July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 711 - 661

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Quoting KoritheMan:


I think he meant more along the lines of making it difficult to track. After all, if it doesn't show up well in the global model fields (such as was the case with Bret), then it becomes harder to forecast.
OK,my mistake.Kori to the rescue!

I'm also happy ECM doesn't develop it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, that got all messed up. Re: "Volcano", please refer yourselves to the USGS website, specifically the Volcano page. Look at the Active Alerts. Engage your powers of deduction. Refrain from wasting any more posts on this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 240242
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011

THE NOAA AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS
RELEASED...BUT NOTHING AT THE SURFACE ANY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
OBSERVED. SINCE THAT TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED. BASED ON THE
ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS SINCE THE TIME OF THE AIRCRAFT MISSION...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. WITH THE CYCLONE OVER 23C
WATER AND HEADING FOR EVEN COLDER WATER...A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN IS
FORECAST.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/10. THIS
IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUIDANCE IS
ALSO A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE MID- AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING IN
A DAY OR SO...WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS TURNING WESTWARD AND THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX MOVING TOWARD THE COAST...BUT THAT SEPARATION
MIGHT BE OCCURRING NOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND STILL CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF
MEAN. THE REGIONAL MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE COAST
THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT EVEN IF THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE
WILL BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF DORA BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 22.5N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 23.3N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/1200Z 25.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z 28.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The structure of 90L is improving tonight as the two pieces come together. While convection is diminishing for now, I believe we will see a new burst of convection form on top of what appears to be a developing low near 70W. Wind shear is also decreasing further west because the ULL is moving west. If the low stays south of the Islands, like it appears to be doing, I would say chances of this becoming our 4th Depression are much higher then what the officials are saying. Can't always depend on the models.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting islander101010:
bad time of the yr to get a potential cyclone over the gulf

yeah, especially since we haven't had rain here in TX to cool off the waters in our area, although I'm not sure what the Gulf temps are right now. I usually pay more attention to this at this time of year, but I figure what happens happens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
nice tropical wave at 45 west


That is just ITCZ convection. There is no tropical wave at 45W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
Volcanic eruption? LMAO.


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
11 invests
3 storms
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2532
Will be back in the morning. Not much is going to happen this evening :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
700. beell
Quoting IceCoast:


Also, to me it doesn't really look like a volcanic eruption. Think that guy may be full of it. Couldn't see it on Sat imagery either.




Curious for sure:
Composite at a lower elevation angle.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Taz pin-hole eye alert within next 3 weeks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
Volcanic eruption? LMAO.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyway, looks like the precipitation over Hispaniola doesn't want to cross that central mountain range between DR and Haiti...

Also noticed on the vorticity map someone posted earlier that the NWly portion of the wave's vorticity seems to have faded somewhat while the SE area seems to have increased in vorticity. I have a feeling if 90L ever pulls that vanguard of vorticity and Tstorms into a centre, we'll finally see development.

Right now, looking like Inagua and the TCI will get some rain starting later tonight...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting Tazmanian:
90L is olny a wave at this time i think 90L was froming a low or it had a low but when the high wind shear hit it last night the low open up in too a wave and that is what 90L is now


I agree. Surface observations across the islands supported a developing low this time yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
680 and 681

Before the update I gave 90L 10%. That was the number the NHC gave it.

The rotation at the 5000 foot level has not translated down to the surface but might do so in time IF the wave axis can avoid Hispaniola. I never look for development of weak waves in the Caribbean until they pass 75W. With this one I think the odds for development in the Caribbean are low. If it can stay close to or South of Jamaica then perhaps it might stand a chance in the NW Caribbean.

For now, the cloud tops in the convection are warming which is a sign of weakening. There may be flare ups over time, like early tomorrow morning, but I do not see this feature as a short term threat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90L is olny a wave at this time i think 90L was froming a low or it had a low but when the high wind shear hit it last night the low open up in too a wave and that is what 90L is now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting IceCoast:

The user asked a question in regards to a video he saw. I get your gig on the blog with all the humor and doom etc, but you come off as a ....(insert own word) with comments like that.


(perspicacious individual?) (pan-dimensional being of liquid helium metabolism?) Who is going to put buffoon in parentheses in regards to themselves, taking in to account the comment to which you object? I find it humorous that the video implies a conspiratorial "blocking of feeds," as it were. If there is a lack of continuity in supporting evidence for a geological- specifically volcanic- event, I would take that as substantial evidence that it is not in fact a serious, if even actual, event. The USGS would be all over it. USGS Volcano Alerts. As you can see, they are not; there is no event.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Testing...radial velocity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Radar blob" appears to have a source in early slides, but now only rotates counterclockwise. Does not disappear when clutter = off and shows up on the Sant Ana mountain radar, but not Las Vegas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
come on pepps this thing is blowing up in size so u all are missing something shear is on the 10 15 range whats causing this blob to look like this ?


Divergence associated with an upper low over the western Caribbean. Divergence is an excellent source of convection, but it is hardly the determining factor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
I don't want to sound like a sourpuss, but when I hear statements like "I'm really disappointed in the GFS model because it really doesn't show this tropical wave very well in the model runs." I get a little upset. I am overjoyed when the models don't develop 90L because it is now in a position that if it does become a hurricane (highly unlikely), it would almost certainly cause loss of life and/or property somewhere. I realize however that Mother Nature does not dance to the tune of anyone's wishes thankfully.


I think he meant more along the lines of making it difficult to track. After all, if it doesn't show up well in the global model fields (such as was the case with Bret), then it becomes harder to forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
687. 7544
come on pepps this thing is blowing up in size so u all are missing something shear is on the 10 15 range whats causing this blob to look like this ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

Surface pressure near the area of strongest 850 mb vorticity is close to1016 mbs . There is little chance of 90L developing any time soon.


Evening kman. Agree strongly. No development until it reaches the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

Hard to tell. Could be wildfire. And there's a lot of military training in that general area, Twentynine Palms and Fort Irwin being the largest.

I get that sometimes certain entities will hide things for different reasons. But sometimes an absence of news is simply an absence of news. You know?


I also noticed the military bases when looking around in google earth. BTW neo here is another one you can add to your list of all time temps being broke with this heat wave, this one dating back to 1926. ~7 mies from my house if you missed it earlier.

103 degrees: Record high in Merrimack Valley
It reached 103 degrees at Lawrence Municipal Airport yesterday, breaking the previous record high temperature for the Merrimack Valley by one degree.

The previous record of 102 was set on the same date in 1926, according to Haverhill native Matt Noyes, a New England Cable News meteorologist.

"As best I can tell, this does go down as the hottest temperature of all time — on record — at the Lawrence airport," Noyes said.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's my point. The fact that the storm isn't in the WCar is not BY ITSELF an inhibitor to rapid intensification. The problem with this system since it hit the Antilles [well, really 50W] is that it hasn't been able to consolidate a central core; no core = nothing to rapidly intensify in the first place.


Ah, okay. I agree in that case. But I wasn't saying that storms could not rapidly intensify in the area that the other poster specified. I was merely saying that as of now, conditions are not supportive of rapid intensification.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would put the center at 16.3N 65.5W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't want to sound like a sourpuss, but when I hear statements like "I'm really disappointed in the GFS model because it really doesn't show this tropical wave very well in the model runs." I get a little upset. I am overjoyed when the models don't develop 90L because it is now in a position that if it does become a hurricane (highly unlikely), it would almost certainly cause loss of life and/or property somewhere. I realize however that Mother Nature does not dance to the tune of anyone's wishes thankfully.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

Surface pressure near the area of strongest 850 mb vorticity is close to1016 mbs . There is little chance of 90L developing any time soon.
What chance would you give it after 48 hours?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

Surface pressure near the area of strongest 850 mb vorticity is close to1016 mbs . There is little chance of 90L developing any time soon.



whats the chs are that 90L will this fall apart
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Good evening

Surface pressure near the area of strongest 850 mb vorticity is close to1016 mbs . There is little chance of 90L developing any time soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting snotly:
any comments, realistic explanation... caused by weather?

Hard to tell. Could be wildfire. And there's a lot of military training in that general area, Twentynine Palms and Fort Irwin being the largest.

I get that sometimes certain entities will hide things for different reasons. But sometimes an absence of news is simply an absence of news. You know?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


But not with systems that lack inner cores.
That's my point. The fact that the storm isn't in the WCar is not BY ITSELF an inhibitor to rapid intensification. The problem with this system since it hit the Antilles [well, really 50W] is that it hasn't been able to consolidate a central core; no core = nothing to rapidly intensify in the first place.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Clutter, wildfire, or stationary precipitation?


I think it's just clutter. Doesn't appear to be originating from a particular source.
Don't think this would support precip.
Daggett-Barstow, CA
Temperature
102 °F
Dew Point 33 °F


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:
Volcanic eruption? LMAO.

The user asked a question in regards to a video he saw. I get your gig on the blog with all the humor and doom etc, but you come off as a ....(insert own word) with comments like that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
anyone think the models will shift to the north again


If they do, I highly doubt it will be toward your general direction.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IceCoast:


Also, to me it doesn't really look like a volcanic eruption. Think that guy may be full of it. Couldn't see it on Sat imagery either.




Clutter, wildfire, or stationary precipitation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
672. 7544
anyone think the models will shift to the north again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Autistic2:
Does Dmin and Dmax mean anything to an open tropical waves w/o a closed circulation?


DMIN and DMAX apply to almost any form of oceanic convection, with the exception of mature tropical cyclones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For chlorophyll maps near California, try here: Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


It's past 90's bedtime, he needs his beauty rest. He'll wake up at around, say noon tomorrow, have some coffee and we'll repeat today tomorrow.

Don't believe I've every spent more hours on a wave.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Good question, in terms of maximum advantage vs minimum.

If you have a system with a closed low at the surface, you have a real heat engine. Without this, you have a collection of thunderstorms.

Well, cliffhanger pre-Don needs his DMAX beauty rest (!) and so do I. Nice having a system on your own circadian time, instead of opposite!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting snotly:
any comments, realistic explanation... caused by weather?



Also, to me it doesn't really look like a volcanic eruption. Think that guy may be full of it. Couldn't see it on Sat imagery either.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting snotly:
any comments, realistic explanation... caused by weather?



Not sure specifically, but recent SST changes (warming, despite regular upwelling) in the California area have resulted from the partial blocking of the California Current by a warm anomaly near the Pacific Northwest.

For unconfirmed result of a scientific study linking phytoplankton chlorophyll-a blooms to upwelling potentially preceding earthquake activity, see link: Plankton blooms linked to quakes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Autistic2:
Does Dmin and Dmax mean anything to an open tropical waves w/o a closed circulation?
Good question, in terms of maximum advantage vs minimum.

If you have a system with a closed low at the surface, you have a real heat engine. Without this, you have a collection of thunderstorms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is becoming much larger, but again a wait and see situation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:


agree it looks like its heading for the bahammas and might get relocated abit north imo whatever it is its becoming larger size
heading to the nw carib
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does Dmin and Dmax mean anything to an open tropical waves w/o a closed circulation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
661. 7544
Quoting hotrods:
I remember when StormW was on here, he use to say watch the way the cloud tops where moving, it looks like there moving in the direction of the SE Bahamas. Which would be in a NW direction, i could be wrong though, just trying to learn and observe.


agree it looks like its heading for the bahammas and might get relocated abit north imo whatever it is its becoming larger size
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 711 - 661

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron