July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting TampaSpin:
Good Morning everyone! Don't be surprised if the Wave 90L makes somewhat of a comeback! The Wave is still there as Shear is forecast to drop to near nothing as it approaches the Western Caribbean. Still need to keep 1 eye open as there is 1 model the WRF that is showing support for development near the Western Tip of Cuba! Wait and watch the next couple of days! I know many of you don't follow models and use naked eye for forecasting. Again, the models seem to have won this one AGAIN!
I agree, there may be more yet for 90L. Also the wave behind it also appears anemic this morning.
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Morning Tampa, all, anyone. Lol. Looks like the mountains really did a number on out invest. I'm still hoping the wave will give us rain. Depending on who you want to believe that's not a given either. Sigh.

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO


GMZ089-241530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO 7430 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 27N/28N. THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE SE GULF LATE TUE AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF WED BEFORE DISSIPATING THU.

$$
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Good Morning everyone! Don't be surprised if the Wave 90L makes somewhat of a comeback! The Wave is still there as Shear is forecast to drop to near nothing as it approaches the Western Caribbean. Still need to keep 1 eye open as there is 1 model the WRF that is showing support for development near the Western Tip of Cuba! Wait and watch the next couple of days! I know many of you don't follow models and use naked eye for forecasting. Again, the models seem to have won this one AGAIN!
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90L not doing so well. Probably near 0% for development over the next 48hours IMO.



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Miami NWS Discussion

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SO FAR MOST OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE IS FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AS AN OPEN
WAVE WITH ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL AREA BEING JUST A SOURCE OF
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE. BUT OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ANY CHANGES IF
ANY IN THE GUIDANCE TRENDS.

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Quoting TomTaylor:
Oh boy. Well hopefully that text can change up a bit in the very near future and send that wave more to the north lol

Anyway, I'm out for tonight. Hoping for the best for you and the rest in Texas! Night


Thanks Tom! :) Good night. Guess we'll see what tomorrow brings.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Well they're not calling it a possible tropical cyclone any more. They seem to keep the wave south. Sounds familiar. :)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 27N/28N WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SE
PORTION OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
RIDGE TIGHTENS.



Oh boy. Well hopefully that text can change up a bit in the very near future and send that wave more to the north lol

Anyway, I'm out for tonight. Hoping for the best for you and the rest in Texas! Night
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954. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Post-tropical storm "Cindy" 1008 53N27W, moving northeast and then
filling and loosing its identity.
Low 1013 39N06W, with little move.
New low expected 1007 48N40W by 24/12 UTC, moving northeast,
expected 1007 50N35W by 25/00UTC.
High 1029 40N27W, drifting northeast and expected 1030 40N25W by
25/00UTC.


Tropical wave from 10N31W to 17N30W, moving west at 10 kt.

ITCZ along 10N16W 08N20W 12N31W 06N44W.

--------
Don't look like much information from Meteo France for tropical waves close to Africa.
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Anything with the others TW coming out of Africa?
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Well they're not calling it a possible tropical cyclone any more. They seem to keep the wave south. Sounds familiar. :)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 27N/28N WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SE
PORTION OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
RIDGE TIGHTENS.



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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
goes out 72 hours, sitting just south of the western tip of cuba


Ok. Thanks. :)
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Quoting TomTaylor:
thanks, hopefully you can get some rain in Texas! Models have been pretty consistent in sending the wave into your neck of the woods. Hopefully these runs will verify


Yep, fingers crossed. If this Texas blow dryer doesn't kill it. :)
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949. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


An area of convection (93W) located at 12.4N 128.9E or 470 NM east southeast of Manila, Philippines. Recent animated multispectral imagery shows convection slowly building over a well defined, albeit exposed low level circulation center. Infrared satellite imagery shows weak banding along the western and southern periphery that has deepened over the past 24 hours but remains poorly organized. Upper level analysis indicated the system is just to the west of a ridge axis in a moderate area of vertical wind shear.

Animated water vapor imagery shows some equatorward outflow, however, a tropical upper tropospheric trough cell approaching from the northeast is expected to open a poleward outflow channel over the next 24 hours. Coincidentally, as the system gains latitude, the vertical wind shear will relax and promote further development.

Maximum sustained wind near the center is 17-22 knots with a central pressure of 1006 MB based on recent scatterometry data and extrapolated from nearby surface observations.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Where do they send it?
goes out 72 hours, sitting just south of the western tip of cuba. 500mb low, havent seen any surface low yet, it appears to be trying though
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Nice analysis Tom. :)
thanks, hopefully you can get some rain in Texas! Models have been pretty consistent in sending the wave into your neck of the woods. Hopefully these runs will verify
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Not at the moment. As it nears the gulf, we'll have to pay a bit more attention, however. Upper level conditions will deteriorate a bit over the wave by the time it makes it to the gulf, but that's according to the models. So we'll have to keep a close an eye on it as it nears the gulf.


Agreed!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
UKMET has a Low right where we are seeing circulation


Where do they send it?
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Nice analysis Tom. :)
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Quoting scott39:
Is it a threat to develope in your opinion?
Not at the moment. As it nears the gulf, we'll have to pay a bit more attention, however. Upper level conditions will deteriorate a bit over the wave by the time it makes it to the gulf, but that's according to the models. So we'll have to keep a close an eye on it as it nears the gulf.
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UKMET has a Low right where we are seeing circulation
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Quoting TXHolly:


You got that right! Both my dad and my hubby work for the prison system, so they would have to stay. But I have "orders" from both of them to evacuate with my mom. And I don't plan to argue with either of them.


Smart girl! :) My husband's a manager at Walmart. So he can leave (at the last second of course) then he comes back because they supply the first responders. Didn't see a lot of him after Rita. Me and the kids were vehicle-less in Kilgore for a couple weeks. Longview after Ike. But not as long. He would drive it some times. That's a long commute. Lol.
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Still looks like 90L doesn't have much of a chance for the several days or so. A few reasons for this are the presence of land, increasing trade winds over the central Caribbean, and the large, broad, area of moisture and vorticity associated with this wave. I was wrong about upper level winds being not so conducive over the system. Looks like the anticyclone is building over the wave quite nicely thanks to all the convection which flourished under divergent conditions aloft. Additionally, since our little vort max we are watching, invest 90L, is a bit S of the center of the anticyclone, it is providing easterly winds aloft over the vort max/invest 90L. This is keeping shear very low over the vort max and fairly low over the rest of the wave, as well as keeping divergence strong over the system. Time to eat my crow.

Anyway, looking ahead with 90L, as I already said, any development looks unlikely for the next few days. Track should continue WNW or just north of west for a little, then head a little more northerly as the ridge is weakened a bit by the troughs. As I said last night, however, this won't allow the wave to be pulled out to the north. Instead it should head west into the Gulf of Mexico as the ridge builds back in. Around Tue/Wed is when we will really have to look out for development as the wave should enter the Gulf around Wednesday. Conditions over the gulf should be favorable for the most part, but upper level conditions will be the biggest things working against the system. That doesn't mean development can't or won't occur, however.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yep. A block from the high school here. :) Hoping we do get rain. But hopefully not from anything we might have to leave for.


You got that right! Both my dad and my hubby work for the prison system, so they would have to stay. But I have "orders" from both of them to evacuate with my mom. And I don't plan to argue with either of them.
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Sorry for being so technical here but...the ECMWF looks to bring 90l as an elongated blob kinda spread out along the Texas coast. That would be good if things turned out that way. Link
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Complete Update

Models have 90 as a CAT 2 in the GOM

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






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Quoting TXHolly:


Small world. I live near Smith Lake.


Yep. A block from the high school here. :) Hoping we do get rain. But hopefully not from anything we might have to leave for.
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Link

thers aloso alot of caves and lava tubes in that area for bats, but heres the video link if ya havent seen it
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Quoting alfabob:

The moisture is increasing and cloud tops cooling on eastern side, nothing drastic as of yet; but could start to increase soon.
ok
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Quoting TomTaylor:
no convection during dmax is not a bad thing if convection was already flaring all day prior to that point. It's not too unusual for disturbances to experience peaks and lows in convection at different times. The convective Dmax and Dmin occur when the atmosphere is most and least unstable. However, if convection has been going all day long (thanks to very divergent conditions aloft) instability will lower as a result of cooling of the lower atmosphere from rain and therefore convection will die off.
Is it a threat to develope in your opinion?
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Quoting beell:


Evening, taco2me61,
If 90L stays disorganized and/or interacts with land it should remain an open wave up to that point. Which may allow a continued WNW path embedded in the ridge. It may be well west of the NE gulf by that point and steered by a rebuilding sub-trop ridge building in from the east.

I probably just need some sleep and some rain else commnon sense would preclude making a guess this far out!


Lol. Hang in here Beell. The heats getting to us all.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Live in the middle of Vidor now. Was in Pine Forest until Rita.


Small world. I live near Smith Lake.
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Quoting TXHolly:


Where do you live? It sounds like we might just be in the same neck of the woods.


Live in the middle of Vidor now. Was in Pine Forest until Rita.
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Quoting scott39:
No convection during DMAX... I will eat crow if I have to, but I say 90L does not make it.
no convection during dmax is not a bad thing if convection was already flaring all day prior to that point. It's not too unusual for disturbances to experience peaks and lows in convection at different times. The convective Dmax and Dmin occur when the atmosphere is most and least unstable. However, if convection has been going all day long (thanks to very divergent conditions aloft) instability will lower as a result of cooling of the lower atmosphere from rain and therefore convection will die off.
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90L is as naked as a newborn.
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Quoting alfabob:

Convection already increasing over last couple of frames.
Are you refering to the pop off to the NE of the center?
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924. beell
Quoting taco2me61:


I agree with you beell about the High building back in after the Troft goes through but I see a possible 2 high pressures building back in and the storm goes between to 2 highs and hits somewhere near Pcola and the Big Bend of FL......
Thats if the 2nd High pressure makes a play into this setup.... But if not I see where it could be a S TX and NE MX land fall....


Taco :o)


Evening, taco2me61,
If 90L stays disorganized and/or interacts with land it should remain an open wave up to that point. Which may allow a continued WNW path embedded in the ridge. It may be well west of the NE gulf by that point and steered by a rebuilding sub-trop ridge from the east.

I probably just need some sleep and some rain else commnon sense would preclude making a guess this far out!
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Quoting alfabob:

Convection already increasing over last couple of frames.
Ok will check it out.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
lol.....yup......bats or a volcano
hmm interesting.

Looked at the satellite images and didn't see much. So a volcanic eruption sounds unlikely. Not to mention the media would be all over it if that were the case.

Anyway, have fun with your lab. Already walked my husky/akita mix dog. She's the best
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Sounds like you've been through the same ones as I. We did evac for Gus and Ike. Wasn't easy. I'm forever grateful I got my husband to leave for Rita. He didn't come with the kids and me for the Lili evac. But he did call me from our bed that night. Rita put a huge oak tree on that bed 3 years later. He's a believer now. If that didn't convince him the night in a mobile home with Humberto raging outside was enough. It's a hard call to stay or to go some times. Sigh. I don't want to believe we'll have to face that question again any time soon. Guess the best we can do is keep an eye out and be prepared.


Where do you live? It sounds like we might just be in the same neck of the woods.
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No convection during DMAX... I will eat crow if I have to, but I say 90L does not make it.
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850mb vorticity is not looking good for 90L.
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ok Getting late and I will check back in later today :o) all have a wonderful morning:o)



Taco :o)
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Quoting TXHolly:


There have been times I evacuated, and times I didn't (for lots of different reasons...including the alternator going out on the van and no auto parts stores being open. We got lucky, the storm missed us.) I have never regretted leaving, even if the storm ended up going somewhere else. But there are definitely some times when we didn't that I wished we had. Hurricane Ike in '08 comes to mind. Our excuse was that we didn't have the money to leave so soon after the evacuation for Gustav.


Sounds like you've been through the same ones as I. We did evac for Gus and Ike. Wasn't easy. I'm forever grateful I got my husband to leave for Rita. He didn't come with the kids and me for the Lili evac. But he did call me from our bed that night. Rita put a huge oak tree on that bed 3 years later. He's a believer now. If that didn't convince him the night in a mobile home with Humberto raging outside was enough. It's a hard call to stay or to go some times. Sigh. I don't want to believe we'll have to face that question again any time soon. Guess the best we can do is keep an eye out and be prepared.
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bbl .......gotta go walk my Lab
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Quoting TomTaylor:
hey Joe, heard we had some interesting radar echoes earlier over the socal desert
lol.....yup......bats or a volcano
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
and its been and still is in a area not condusive for development from a wave to a closed,stacked circulation, and is now trying to do that. one step in the development cycle at a time in this area. its area where the center is trying to form is over water, and the westerly track should keep the developing center off land for some time.
unless it re-locates....lol
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Quoting beell:
A first guess on steering for 90L:

Models bending a little to the N (right) after 90L clears the western tip of Cuba and rounds the western edge of the 700mb ridge. This should occur in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as the base of the east coast trough erodes the ridge-but not by much. Builds back in strong on Thursday/Friday which would lead to a turn back to the west and a "landfall" in S TX/NE MX. Quite a bit of uncertainty in this shallow "S" curve at this point. A WAG for now.



I agree with you beell about the High building back in after the Troft goes through but I see a possible 2 high pressures building back in and the storm goes between to 2 highs and hits somewhere near Pcola and the Big Bend of FL......
Thats if the 2nd High pressure makes a play into this setup.... But if not I see where it could be a S TX and NE MX land fall....


Taco :o)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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