July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting alfabob:
I think the main issue with 90L is that it was moving at 25-30kts to begin with, difficult to get westward winds on top of that; but relative to the motion, circulation has been clearly evident. Still has a lot of room if it is hanging out in the moisture further to the south. Also..this is nearly consistent


Definitely agree about the forward speed. I noticed it last night.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20611
TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECTED US CITIES (7/22 HIGHS IN PARENTHESES)

WICHITA FALLS, TX: 106 (104) [32nd consecutive day at or above 100]
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK: 101 (100)
AMARILLO, TX: 99 (100)
KANSAS CITY, MO: 103 (102)
ST. LOUIS, MO: 100 (101)
NEW YORK, NY: 100 (104)
NEWARK, NJ: 102 (108)
PHILADELPHIA, PA: 101 (103)
BALTIMORE, MD: 103 (108)
WASHINGTON, DC: 102 (102)
RICHMOND, VA: 101 (102)
RALEIGH, NC: 103 (103)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
90L has never had a center..........
bingo!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
on top of that i think many are still liveing in tent city
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Upper level divergence over hispaniola. Check out the smorgasboard here.
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Quoting blsealevel:


The convection is for sure but look just South East of the storms a couple degrees
Those folks are in for some major rains about right now anyways.



this what they dont neeed
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Quoting stormpetrol:
This 90L is going surprise many!
It's July. Waves usually fizz in July and 90L is no exception.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Tazmanian:
it this looks like the hole 90L is now moveing overe HISPANIOLA


The convection is for sure but look just South East of the storms a couple degrees
Those folks are in for some major rains about right now anyways.
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If the centre does in fact move over Hispaniola, tomorrow a.m. 90L will be pretty much where the ECWMF was placing it some days ago when we first started speculating about it....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
I'll just say this about 90L, I know a troublemaker when I see one and this has all the makings of one!G/nite, ck in tomorrow !
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
90L has never had a center..........
I think the problem has been more one of competing circulations...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
This 90L is going surprise many!
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it this looks like the hole 90L is now moveing overe HISPANIOLA
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Quoting BahaHurican:
This is a really a vigorous wave to be nothing.

I agree, not trying to be a downcaster or anything but this wave is having so much trouble getting organized. Maybe a TS in the Gulf at best. Plus there's too much land. If this was farther south, different story.
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16N/67W looks to be the main core of 90L.
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Check it out
Seems odd to me that the models are so close that far out for a weak storm that seems to be growing

Link
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no disasters of recent? a different kind. the heat wave of 2011.
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The old center may not be reborn...it's no longer on the tropical wave axis, which is now to the northwest. That would be another place to look for a new center of low pressure later on.
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This is a really a vigorous wave to be nothing.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
90L has never had a center..........
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Quoting Hurrykane:


Yeah, right there! (:
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Quoting Hurrykane:
Looks as if 9OL may be reforming a "center"
Where do you think it's reforming at?
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Testing:
my wx account - passwords - and community standards policy.

Oh... and greetings to all in the group who do, or don't want to, remember last year.
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Quoting Hurrykane:
DVORAK IR LOOP 90L
Link
It looks like around 67W/16N but help me put please.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Not sure what u r looking at, but 17 / 67 is not that far from the centre of the image... and definitely shown... [shrugs] I was looking more at the convection, frankly.


Oops...Meant 65-66W/15-16N. To make it simpler, in the convection right dead center in this image.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
LOL. The way it looked last night I thought for sure I would get up this morning to at least a TS.



we will see how the evening/night treats it....I have been following these things for many years and learned a lot from this blog though i usually just lurk..... seen a lot better looking systems than this fizzle out at night only to return during daylight hours will watch to see if the convection will hold tonight
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Sunrise, sunset
Sunrise, sunset
Swiftly fly the years
One season following another
Laden with happiness and tears


Lol who wrote that? Lyric of a band I like is really similar.

Sunrise, sunset.
Sunrise, sunset.
Swiftly go the days.
Sunrise, sunset.
You wake up, then you undress.
It always is the same.
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C'mon, Jeff; stop trying to wish this thing over on my side of the Antilles.... it's happy where it is, I'm sure....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
the navy site thinks that this is now 90L


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pre he might go to a sleep again. nothing i can hang my hat on yet. max.. heat potential for atlantic is the first of sept i believe??
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Try 66W/15-17N IMO

67/17 isn't that far north.
Not sure what u r looking at, but 17 / 67 is not that far from the centre of the image... and definitely shown... [shrugs] I was looking more at the convection, frankly.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
Quoting DestinJeff:
Sun is setting on pre-Don.

So sad.


Sunrise, sunset
Sunrise, sunset
Swiftly fly the years
One season following another
Laden with happiness and tears
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


will have to watch it for sure....to me the spin we are seeing looks like its in the mid to upper levels the lower level flow looks from se to nw
LOL. The way it looked last night I thought for sure I would get up this morning to at least a TS.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yep. I don't know how strong this will get but I have been watching it throughout the day and if it continues the way it has today I really think we will see development before it reaches us.


will have to watch it for sure....to me the spin we are seeing looks like its in the mid to upper levels the lower level flow looks from se to nw
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Twx13, I thought somebody said 17/67...


Try 66W/15-17N IMO

67/17 isn't that far north.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Twx13, I thought somebody said 17/67...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


especially the last few frames hey?
Yep. I don't know how strong this will get but I have been watching it throughout the day and if it continues the way it has today I really think we will see development before it reaches us.
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WV, same time.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22140
Quoting DestinJeff:
My way or the Safeway.

Are they still in business?


No they close after "My way or the highway opened" who then merged with "Stubborn as a mule inc."
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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