July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, you only just posted it five hundred times. Wind shear isn't the problem...It's the subsidence and land interaction that will make development hard for 90L before it reaches the western Caribbean.
LOL!
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Yes, I do know what the gulfstream is. And it is what if - you asked a hypothetical question.


Point is:

Florida/Bahamas/Northern Carribean/Gulf are Prone to get hit by Hurricanes in an ENSO Year....and SST'S are Conducive for Supporting a Major Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.

As much as i would like to see the All the Hurricanes go out to sea... Not all of them will go out to Sea... and no matter how much i pray or hope... Some in the Atlantic Basin will get hit this year.
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Quoting blsealevel:


thats a good observation, Wonder which past storm did close to the same thing?
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

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Quoting Hurrykane:


It's hard to tell right now...if they had a floater on it, IR2 Shortwave would tell us. When I refer to center, I'm not speaking of a closed circulation, but the rotation seems to want to be consolidating over Hispaniloa.
Gotcha. Thanks for the input.
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Quoting neutralenso:

Will shear be decreasing for 90L in the next couple of days and whats causing 90L not to crank up?



wind shear is vary low for 90L right now about 5 too 20kt and it stays like that all the long it path the olny thing thats keeping 90L for doing any thing is called land
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Quoting neutralenso:

Will shear be decreasing for 90L in the next couple of days and whats causing 90L not to crank up?


1.) Shear isn't a problem.

2.) Subsidence, land interaction
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Its not what if... Do you know what the Gulfstream is?


Yes, I do know what the gulfstream is. And it is what if - you asked a hypothetical question.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


What if, what if, what if.


Its not what if... Do you know what the Gulfstream is?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The GFDL was Category 2, the HWRF was Category 1.


Ok, thanks. Could someone post the 18z model runs?
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all so if 90L can get a low going and the wind shear stays and low we got a nic big loop eddy it can go overe wish would realy help this thing out
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


I may be mistaken, but didn't the GFDL and HWRF models take 90L to category 2 at the 12z run?


The GFDL was Category 2, the HWRF was Category 1.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
HPC thinks Texas maybe looking at some moisture

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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Baha...

What happens if this Consolidates North of the Islands?

Steering heads it into our direction....

Dont like that Hot Hot Gulf Stream Water


What if, what if, what if.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, ASCAT/WindSAT aren't having problems. There is no circulation associated with 90L, and until it gets one, it is going to struggle to development. However...there is hope. 95% of the intensity models bring 90L up to moderate/strong TS strength within the next week or so.


I may be mistaken, but didn't the GFDL and HWRF models take 90L to category 2 at the 12z run?
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Quoting Grothar:



Does this like like the upper clouds to the east are moving more NW in this animation? This might change the models a bit

Link


I'm not sure what you mean. I see decent outflow to the north of the system. The upper low over the western Caribbean is providing excellent ventilation for 90L. This overall setup of an upper low backing westward ahead of a tropical wave is a situation where we should always watch for possible development.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
If the centre does in fact move over Hispaniola, tomorrow a.m. 90L will be pretty much where the ECWMF was placing it some days ago when we first started speculating about it....


Baha...

What happens if this Consolidates North of the Islands?

Steering heads it into our direction....

Dont like that Hot Hot Gulf Stream Water
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Point taken: slow development is possible.



will this have too watch it and see how it gos
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Quoting alfabob:

Data has been missing in the more interesting regions for a few runs now (passes missing, patches of data gone, ect). Maybe windsat/ascat is having a bad day.


No, ASCAT/WindSAT aren't having problems. There is no well-defined circulation associated with 90L, and until it gets one, it is going to struggle to consolidate. However...there is hope. 95% of the intensity models bring 90L up to moderate/strong TS strength within the next week or so.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting alfabob:
I think the main issue with 90L is that it was moving at 25-30kts to begin with, difficult to get westward winds on top of that; but relative to the motion, circulation has been clearly evident. Still has a lot of room if it is hanging out in the moisture further to the south. Also..this is nearly consistent


thats a good observation, Wonder which past storm did close to the same thing?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't see any rotation under the deepest convection, so as of now I don't think the center is reforming like some were suggesting.

In short, this thing is one disorganized mess.



yup once this get a way from land wish sould be tonight the way thing are moveing and with the wind shear low and not has high has last night 90L may go nuts
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Quoting Tazmanian:



ture but do you re call last nigth at this time wind shear was a little higher like 30 too 40kt but it has lower a lot today


Point taken: slow development is possible.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, you only just posted it five hundred times. Wind shear isn't the problem...It's the subsidence and land interaction that will make development hard for 90L before it reaches the western Caribbean.



ture but do you re call last nigth at this time wind shear was a little higher like 30 too 40kt but it has lower a lot today
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Quoting alfabob:

(I don't see any real structure under the new convection, so difficult to tell where and if it will begin to rebuild).


I don't see any rotation under the deepest convection, so as of now I don't think the center is reforming like some were suggesting.

In short, this thing is one disorganized mess.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20571
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, you only just posted it five hundred times. Wind shear isn't the problem...It's the subsidence and land interaction that will make development hard for 90L before it reaches the western Caribbean.


I was actually just about to say that... :)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Was talking about this earlier.

Still think the multi-vortices had a negative impact...


Possibly.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




have you looked at the new wind shear map i posted? wind shear has got in better for 90L now its vary low about 5-20kt


Yes, you only just posted it five hundred times. Wind shear isn't the problem...It's the subsidence and land interaction that will make development hard for 90L before it reaches the western Caribbean.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting Tazmanian:



hmmm thats not storm lol


Here is Storm's website:Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
90L still has a LONG way to go before becoming anything...



75W and to the east.




have you looked at the new wind shear map i posted? wind shear has got in better for 90L now its vary low about 5-20kt
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Looking at the MIMIC TPW, the wave was a nice round glob with obvious turning before reaching the Antilles. When it reaches the Antilles the glob stretches out in an west-east direction--like Levi mentioned in a post about the Caribbean grave yard of speed divergence--and the turning seems to be at the south east portion of the stretched glob of moist air. The glob zooms all the way to eastern Cuba while the main rotation is still in the eastern Caribbean.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Definitely agree about the forward speed. I noticed it last night.
Was talking about this earlier.

Still think the multi-vortices had a negative impact...
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wind shear is now vary low for 90L
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90L still has a LONG way to go before becoming anything...



75W and to the weast is where we need to watch for development.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
90L now has a better ch wind shear has drop big time and now down too about 5-20kt all a long its path the olny thing now it needs too do it move a way from land


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Quoting Levi32:
The old center may not be reborn...it's no longer on the tropical wave axis, which is now to the northwest. That would be another place to look for a new center of low pressure later on.



Does this like like the upper clouds to the east are moving more NW in this animation? This might change the models a bit

Link
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Quoting palmbaywhoo:


Hey Storm How have you been? How is the new site going?



hmmm thats not storm lol
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Quoting Hurrykane:


It's hard to tell right now...if they had a floater on it, IR2 Shortwave would tell us. When I refer to center, I'm not speaking of a closed circulation, but the rotation seems to want to be consolidating over Hispaniloa.


Hey Storm How have you been? How is the new site going?
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


There have been periods of a broad circulation and folks speculating about a "possible" center looking at satt loops or bursts of convection and trying to get a handle on where pressure might be falling but never a well defined "center" of circulation if you want to get technical........
I agree with you, not even sure you could truly ever claim it had a "center" of lower pressure.
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new wind shear map update is now out it looks like 90L will have 5-20kt of wind shear all a long its path so wind shear has fallin

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Quoting FrankZapper:
It's July. Waves usually fizz in July and 90L is no exception.


Agreed! They usually fizzle 85-90% of time whether its June to November!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Definitely agree about the forward speed. I noticed it last night.



at lest with it foword speed it will not have a lot of time overe there
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Quoting hunkerdown:
bingo!


There have been periods of a broad circulation and folks speculating about a "possible" center looking at satt loops or bursts of convection and trying to get a handle on where pressure might be falling but never a well defined "center" of circulation if you want to get technical........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9132
Quoting alfabob:
I think the main issue with 90L is that it was moving at 25-30kts to begin with, difficult to get westward winds on top of that; but relative to the motion, circulation has been clearly evident. Still has a lot of room if it is hanging out in the moisture further to the south. Also..this is nearly consistent


Definitely agree about the forward speed. I noticed it last night.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20571

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.