July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting beell:
A first guess on steering for 90L:

Models bending a little to the N (right) after 90L clears the western tip of Cuba and rounds the western edge of the 700mb ridge. This should occur in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as the base of the east coast trough erodes the ridge-but not by much. Builds back in strong on Thursday/Friday which would lead to a turn back to the west and a "landfall" in S TX/NE MX. Quite a bit of uncertainty in this shallow "S" curve at this point. A WAG for now.



I agree with you beell about the High building back in after the Troft goes through but I see a possible 2 high pressures building back in and the storm goes between to 2 highs and hits somewhere near Pcola and the Big Bend of FL......
Thats if the 2nd High pressure makes a play into this setup.... But if not I see where it could be a S TX and NE MX land fall....


Taco :o)
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
looks to be about 100 miles south of the western tip of dom republic
hey Joe, heard we had some interesting radar echoes earlier over the socal desert
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and its been and still is in a area not condusive for development from a wave to a closed,stacked circulation, and is now trying to do that. one step in the development cycle at a time in this area. its area where the center is trying to form is over water, and the westerly track should keep the developing center off land for some time.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
There are a lot of kids and thrill seakers on this site who don't seem to get it.


There have been times I evacuated, and times I didn't (for lots of different reasons...including the alternator going out on the van and no auto parts stores being open. We got lucky, the storm missed us.) I have never regretted leaving, even if the storm ended up going somewhere else. But there are definitely some times when we didn't that I wished we had. Hurricane Ike in '08 comes to mind. Our excuse was that we didn't have the money to leave so soon after the evacuation for Gustav.
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907. beell
A first guess on steering for 90L:

Models bending a little to the N (right) after 90L clears the western tip of Cuba and rounds the western edge of the 700mb ridge. This should occur in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as the base of the east coast trough erodes the ridge-but not by much. Builds back in strong on Thursday/Friday which would lead to a turn back to the west and a "landfall" in S TX/NE MX. Quite a bit of uncertainty in this shallow "S" curve at this point. A WAG for now.

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Quoting scott39:
No I will be coming to your house! HaHa


Come right on over we will have a Party for sure :o)



Taco :o)
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Quoting scott39:
Im starting to think that we are grasping at 90L.
i think its gonna develop. may take a couple more days, but i see a TD/Min TS in the area of cuba/yucata,GOM in good time
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
is that a vort or LLC spinning at 16n 68w?

One trying to form, being reinforced by the mid-level. Once it starts building more convection it will be at the surface.
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hi tom, didnt see ya. how goes it?
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Im starting to think that we are grasping at 90L.
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looks to be about 100 miles south of the western tip of dom republic
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Quoting TomTaylor:
no we aren't in dmin, we're about 4 hours from dmax (just after sunrise). The reason we aren't seeing convection flare right now is because convection doesn't go on forever, except when you already have a decent preexisting low pressure region. In our case right now, we have a large, broad, non closed circulation associated with a tropical wave with a few vort maxes imbedded within the tropical wave. As a result, convection can not be completely sustained throughout the day and we see convective cycles. Since the tropical wave already blew up with convection all day today, convection has died down.

What is unusual about this wave is it does not appear to be following normal convective cycles. Perhaps it has something to do with the very divergent conditions aloft.
Thanks, I saw this flip-flop in cycles back in 2009. They didnt make it!
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its looks to be at the surfaCE? NO?
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Quoting alfabob:
Link
is that a vort or LLC spinning at 16n 68w?
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Quoting taco2me61:


Yes I have one and now have 10- 5 gal gas Jugs too...

What about you ?????

Taco :o)
No I will be coming to your house! HaHa
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Quoting scott39:
The odds are not in our favor. Do you have a generator?


Yes I have one and now have 10- 5 gal gas Jugs too...

What about you ?????

Taco :o)
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its quite amazing actually
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Link
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

umm we are in D-Min (suppresion of Convection) soon to go D-Max(mre favered for convection development)
no we aren't in dmin, we're about 4 hours from dmax (just after sunrise). The reason we aren't seeing convection flare right now is because convection doesn't go on forever, except when you already have a decent preexisting low pressure region. In our case right now, we have a large, broad, non closed circulation associated with a tropical wave with a few vort maxes imbedded within the tropical wave. As a result, convection can not be completely sustained throughout the day and we see convective cycles. Since the tropical wave already blew up with convection all day today, convection has died down.

What is unusual about this wave is it does not appear to be following normal convective cycles. Perhaps it has something to do with the very divergent conditions aloft.
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Quoting CatfishJones:


Isn't that the link I posted for you a page or so back?

Elsewhere, WV loop seems to show 90l taking the northern route. Or rather the convection seems to be building there.
i don't know, i missed it, and I wasnt trying to be a smart ass,when i said bats haul ass
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Quoting FrankZapper:
#2 Tampa, Fla.


HA. Wouldn't that be just peachy. I now live in Seminole, Fl- right across the Bay from Tampa.
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anyway I am off till morn I need to be fresh to know if 90L will become a hazard to me while on vacation in Jam so I can leave early
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Quoting taco2me61:

agreed we have not had one hit here since 79 and that bothers me, because we all know our time is coming....
Will it be this year or next year? "not really sure" But I know our time is going to run out soon....

Taco :o)
The most overdue city. Savannah,GA. #2 Tampa, Fla. Savannah has had no direct hits since the late 1800s. It had 3 or 4 wipeouts in the 1800s
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not the centre atleast but on the northern side kinda but too much of problems cause its not really affecting the centre


Point taken.
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Quoting scott39:
Ivan went thru Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores and tore up Pensacola.

when Ivan came to visit me it did not as you say tore up the place it leveled Grand Cayman no joke it was water to water no land
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500mb, still 3z image
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Quoting taco2me61:

agreed we have not had one hit here since 79 and that bothers me, because we all know our time is coming....
Will it be this year or next year? "not really sure" But I know our time is going to run out soon....

Taco :o)
The odds are not in our favor. Do you have a generator?
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Quoting CatfishJones:


It is not currently encountering a landmass?

not the centre atleast but on the northern side kinda but too much of problems cause its not really affecting the centre
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Quoting scott39:
Federic is the last Major hurricane that Mobile has taken a direct hit from!

agreed we have not had one hit here since 79 and that bothers me, because we all know our time is coming....
Will it be this year or next year? "not really sure" But I know our time is going to run out soon....

Taco :o)
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Ivan went thru Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores and tore up Pensacola.
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past 67.5W (15.5N) now, looking better; this has been moving straight west. Mid-level will establish first, almost closed (400-700mb).
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no it is absolutly not


It is not currently encountering a landmass?
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Quoting CatfishJones:


I was living on Wrightsville Beach (a barrier island) near Wilmington, NC in 1996. This is why we moved.
I remember that year. You were wacked 3 times.

My worst was 65 (Betsy) in NOLA because unlike Katrina, nobody evacuated back then. Hell, we were sent home from school at Noon and by 5 PM we were experiencing hurricane force winds.
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Quoting CatfishJones:


Yes, but it is sitting on Hispaniola.

no it is absolutly not
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Quoting FrankZapper:
So Fredric was worse than Ivan? Didn't Fredric completely wipe clean Dauphin Island?


No I would say they were the exactly the same....
Same Damage same type of Storm.... They both were cat 4's but Like Scott said hell it could have been a 6 going over the house..... But the only problem was we were at a School and it was bad there too....


Taco :o)
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Federic is the last Major hurricane that Mobile has taken a direct hit from!
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Quoting scott39:
Why is 90L lacking convection? Moisture is around it and wind shear is around 10knts.

umm we are in D-Min (suppresion of Convection) soon to go D-Max(mre favered for convection development)
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Quoting scott39:
Why is 90L lacking convection? Moisture is around it and wind shear is around 10knts.


Yes, but it is sitting on Hispaniola.
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Quoting 7544:
looks like 90l is trying to reform just noth of the dr ? dont see anything going on at 16/ 66

nope nothing N of DR 16/66 seem to be very much correct
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Why is 90L lacking convection? Moisture is around it and wind shear is around 10knts.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
let me try again... sorry


Isn't that the link I posted for you a page or so back?

Elsewhere, WV loop seems to show 90l taking the northern route. Or rather the convection seems to be building there.
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Quoting taco2me61:


I agree I was a kid too and remember 21 tornados when Fredric went through....

Taco :o)
So Fredric was worse than Ivan? Didn't Fredric completely wipe clean Dauphin Island?
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Quoting taco2me61:


I agree I was a kid too and remember 21 tornados when Fredric went through....

Taco :o)
I heard there were over 200 in the whole system. Alot of them popped down and snapped 50ft pine trees in half. The winds going over my house sounded like trains going through my living room!
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Link
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Quoting FrankZapper:
There are a lot of kids and thrill seakers on this site who don't seem to get it.


It's all fun and games until it's your house with a telephone pole through the roof and you're going to school at local church's mutli-purpose room and you're living in a hotel or a friend's house.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
I would love to see tht. But that link keeps taking me to a video about Amy Winehouse. :(
let me try again... sorry
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864. 7544
looks like 90l is trying to reform just noth of the dr ? dont see anything going on at 16/ 66
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Quoting scott39:
Yes, I was a kid then and judging from the damage...there was fortune to be made. There was debate for a long time if Frederic was a 3 at landfall or a 4. It sounded like a 6 going over my house! LOL


I agree I was a kid too and remember 21 tornados when Fredric went through....

Taco :o)
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Link

Bats haul a**
I would love to see that. But that link keeps taking me to a video about Amy Winehouse. :(
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D-Max soon arrives we should start to see convection to increase between now and sunrise
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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