July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting scott39:
I disagree with some scientists, who do not agree with adding a Cat 6. If the winds are there...it needs to be added, regardless if the damage is relatively the same as a cat 5. people need to know if a TC with winds 176mph or more is headed towards them.

It's an interesting debate, but if people are still chilling around when a 160mph Cat 5 is coming at them is the extra 16mph going to change their mind.
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


LOL at a heated chess match. Never heard of that before.


I was in a heated staring match once. DestinJeff won. :|
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


LOL at a heated chess match. Never heard of that before.


Good chess between two equals entails a bit of sweating. That and/or eyes burning. There is also the relatively new sport of Chess Boxing. Obviously, that entails both connotations of "heated."

Re: Bat Scenario- It is quite common. This blog has seen similar occurrences, predominately in Texas. We in Florida have had our fair share too, but not such impressive displays.
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Quoting FLdewey:


Was that the one with Tommy Lee Jones? :-p

Maybe CA is finally breaking away and floating into the Pacific.


I always wanted to secede from the union.
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shear is really droping for 90L system

LinkLink
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


for a longer version of the answer IceCoast gave, see:

http://www.livescience.com/10054-category-5-hurri canes-rare.html

or

http://www.hurricaneville.com/catfiveintensity.ht ml
I disagree with some scientists, who do not agree with adding a Cat 6. If the winds are there...it needs to be added, regardless if the damage is relatively the same as a cat 5. people need to know if a TC with winds 176mph or more is headed towards them.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
No harm done catfish. The bat scenario would be interesting, never witnessed it before but sure is plausible. Could just as well been clutter.
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Quoting scott39:
Is that your final track?


yes
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Quoting CatfishJones:


I was engaged in a heated chess match, so I apologize for the delay and the confusion on my point. I only intended the first portion for you: a parenthetical euphemism for self-sentencing of an individual requires them to make comments other than the one you quoted-- think of it as a long-winded "don't waste your time." The rest was an afterthought/ example of how one could intelligently view the volcano scenario as laughable. The current "bat" (or even "locust") scenario seems much more plausible. Again, I apologize for the misunderstanding.


LOL at a heated chess match. Never heard of that before.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Trust me Taz, you'll get that soon.



ok
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Quoting blsealevel:
Rainbow in the Dark



Link


That's the name of an old Ronnie James Dio tune from the 1980's................
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799. MTWX
Quoting redwagon:

That and the "K" name can stay out of this!!!
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


for a longer version of the answer IceCoast gave, see:

http://www.livescience.com/10054-category-5-hurri canes-rare.html

Yeah thanks
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Quoting IceCoast:


I never said there was any volcanic event? The first thing I did was check the USGS site. It was just curious to look at on radar.


I was engaged in a heated chess match, so I apologize for the delay and the confusion on my point. I only intended the first portion for you: a parenthetical euphemism for self-sentencing of an individual requires them to make comments other than the one you quoted-- think of it as a long-winded "don't waste your time." The rest was an afterthought/ example of how one could intelligently view the volcano scenario as laughable. The current "bat" (or even "locust") scenario seems much more plausible. Again, I apologize for the misunderstanding.
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Quoting nigel20:
Can someone explain why hurricanes find it hard to attain cat 5 status.


for a longer version of the answer IceCoast gave, see:

http://www.livescience.com/10054-category-5-hurri canes-rare.html

or

http://www.hurricaneville.com/catfiveintensity.ht ml
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Quoting alfabob:
850-700mb stacked, although weak.


Nice vorticity hope it brings tx/la some rain!!!!!!!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


To 90L.
So you see a strong potiential for developement if it makes it into the GOM?
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Quoting scott39:
Friendly to us or 90L? LOL


To 90L.
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90L is moving 6 degrees longitude per 24 hours. I say if its hanging on this time Sunday...Its going to get alot more interesting.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I know this place up in Palm Harbor...
HaHaHaHa!
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From what Im reading about 90L....IF... it makes it into the Western Caribbean and into the GOM...GAME ON!
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Rainbow in the Dark



Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Modest at first (but still not destructive), then giving way to friendlier conditions.
Friendly to us or 90L? LOL
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787. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Trust me Taz, you'll get that soon.


8 days till August, that's when it all really starts. :\
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say that 90L is at 16.5N 67.5W and will develop and pull of a kinda Fay/Gustav track but head more west once in GOM to LA/TX
Is that your final track?
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Quoting scott39:
Hows the forecast for windshear in the GOM if 90L is still Kicking?


Modest at first (but still not destructive), then giving way to friendlier conditions.
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Quoting IceCoast:


In short, conditions have to be absolutely perfect. Very low wind shear, very high SST's, good outflow in all quads, no dry air. Im not sure anyone know's why the few storms that actually become Cat 5 monsters do so. I bet someone can offer a much better explanation than this also.
Thanks for the info.
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I say that 90L is at 16.5N 67.5W and will develop and pull of a kinda Fay/Gustav track but head more west once in GOM to LA/TX
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i this want some in real too track and not TS


Trust me Taz, you'll get that soon.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



oh ok


The climatological average for the Pacific is 15/8/3 compared to the Atlantic's measly 11/6/2.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I personally think it'll skirt just to the south of them still, but it will be a very close call.
Hows the forecast for windshear in the GOM if 90L is still Kicking?
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i this want some in real too track and not TS
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Quoting scott39:
Kori, Is 90L forecasted to over the Islands?


I personally think it'll skirt just to the south of them still, but it will be a very close call.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Not at all. The Eastern Pacific is climatologically more active than the Atlantic, meaning that early season activity is to be expected. It is not unheard of to get major hurricanes in May in that basin, while here the real season does not begin until August.

Patience.



oh ok
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Is 90L too weak and moving too fast to be "killed off" by land until it gets into the GOM?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Because conditions have to be pretty much perfect for that to happen. And all too often, they are not.
Ok
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Quoting Tazmanian:
in fac its all most like we have a vary weak EL Nino out there


Not at all. The Eastern Pacific is climatologically more active than the Atlantic, meaning that early season activity is to be expected. It is not unheard of to get major hurricanes in May in that basin, while here the real season does not begin until August.

Patience.
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Quoting nigel20:
Can someone explain why hurricanes find it hard to attain cat 5 status.


In short, conditions have to be absolutely perfect. Very low wind shear, very high SST's, good outflow in all quads, no dry air. Im not sure anyone know's why the few storms that actually become Cat 5 monsters do so. I bet someone can offer a much better explanation than this also.
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Kori, Is 90L forecasted to over the Islands?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting nigel20:
Can someone explain why hurricanes find it hard to attain cat 5 status.


Because conditions have to be pretty much perfect for that to happen. And all too often, they are not.
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in fac its all most like we have a vary weak EL Nino out there
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Quoting alfabob:
850-700mb stacked, although weak.
Its holding on!
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the next name storm for the E PAC is Eugene
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Quoting Tazmanian:
the E PAC been more fun this year so far in fac i think mode runs are sping up a few more storms
Alot more interesting to watch...so far.
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the E PAC been more fun this year so far in fac i think mode runs are sping up a few more storms
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Can someone explain why hurricanes find it hard to attain cat 5 status.
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Beautiful light show here in the VI
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Quoting scott39:
I dont now if some these folks can hold out 4 or 5 more days Kori. Such strong doses of reality! LOL
Im sorry I had Taz fever in that first sentence! (all in fun Taz):)
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting DestinJeff:


tomorrow your wind should come from due east, as 90L begins to pass to your south.

Don at 1700
Ill see you no Don at 1700 and raise it to no Don 1700 on Tuesday.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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