July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting DestinJeff:
My way or the Safeway.

Are they still in business?


No they close after "My way or the highway opened" who then merged with "Stubborn as a mule inc."
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Quoting BahaHurican:


No, not that far north IMO.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks. I saw it on IR shortwave which is what I was trying to post before. I was wondering if that is where he sees it too. You can see it clearly on the link you posted and a good blow up of convection right over the spin.


especially the last few frames hey?
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Link

check out the area around 15n 66w
Thanks. I saw it on IR shortwave which is what I was trying to post before. I was wondering if that is where he sees it too. You can see it clearly on the link you posted and a good blow up of convection right over the spin.
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Yep! And selling cashews by the crate...


Getting crazy in Clearwater, STAY SAFE!
Quoting DestinJeff:
My way or the Safeway.

Are they still in business?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where ?


Link

check out the area around 15n 66w, could just be outflow appearing like its starting to spin up a bit though
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get a system like this they usually develop eventually
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F5 F5 F5 F5....

Why is it taking so long to finish the TWD?
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Quoting yoboi:


i will consider it..........

i might consider that............
I just raised your GCS back to a 15.

JK
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Hurrykane:
Looks as if 9OL may be reforming a "center"
Where ?
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498. DVG
If 90l is organizing, it might be forming a circulation near 68 17.
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Quoting Hurrykane:
Looks as if 9OL may be reforming a "center"


Where do you see that reformation? It will be important the position because it may avoid the high mountains of Hispanola.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hmmm. Corpus...

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
CONTINUES THE REIGN OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MOST OF
THE UNITED STATES. WITH THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH GREATER 1000-500MB THICKNESS MID WEEK...INCREASED
HIGHS A BIT...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. OVERALL...BASICALLY A PERSISTENT
FORECAST. THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE
FORECAST MODELS KEEP AN OPEN WAVE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME SHIFTING EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE IN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.



im in corpus...sure could use an invest come our way..or a good looking depression..maybe a lower-end storm but nothing more..
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H23, what do you make of the twin vortex signatures 90L has had for a couple days? I was wondering a) what was causing it and b) whether that is having a negative influence on development...
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DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AS
WELL AS THE INTERACTION OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH THE LAND MASSES OF
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NEVERTHELESS...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUNDAY.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23642
Boy, am I glad those big islands are in the way, and boy, am I hoping this system doesn't "feel a trough" and make a beeline for the Bahamas... the water out there is hot enough to encourage just about anything to spin up...
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Vorticity from that wave in the Eastern Atlantic is quite impressive...Will need to watch it, since it will follow in the foot steps of 90L.

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Quoting Grothar:
It is starting a very little bit of outflow for the first time and little bit more consolidation.



Animation link:

Link


Development chances look minimal till it reaches the western gulf were things could get a little interesting.
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I'm going to say quite frankly I think 90L is starting to ventilate a bit, I'm no expert I don't see land interaction, the main core of this system will move well south of Haiti/DR, I expect 90L will be much more organized in the morning and well on its way to becoming a TD/TS, yup I'm going out on limb, hope it isn't rotten and crows flying over :)
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Quoting Hurrykane:


That'll change.
True, but I'll take it as long as possible. To put it another way, I think we would have been well on our way to a notable July major if 90L hadn't been flying along at 20+ mph the whole way....
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Quoting DestinJeff:


No, BE SAFE!


Uh-Uh, GET SAFE!
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If 90L wasn't such a speed bug our story might be quite different right now. The strength of that high might be one of the saving factors this season.... has to be disruptive to formation.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... that's pretty excellent. I think I can understand the excitement of chasing, though I doubt I could do it. The day we had the tornado here, I was across the island, but on a hill, which gave a very clear view of the tornado as it retracted. Of course, I didn't have my camera with me that day.... lol

That was enough 'exotic' weather for me....


haha yeah, figures right? I personally do not have many pics or videos because most of the time I was manning the camera for live streaming, navigating, and pouring over the radar data lol

Quoting Grothar:


12 in one day? I always wanted to ask. Who gets to say "We've got debris" in your group?


haha not sure who would get those honors
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Getting crazy in Clearwater, STAY SAFE!
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ir2. html
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477. IKE

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TWO's out. I'm waiting on the TWD.
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90L/INV/XX
MARK
17.79N/68.87W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
...BRINGING *ABUNDANT* ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THISTIMEFRAME SHIFTING EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
--------------
Gives me flutters to see it in writing! Thank you.
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473. yoboi
Quoting FrankZapper:
I am just saying tone back on the "I am a surgeon" stuff. Maybe I am a MD from LSU/Charity too but I never use that in publc or on the blog to impress. I just don't want to see anyone end up(ego wise) like that NS in NOLA who has the big "Institute".


i will consider it..........
Quoting FrankZapper:
I am just saying tone back on the "I am a surgeon" stuff. Maybe I am a MD from LSU/Charity too but I never use that in publc or on the blog to impress. I just don't want to see anyone end up(ego wise) like that NS in NOLA who has the big "Institute".


i might consider that............
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha I have 2 bottles left, decided to keep them



thats pretty cool!

yeah, went to 16 states, 14,000 miles. what a year right? Got to witness 20 tornadoes. the biggest chase I had this year was the Mapleton, Iowa day. Saw 12 that day and night, was incredible.


12 in one day? I always wanted to ask. Who gets to say "We've got debris" in your group?
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha I have 2 bottles left, decided to keep them



thats pretty cool!

yeah, went to 16 states, 14,000 miles. what a year right? Got to witness 20 tornadoes. the biggest chase I had this year was the Mapleton, Iowa day. Saw 12 that day and night, was incredible.
Wow... that's pretty excellent. I think I can understand the excitement of chasing, though I doubt I could do it. The day we had the tornado here, I was across the island, but on a hill, which gave a very clear view of the tornado as it retracted. Of course, I didn't have my camera with me that day.... lol

That was enough 'exotic' weather for me....
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Quoting DestinJeff:


One per season, not year. I'm keeping my mulligan for now, though, thanks.

There is a hellacious par 5 in mid September I might need it for.


You wouldn't mean Sept 10? LOL
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It is starting a very little bit of outflow for the first time and little bit more consolidation.



Animation link:

Link
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On the animal forecasting, the doc had an excellent blog post a couple of years ago about using animal behaviour as a forecast tool...
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Quoting Grothar:


I get the Urge every now and then. Any cans left?


haha I have 2 bottles left, decided to keep them

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey Tdude... not surprised u have been so busy. Did u get to chase any "big ones"? We actually had a tornado onshore here in New Providence last month... lucky it was relatively minor...


thats pretty cool!

yeah, went to 16 states, 14,000 miles. what a year right? Got to witness 20 tornadoes. the biggest chase I had this year was the Mapleton, Iowa day. Saw 12 that day and night, was incredible.
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Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis



Currently, this product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.

The five datasets currently used are the ASCAT scatterometer, which is adjusted upward to 700 hPa in the same manner as the surface winds are adjusted downward, feature track winds in the mid-levels from the operational satellite centers, 2-d flight-level winds estimated from infrared imagery (see Mueller et al 2006 ) and 2-d winds created from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)- derived height fields and solving the non-linear balance equations as described in Bessho et al (2006). Past analyses also made use of the QuickSCAT scatterometer (i.e., prior to November 2009), but this satellite is no longer producing observations of surface vector winds.

Each of the input data are shown in subpanels following the analysis (i.e., storm-relative). Shown are AMSU winds, Cloud-drift/IR/WV winds, IR-proxy winds and Scatterometer winds; QuikSCAT, when available for past analyses (BLUE) and ASCAT (RED). All input data in these panels has been reduced to a 10-m land or oceanic exposure depending on the location (i.e., non-surface data has been reduced to a 10-m exposure).

How good are the wind estimates? Here is the verification based upon 2007 data . These statistics were based on 1) H*Wind data when available and 2) best track wind radii estimates from NHC. In interpreting the wind radii verification it is important to not that the zero wind radii are included in the verification, which both skews and inflates the MAE verification statistics. Note however detection is improved over climatology provided by Knaff et al. (2007).
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Quoting tornadodude:


gross! haha sounds like summer tho, never gets old.... right? :p



hey hey! yeah still hanging, you? ive been great, super busy chasing this year, but overall pretty good
Hey Tdude... not surprised u have been so busy. Did u get to chase any "big ones"? We actually had a tornado onshore here in New Providence last month... lucky it was relatively minor...
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Quoting tornadodude:


gross! haha sounds like summer tho, never gets old.... right? :p



hey hey! yeah still hanging, you? ive been great, super busy chasing this year, but overall pretty good


I get the Urge every now and then. Any cans left?
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New TWOAT still 10%.
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Coming out of lurking just to ask if "Cricket Caster" is a new one on the list:-)


Quoting yoboi:


we not to worried about this storm i am from cameron la and we have been in a long drought all summer until the past week lately most stors have been coming off the GOM from west to east and the crickets have been migrating north by the hundreds just like before a few weeks of landfall like hurricane rita and hurricane ike someone should conduct a study with crickets and hurricanes i will be shooting a video soon showing the cricket migration any thoughts???
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.