July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting DestinJeff:


tomorrow your wind should come from due east, as 90L begins to pass to your south.

Don at 1700
Ill see you no Don at 1700 and raise it to no Don 1700 on Tuesday.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting scott39:
I dont now if some these folks can hold out 4 or 5 more days Kori. Such strong doses of reality! LOL


Reality is cruel, but it is what it is... ;)
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Quoting hunkerdown:
wave train not too impressive...


Give it time. The ECMWF has been hinting that the eastern Atlantic may get a bit more active over the next 10 days (nothing organized, but worth watching).
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Quoting KoritheMan:


lol

Yes, although I meant over the next four or five days. Thereafter, depending on where it's at, upper-level winds might be a little more conducive.
I dont now if some these folks can hold out 4 or 5 more days Kori. Such strong doses of reality! LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting TXEER:
Pcoladan

Austin Texas down by the Colorado River at dusk...a gazillion bats.


Yep, seems it has shown up on radar before too under the right conditions.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
wave train not too impressive...


Not yet; Maybe in a couple of weeks...
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Quoting scott39:
Is that your final answer?


lol

Yes, although I meant over the next four or five days. Thereafter, depending on where it's at, upper-level winds might be a little more conducive.
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It's currently windy in central jamaica, the wind is blowing from the NE.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
wave train not too impressive...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


In my opinion, nothing will happen with this wave. While it is forecast to gain latitude, shear values will be a little too high.
Is that your final answer?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
742. beell
Quoting PcolaDan:


Actually that was my only serious thought too. Seem to remember seeing that before in Texas once, and it was bats.


Looks like a fire. Wild or otherwise.
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739. TXEER
Pcoladan

Austin Texas down by the Colorado River at dusk...a gazillion bats.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I agree. Surface observations across the islands supported a developing low this time yesterday.



but not tonight
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114719
NAM in 78hrs. Not the best model to rely on in the tropics however.

Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I've been wrong plenty of times, but come on, I know you know it won't develop until it reaches the western Caribbean at the earliest.

If anything, I'm confident in my forecast :)


Technically we don't "know", which was my point. But I'm just being pedantic. :P
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Quoting Chucktown:


Its bats coming out of a cave - seen this several times on the Discovery channel.


Actually that was my only serious thought too. Seem to remember seeing that before in Texas once, and it was bats.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's not like either of us haven't been wrong before, right? *shrug*


I've been wrong plenty of times, but come on, I know you know it won't develop until it reaches the western Caribbean at the earliest.

If anything, I'm confident in my forecast :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
90L will not develop until the western Caribbean at the earliest, I guarantee that (Yes, I know, guarantee is a HUGE word, but I'm going to use it).


It's not like either of us haven't been wrong before, right? *shrug*
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Quoting PcolaDan:


That's the one.
Although after looking at #700, I'm thinking plague of locust. Kind of fits in with 2012 scenario.


Its bats coming out of a cave - seen this several times on the Discovery channel.
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90L will not develop until the western Caribbean at the earliest, I guarantee that (Yes, I know, guarantee is a HUGE word, but I'm going to use it).
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Quoting reedzone:


It literally can't, high pressure is just too strong to the north, plus wind shear of 30 knots would rip it apart. Right now, that wind shear is helping 90Ls outflow.
I think he wants it to go north!
Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 329


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Quoting FLdewey:


Was that the one with Tommy Lee Jones? :-p

Maybe CA is finally breaking away and floating into the Pacific.



That's the one.
Although after looking at #700, I'm thinking plague of locust. Kind of fits in with 2012 scenario.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
what is going on at 35 west!!


In my opinion, nothing will happen with this wave. While it is forecast to gain latitude, shear values will be a little too high.
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Quoting CatfishJones:


(perspicacious individual?) (pan-dimensional being of liquid helium metabolism?) Who is going to put buffoon in parentheses in regards to themselves, taking in to account the comment to which you object? I find it humorous that the video implies a conspiratorial "blocking of feeds," as it were. If there is a lack of continuity in supporting evidence for a geological- specifically volcanic- event, I would take that as substantial evidence that it is not in fact a serious, if even actual, event. The USGS would be all over it. USGS Volcano Alerts. As you can see, they are not; there is no event.


I never said there was any volcanic event? The first thing I did was check the USGS site. It was just curious to look at on radar.
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Quoting 7544:


thanks just asking what if it goes north of pr tia


It literally can't, high pressure is just too strong to the north, plus wind shear of 30 knots would rip it apart. Right now, that wind shear is helping 90Ls outflow.
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Quoting alfabob:
Improvement in terms of dissipating the westward flow to the S/SE (24 hour comparison)




I think there is just a bit of ridging out there, lol. Lil weakness off the east coast.
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716. 7544
Quoting reedzone:
The structure of 90L is improving tonight as the two pieces come together. While convection is diminishing for now, I believe we will see a new burst of convection form on top of what appears to be a developing low near 70W. Wind shear is also decreasing further west because the ULL is moving west. If the low stays south of the Islands, like it appears to be doing, I would say chances of this becoming our 4th Depression are much higher then what the officials are saying. Can't always depend on the models.


thanks just asking what if it goes north of pr tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
Quoting cctxshirl:

I usually pay more attention to this at this time of year, but I figure what happens happens.


Exactly. I know it's hard, but it's best not to worry until one actually threatens. Fretting over a situation does not change make.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think he meant more along the lines of making it difficult to track. After all, if it doesn't show up well in the global model fields (such as was the case with Bret), then it becomes harder to forecast.
OK,my mistake.Kori to the rescue!

I'm also happy ECM doesn't develop it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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