July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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661. 7544
Quoting hotrods:
I remember when StormW was on here, he use to say watch the way the cloud tops where moving, it looks like there moving in the direction of the SE Bahamas. Which would be in a NW direction, i could be wrong though, just trying to learn and observe.


agree it looks like its heading for the bahammas and might get relocated abit north imo whatever it is its becoming larger size
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Quoting hotrods:
I remember when StormW was on here, he use to say watch the way the cloud tops where moving, it looks like there moving in the direction of the SE Bahamas. Which would be in a NW direction, i could be wrong though, just trying to learn and observe.


High Pressure to the NE will drive 90L on W-WNW course! Just my opinion of course!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
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bad time of the yr to get a potential cyclone over the gulf
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Just checking back in nearly everyone is talking about land interaction, the main core of 90L will stay off land , this will aid in development, 90L as I said earlier today is well on its way to become Don and our first Atlantic Hurricane of the 2011 Season!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
I remember when StormW was on here, he use to say watch the way the cloud tops where moving, it looks like there moving in the direction of the SE Bahamas. Which would be in a NW direction, i could be wrong though, just trying to learn and observe.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Are we there yet?



dont make me turn this care a round
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Quoting snotly:
any comments, realistic explanation... caused by weather?



Interesting. Would love to have a geologist or someone educated in the field weigh in on this.

From Wiki:
Pisgah Crater, or Pisgah Volcano, is a young volcanic cinder cone rising above a lava plain in the Mojave Desert, between Barstow and Needles, California in San Bernardino County, California. The volcanic peak is around 2.5 miles (4.0 km) south of historic U.S. Route 66-National Old Trails Highway and of Interstate 40, and southeast the town of Ludlow.
Link

On Google Earth.
Link
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Looking at the models, current conditions, and charts, this is what I see.

First of all, as everyone has stated, wind shear is not an issue with this storm.

Secondly, since it's just a strong tropical wave without a center, it is very possible that this system forms an area of low pressure south or north of the islands. Yes, land interaction can disrupt cyclone formation, but if the storms decide to consolidate further south, then land interaction might not be a huge issue. I've seen this happen before, so it's very possible.

Note: Caribbean water temperatures are hot, hot, hot. Don't forget that.

I'm really disappointed in the GFS model because it really doesn't show this tropical wave very well in the model runs. NAM has picked this out for awhile, and GFDL is on board with something. Also, NOGAPS doesn't show anything, which could be a positive sign since NOGAPS is...well, NOGAPS.

I've seen worse waves develop into something, and this is a very impressive tropical wave in my opinion.

We'll see what happens, but I have a gut feeling that this will be "Don". I don't expect this thing to start developing until Sunday night the earliest.





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649. 7544
they might relocate the center further north on this one and it looks like 90l wants to start moving nw soon . might be a tricky one to call
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Quoting alfabob:
Ok reanalyzed the situation, 15.8N, 66.3W; outflow beginning to develop around it. If it persists, it will be going west, far west; which has already been pointed out. Doesn't even need to develop rapidly at this point, has plenty of time on that path.

But the interaction with the land mass of DR can affect its progress?
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:



close to where we were looking earlier though the convection in that area has died out a bit over the last few hours
I think it is trying to decide what it wants to do :)
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FYI...Grothar has made his first blog...and it's a good-un..:)
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The closest official NWS station to my house (~7 miles) recorded an all time high temperature yesterday that was set ironically enough on the same date in 1926. Location about 20-30 miles north of Boston.

103 degrees: Record high in Merrimack Valley
It reached 103 degrees at Lawrence Municipal Airport yesterday, breaking the previous record high temperature for the Merrimack Valley by one degree.

The previous record of 102 was set on the same date in 1926, according to Haverhill native Matt Noyes, a New England Cable News meteorologist.

"As best I can tell, this does go down as the hottest temperature of all time — on record — at the Lawrence airport," Noyes said.
Link
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Anyone notice the big increase in vorticity ?



close to where we were looking earlier though the convection in that area has died out a bit over the last few hours
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any comments, realistic explanation... caused by weather?

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Anyone notice the big increase in vorticity ?
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I've never heard of a wave undergoing RI, unless maybe what Wilma did.


Even Wilma did not, as it was a depression (operationally) for six advisories.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
I've never heard of a wave undergoing RI, unless maybe what Wilma did.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
620. There's been rapid intensification of systems in the area between Cuba, the Keys, and The Bahamas.


But not with systems that lack inner cores.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Exactly, Thanks
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620. There's been rapid intensification of systems in the area between Cuba, the Keys, and The Bahamas.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
Quoting blsealevel:
Dont they tend to go just to the south track of the models? thought i saw that some where a few years back


You mean the NHC? I've seen them go south of them, down the middle, or to the right. It depends entirely on the ambient circumstances.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Dont they tend to go just to the south track of the models? thought i saw that some where a few years back
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Where's 90L's real center? Because all I see is a big crapload of convection.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
For good or ill, something is happening with 90L. It's well past 0100zulu and we're stilll waiting for the 1200zulu ATCF numbers...
...which I like to imagine is them folks having a knock-down drag-out about what that something is. Ain't like there'd be a need for such a long delay ifn they all agreed on the what.
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90L will be interacting with Cuba after Hispaniola finishes with it. The best of storms in ideal conditions often don't survive that, although a few like Georges do.
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Regardless of what happens with 90L, the area is moistening up.
LinkWVLoop
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626. 7544
just got back look at visable is that 90l ????? if so whats happening to it
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Every single model brings 90L up to TD status+



Let's what the 00z models have, but they have not come out yet.
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Quoting Grothar:


I mean, does it appear this system is moving more WNW than previously forecast? I still cannot get a fix on the center, so the main convection doesn't really mean that much as far as the models are concerned. Could this current setting indicate that if the systems develops more, the models might be further North than before?


How developed it is isn't going to play much of a role in its track at this point. Everything right now hinges entirely on where the low center forms. It has a certain length of wave axis upon which it could form, and where it decides to form on that axis (if it forms) will decide what its trajectory is along the big island chain, whether it be over them or just south of them.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's useless trying to predict rapid intensification anyway unless the process is ongoing or imminent. We simply do not know enough yet.

I am still sticking with my prediction I made yesterday, though: that this will not develop appreciably until reaching the western Caribbean in a few days.


Agreed.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting Patrap:








Thats the one!
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.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The only area where I could see rapid intensification take place is in the Western Caribbean, but if it isn't a system by then, it probably wont ever undergo rapid intensification.


It's useless trying to predict rapid intensification anyway unless the process is ongoing or imminent. We simply do not know enough yet.

I am still sticking with my prediction I made yesterday, though: that this will not develop appreciably until reaching the western Caribbean in a few days.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Every single model brings 90L up to TD status+

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The only area where I could see rapid intensification take place is in the Western Caribbean, but if it isn't a system by then, it probably wont ever undergo rapid intensification.



or when it moves overe the loop eddy or wish evere comes 1st
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Quoting redwagon:


Thank's
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Quoting KoritheMan:


For 90L to actually pose an especially dangerous threat to south Florida (by that I mean Category 2 and beyond), it'd actually have to have reason to rapidly intensify, which as of now it doesn't.


The only area where I could see rapid intensification take place is in the Western Caribbean, but if it isn't a system by then, it probably wont ever undergo rapid intensification.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
havn't been on all day long.But Isee that most people are in agreement that once 90L gets to the Gulf it will need to be moniterd closley.And let's not forget how fast storms can "blow up" if ya will in the Gulf.
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Quoting Levi32:


I'm not sure what you mean. I see decent outflow to the north of the system. The upper low over the western Caribbean is providing excellent ventilation for 90L. This overall setup of an upper low backing westward ahead of a tropical wave is a situation where we should always watch for possible development.


I mean, does it appear this system is moving more WNW than previously forecast? I still cannot get a fix on the center, so the main convection doesn't really mean that much as far as the models are concerned. Could this current setting indicate that if the systems develops more, the models might be further North than before?
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Quoting MeterologyStudent56:


Its not what if... Do you know what the Gulfstream is?


For 90L to actually pose an especially dangerous threat to south Florida (by that I mean Category 2 and beyond), it'd actually have to have reason to rapidly intensify, which as of now it doesn't.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, you only just posted it five hundred times. Wind shear isn't the problem...It's the subsidence and land interaction that will make development hard for 90L before it reaches the western Caribbean.
LOL!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.