July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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D-Max soon arrives we should start to see convection to increase between now and sunrise
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860. JRRP
NGP 00z
168h

im out..
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Quoting FrankZapper:
There are a lot of kids and thrill seakers on this site who don't seem to get it.
They wont get it until they live it. Hopefully they will never have to.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
Quoting CatfishJones:


I was living on Wrightsville Beach (a barrier island) near Wilmington, NC in 1996. This is why we moved.
You know how it sounds and feels then.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
Link

Bats haul a**
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Quoting TXHolly:


You and me both!
There are a lot of kids and thrill seakers on this site who don't seem to get it.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Mobile?

A friend of mine made a small fortune adjusting in S Ala after Fredric
Yes, I was a kid then and judging from the damage...there was fortune to be made. There was debate for a long time if Frederic was a 3 at landfall or a 4. It sounded like a 6 going over my house! LOL
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I just hope all MHs are fish this year.

Me too.
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Quoting scott39:
Me too, Ive been thru bad ones(hurricane Fredric 79 was the worst) and they are no FUN during or afterwords.


I was living on Wrightsville Beach (a barrier island) near Wilmington, NC in 1996. This is why we moved.
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Quoting scott39:
Me too, Ive been thru bad ones(hurricane Fredric 79 was the worst) and they are no FUN during or afterwords.
Mobile?

A friend of mine made a small fortune adjusting in S Ala after Fredric
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I just hope all MHs are fish this year.


You and me both!
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Cat 4 before Cat 5 and your in the clear, Cat 5 before Cat 4 never been sicker I always say!
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I just hope all MHs are fish this year.
Me too, Ive been thru bad ones(hurricane Fredric 79 was the worst) and they are no FUN during or afterwords.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
I just hope all MHs are fish this year.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Think The Pentagon.
Ah--Ha
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Seriously, I have no problem if they have a Cat 6 and a Cat 7 for the 1 in 10000 that have winds greater than 200 mph.
Yea, I know Wilma is the most recent that got close. I was suprised to read that from a scientific point of view, that wind speed and Cat ranking were even up for debate.
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Quoting scott39:
Layman terms please?
Think The Pentagon.
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Quoting scott39:
Layman terms please?


We like the number five.
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Quoting CatfishJones:


Because all American agencies are fond of penta-based systems of coding.
Layman terms please?
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Quoting scott39:
So do I... So why shouldnt there be another cat if wind speed dictates?
Seriously, I have no problem if they have a Cat 6 and a Cat 7 for the 1 in 10000 that have winds greater than 200 mph.
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Quoting scott39:
So do I... So why shouldnt there be another cat if wind speed dictates?


Because all American agencies are fond of penta-based systems of coding.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I respect a strong TS
So do I... So why shouldnt there be another cat if wind speed dictates?
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Quoting scott39:
LOL... Does a Cat 4 command the exact same respect as a Cat5 to you?
I respect a strong TS
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This is from the same guy that posts videos like these....
so stupid...
Link
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I think they fear it might detract from the seriousness of a Cat 5. " Honey stop bugging me. Tell me if it becomes a Cat 6. Get me a beer. I'm watching NASCAR!"
LOL... Does a Cat 4 command the exact same respect as a Cat5 to you?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Are you referring to the link I provided you with for reference, or is that a facetious remark? Because the loop you* provided is over the course of two hours. Bats are swift. If you did not take in the extent of the link I posted, please take this opportunity to do so now.

*I retract that error, the loop I was referring to was posted by IceCoast. My point however remains the same.
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833. beell
Quoting IceCoast:


Point taken. With still a weak reflectivity do you think that minimizes the chances of it being bats?


Would not rule out bats. Lot of old mines in the Mojave that provide shelter. Not much experience here on bat returns on radar!

SE of Barstow, S of I-40. Pretty close to being right in the mddle of Twentynine Palms USMC Air/Ground Combat Training Area.
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Quoting IceCoast:

It's an interesting debate, but if people are still chilling around when a 160mph Cat 5 is coming at them is the extra 16mph going to change their mind.
I think they fear it might detract from the seriousness of a Cat 5. " Honey stop bugging me. Tell me if it becomes a Cat 6. Get me a beer. I'm watching NASCAR!"
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Don't know how many of you are still around, but here is the blog I just did on 90L and Dora.

I'm out for the night.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 585 Comments: 20862
Quoting CatfishJones:
Bats. Please stop. If it were anything else, it would be all over the news. Those bats were hauling a**
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Bats. Please stop. If it were anything else, it would be all over the news.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says:

AL, 90, 2011072400, , BEST, 0, 161N, 662W, 25, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Its moving fast!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
Link looks pretty trippy
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Link
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Quoting IceCoast:

It's an interesting debate, but if people are still chilling around when a 160mph Cat 5 is coming at you is the extra 16mph going to change their mind?
No, If its coming on shore at 160mph and your still picking your nose and scratching your head.... then those people are in dangerous love with hurricanes! My point is if after so many mph it goes up another Cat, then it deserves Cat 6 when it reaches 176mph! When do they decide to add anothe Cat 180, 190, or 200mph?
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ATCF says:

AL, 90, 2011072400, , BEST, 0, 161N, 662W, 25, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Quoting beell:


Clutter is usually confined to a much shorter radius of the radar and presents a persistent low reflectivity pattern.

These returns were from a single point that quickly attained a fair amount of height based on the strong reflectivity at the source.

Definitely not clutter.


Point taken. With still a weak reflectivity do you think that minimizes the chances of it being bats?
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Quoting JRRP:


and what is the analys of this ascat image?
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Link Sorry, left off the comment. seems to be falling apart.
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816. beell
Quoting IceCoast:
No harm done catfish. The bat scenario would be interesting, never witnessed it before but sure is plausible. Could just as well been clutter.


Clutter is usually confined to a much shorter radius of the radar and presents a persistent low reflectivity pattern.

These returns were from a single point that quickly attained a fair amount of height based on the strong reflectivity at the source.

Definitely not clutter.
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815. JRRP
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Link
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Quoting blsealevel:
Rainbow in the Dark



Link
Ronnie James Dio!
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Quoting nigel20:
Can someone explain why hurricanes find it hard to attain cat 5 status.
I would think you need all atmospheric and surface conditions to be perfect, and even then, they seem to do what they wanna do anyway regardless of predictions??
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Quoting scott39:
I disagree with some scientists, who do not agree with adding a Cat 6. If the winds are there...it needs to be added, regardless if the damage is relatively the same as a cat 5. people need to know if a TC with winds 176mph or more is headed towards them.

It's an interesting debate, but if people are still chilling around when a 160mph Cat 5 is coming at them is the extra 16mph going to change their mind.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.