July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2261 - 2211

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
2184. sarahjola 10:46 AM EDT on July 25, 2011

BTW, I miss-spoke when I used Humberto as an answer to your question; Humberto remained as a Cat 1 when it came ashore I believe and certainly not a major when it spun up quickly.


Here's another RI story in just about the same place that Humberto came ashore. Written by DRM. Still gives me chills. Link

Overnight, Audrey intensified rapidly, and more than doubled her forward speed from the 7 mph speed observed that afternoon. When residents of Cameron awoke on June 27, the escape routes had already been flooded by the storm surge. Audrey now packed top winds of 145-150 mph--an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane, the most powerful June hurricane on record. A massive storm surge of 12 feet swept through the bayous the morning of June 27, pushing inland over 25 miles. The final death toll will never be known, but it is thought 550 people--including over 100 children--perished in Audrey. It was America's deadliest hurricane disaster between the time of the New England Hurricane of 1938 (682 killed) and Hurricane Katrina of 2005 (1833 killed).

Comparison of Audrey and Rita
Why was Audrey so much deadlier than Hurricane Rita of 2005? Rita hit the same region of coast with weaker winds (Category 3, 115 mph), but a storm surge even higher (15 feet). Rita destroyed virtually 100% of Cameron, whereas Audrey destroyed 75% of the town. Nearly two years later, Cameron is mostly just concrete slabs and trailers, thanks to Rita. However, Rita caused only one direct death in Southwest Louisiana--a drowning in Lake Charles. The answer is preparedness. Rita was a massive Category 5 hurricane several days before landfall, giving people plenty of time to receive the warnings and evacuate. Warning systems are much better now than in 1957, and Cameron was deserted when Rita hit. But Audrey did something hurricane forecasters still fear could cause a high death toll in the future, despite our better warning systems--rapid intensification with a sudden forward speed increase overnight, bringing a much stronger hurricane to the coast far earlier than expected. If this nightmare scenario happens to one of our major cities in the future, another Audrey-like death toll could easily result.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Definitely not writing this one off yet. Will be interesting what the NHC doest at 2pm. Will they knock it back up to 10 or 20% ?




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning guys. Just because 90L has been deactivated, well, that does not mean that we need to stop monitoring it. You guys can count me in the "still watching" group. Ex-90L has really shrunk down in size to a little blob just to the south of Cuba. Vorticity is weak in the 850 mb. levels, but fairly strong farther up. As it heads west, it will enter very warm Sea Surface Temperatures and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, along with a favorable environment. At this time, I would give Ex-90L a 10% chance for development in the next 48 hours.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If a center were to form, would be just North or NW of the western tip of Jamaica
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


The Cayman Trench. I was curious...so...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry...........try this one.........Zoom and LOOP and turn the speed up........easily seen!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.h tml
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:







Are we DOOM?


OMG :o) You Guys are "Killing Me"


Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
actually, the wind shear is not so hostile for ex-90L. I think we need to keep a close eye on this system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2250. scott39
90L will get to eat its can of spinach in about 24 hours!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No matter what happens with 90L, just remember I told ya so.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Surface spin is observed at 19N 78W......just off shore of Cuba off the Tip!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:
Isotherm
From

So if a storm is whipping along very quickly, it wouldn't take advantange of the heat b/c it wouldn't be able to interact with it? How slow does a tc need to be moving in order to take full advantage of the heat source interaction? (If I am wrong...please correct me)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
Quoting DestinJeff:
Sorry, had to go to the 'pen to bring The Heat.

I will leash that beast now, and I apologize for now warning you all before I whipped it out.
Soooo... DOOM:CON level is sustained at the moment? Phew, thought we might have got a 10mph gust and some rain spots on the car...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:

Not sure if I recall a post warranting crow to be served one way or another in regards to 90L.






Really? I can see several esteemed members standing at the graveside of 90L and tossing flowers on the casket.

There is no "wishing" involved here. Storms do what they do.However, the tenacity to which people cling to those little circles the NHC places on storms is often comical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Speed convergence racing in from the east of old 90L, low level clouds racing towards it on visible loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes


Speed this up if you don't believe a surface spin is not there..........WOW! READY SET GO!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Isotherm
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

An isothermal process is a change of a system, in which the temperature remains constant: ΔT = 0. This typically occurs when a system is in contact with an outside thermal reservoir (heat bath), and the change occurs slowly enough to allow the system to continually adjust to the temperature of the reservoir through heat exchange. In contrast, an adiabatic process is where a system exchanges no heat with its surroundings (Q = 0). In other words, in an isothermal process, the value ΔT = 0 but Q ≠ 0, while in an adiabatic process, ΔT ≠ 0 but Q = 0.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting RitaEvac:
Gonna get REEEEEAAAAALLLLL interesting once this thing gets to western Cuba


Techinially..........this is also an African Wave also........just sayn!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow just checking in and I see x-90L still hanging in there.... Looks to be coming to the Gulf sooner than we all think, thats why I have never writen off this "Wave".....


Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2233. Patrap
Depth of 26C isotherm

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
I like to do first-page Google results research, and what I found is remarkable concerning hurricane actvity over the last 100 years.

As it happens, and according to this equally as remarkable graphic, hurricanes and tropical storms are LESS LIKELY to form in June and July. This of course in direct contradiction to what many would desire, but The Chart doesn't lie.

Behold:



(used with expressed, written consent of Major League Baseball)


Ooooo; had to bust out "the CHART"
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting DestinJeff:
I like to do first-page Google results research, and what I found is remarkable concerning hurricane actvity over the last 100 years.

As it happens, and according to this equally as remarkable graphic, hurricanes and tropical storms are LESS LIKELY to form in June and July. This of course in direct contradiction to what many would desire, but The Chart doesn't lie.

Behold:



(used with expressed, written consent of Major League Baseball)



Dam it Jeff..........Stop downcasting. Stop being so honest!......ROFLMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gonna get REEEEEAAAAALLLLL interesting once this thing gets to western Cuba
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow! Lots of reasons why! Thanks everyone.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
2228. Patrap
GOES-13 Low Cloud Product GOM/Caribbean Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2227. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2226. SQUAWK
Quoting DestinJeff:
I like to do first-page Google results research, and what I found is remarkable concerning hurricane actvity over the last 100 years.

As it happens, and according to this equally as remarkable graphic, hurricanes and tropical storms are LESS LIKELY to form in June and July. This of course in direct contradiction to what many would desire, but The Chart doesn't lie.

Behold:



(used with expressed, written consent of Major League Baseball)


Ya know how to put them in their place DJ! Good job!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting muddertracker:


I agree with ya...storms do tend to get their act together in this area...I wonder why?
This is the area of the Cayman Trench. Waters are extrememly deep and warm.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
From Wiki; Andrew in 1992 might be a better example of RI:

Andrew attained hurricane status early on August 22 about 650 miles (1,050 km) east-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas.[1] The hurricane accelerated as it tracked due westward into an area of very favorable conditions, and late on August 22 began rapidly intensifying; in a 24 hour period the pressure dropped 47 millibars (1.4 inHg) to a minimum pressure of 922 millibars (27.2 inHg).[1] On August 23 Andrew attained Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and at 1800 UTC that day it reached peak winds of 175 miles per hour (282 km/h) while located a short distance off Eleuthera island.[5]

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Suface Low might be trying to develop in the Western side of the Blob!


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:


Communism

bahahahha...yeah...that explains everything...but seriously, though...is it heat content or b/c westerlies die down in this area? Pressures tend to lower in this area? Why?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
Quoting DestinJeff:


That satellite is so vain.

It probably thinks this site is about him...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
Quoting stormpetrol:
90L is nearing a location that is known for RI, take a deep breath, got a feeling 90L will give us a bit of a surprise!


I agree with ya...storms do tend to get their act together in this area...I wonder why?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350

Viewing: 2261 - 2211

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.