDICATED THAT THE RIO CAYAGUAS
AND RIO GRANDE DE LOIZA IN SAN LORENZO WERE RISING RAPIDLY AND
APPROACHING ITS FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...EXPECT FLOODING ALONG ITS
TRIBUTARIES AND ON ROADWAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
436. yoboi
Quoting yoboi:


you could be right but i know my stuff ever seen a drs handwriting??? we think fast write fast type fast sorry if you can't understand just the way we are.... if you need extra help understanding i will guide you to what i am saying....


not in scrubs now only when i need to be you have been watching way too much tv and by the way the or listens to me sorry if your offended just the way it is i don't have a big head but i will challenge you to a debate anytime........
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Quoting IceCoast:


I bet ya did, with all that humidity i'm sure the fog got bad down there. You probably picked the hottest day in the past decade to come visit us, it's usually pleasant during the summer. One of these years the tropics will make another visit to the New England coast.


The fog was bad but I compensated with a 3 pound lobster and a good bottle of wine LOL

Back later.
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
still think it warrants aleast 20% nothing more and nothing less lol.


Could be. Other than some deep convection there are no other ingredients of interest at this time.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You still here Levi?

If so, what would you say the chances of 90L ever developing are?


Generally low for the short-term, but if it is firing convection like it is now by the time it gets past 80W, then it may be an issue in the gulf. It's tempting to forget about it when not a single global model develops it, but I would watch it closely, as it could be a sneak.
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NOAA Radios Become Critical As Extreme Weather Events Increase

All of these personalized tools are better solutions than outdoor public sirens, which "cost a tremendous amount of money" and "most people don't even hear, said Satterfield. He highlighted the greater importance of filling in the current gaps in NOAA weather radio coverage. Right now, just over 98 percent of American homes can receive the alerts through a network of more than 1,000 transmitters, each linked with 123 local offices.

To cover that last 1.5 to 2 percent of the population would be very costly, noted White. We're trying other innovative methods to get the warnings out to these people.

For individuals living in coverage areas and interested in purchasing a NOAA radio, White encourages looking for products that carry the Public Alert logo. This signifies that the device meets certain technical standards and comes with the most critical features. The radios can be purchased at a variety of retail stores, as well as online.

Satterfield's personal recommendations: the Midland WR 100 or 300.


WR-100


WR-300
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Quoting Grothar:
It looks like 90L is beginning to really look like a strong tropical wave.





it looks like TOMAS came back from the dead
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Quoting kmanislander:


You may be weary of the heat but I was not suggesting you be wary of the tropics LOL. I was in Newport for two days and got fogged in Wednesday night and Thursday morning. !!


I bet ya did, with all that humidity i'm sure the fog got bad down there. You probably picked the hottest day in the past decade to come visit us, it's usually pleasant during the summer. One of these years the tropics will make another visit to the New England coast.
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Quoting islander101010:
texas might get more than they want with 90
if the wave moves off cuba could get quite strong in the gulf
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
It looks like 90L is beginning to really look like a strong tropical wave.

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Don't think they will be raising the percentage for now.
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Quoting yoboi:


also i disagee with you in louisiana the high pressure ridge over louisians as broken down and shifted to the east thats why we have record temps on the east coast now here in louisiana we have very moist and straight south winds from the GOM brining very tropical mostiure from the gulf....what you see is not always what is true..........
texas might get more than they want with 90
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
You still here Levi?

If so, what would you say the chances of 90L ever developing are?
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I'm out until later. 90L looks like 10% at the next update. The blow up of convection alone would not warrant an upgrade from that IMO given all other relevant factors. More bark than bite in the thunderstorms.
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Quoting TXHolly:


Whatever happens with 90L, there's a lot of Texas that could really use the rain it could bring. I just hope it doesn't develop into anything serious.


That's what I'm hoping for too Holly. :) If a storm/twave moved into south TX probably more of TX would get the needed rain than if it came in farther up the coast.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
Quoting yoboi:


i am a metorolgist and surgen from Lsu i sunday night and monday morning we will be sending data in the air over the south of GOM right now still up in the air our concern is upper level jet stream and the ridge of high pressure over the east coast our thinking is that the ridge will move to the west slightly this is a concern for the GOM also if invest 90 survies winde shear and makes it to the GOM we will look at current warm llop currents in the GOM right now not like 2005 but if a stong storm enters the GOM i will predict a north turn this storm kinda reminds me of an Ivan landfall track if it survies
You don't spell to well either, so I question your "medical" credentials. You do have one of the traits of a surgeon however, a big ego. This is the 2nd time in 2 days that you have mentioned you are a surgeon as part of your posts. I imagine you go everywhere in scrubs and elbow your way to the front of the line cause your "entitled". How do I know this? Cause I dealt with your type for many years. Most surgeons are down to Earth and don't advertise it in public at every chance. Just trying to give you some friendly advise. Hope your not into harassing the hospital staff yet, esp the OR crew.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Not saying this will happen. But we did get some rain when Dolly hit. Even way up here.



Whatever happens with 90L, there's a lot of Texas that could really use the rain it could bring. I just hope it doesn't develop into anything serious.
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Hmmm. Corpus...

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
CONTINUES THE REIGN OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF
THE UNITED STATES. WITH THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH GREATER 1000-500MB THICKNESS MID WEEK...INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. OVERALL...BASICALLY A PERSISTENT
FORECAST. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE
FORECAST MODELS KEEP AN OPEN WAVE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME SHIFTING EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE IN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
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413. yoboi
Quoting Levi32:
383. A straight northward turn in the GOM like Ivan is highly unlikely here with the strong-as-a-rock ridge over the southern United States.


also i disagee with you in louisiana the high pressure ridge over louisians as broken down and shifted to the east thats why we have record temps on the east coast now here in louisiana we have very moist and straight south winds from the GOM brining very tropical mostiure from the gulf....what you see is not always what is true..........
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Quoting tennisgirl08:
Poll time:

8pm advisory..90L will be

A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. No change
E. Tropical depression (just for fun)

I vote C


B.
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Not saying this will happen. But we did get some rain when Dolly hit. Even way up here.

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.