July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting beell:
700mb vorticity centered over the wave axis.




Looking much better Beell.....and conditions are starting to ripen as well as Shear falls as old 90L advances to the West!
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2310. skook
Quoting RitaEvac:
Jason will be coming on saying WOW pretty soon





and taz will come on and say," plz stop quoting jason".
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Quoting FLdewey:
LMAO... models that far out are less than meaningless. You'd be better off giving a monkey the keys to Photoshop.

True story.

"Caution should be employed when using the forecasts made by the CFS. However, it is useful when monitored daily in assessing forecasts for the coming months, the confidence levels in these forecasts and in an assessment of how such long range models perform."

No, it's not "less than meaningless." If it was that, why would they bother putting out the product in the first place? It's not to be taken literally, but only as indicator of the pattern setting up during the heart of the season.
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2308. SQUAWK
Quoting DestinJeff:
NHC is authorized Take Backs, too, you know.

Hey they are the ones that play with crayons anyway.

Sorry was out for awhile. DOOM:CON is not elevated at the moment, but the Boys on the Board over at DOOM:CON are scheduled for a Conference Call at 1300 EST to discuss possible scenarios.


Is that 1700 ZULU?
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2307. tkeith
Quoting DestinJeff:
<<<<<<< Staring Contest on 3.

1. 2. 3.
ahhhh...&*$%$#, I blinkked
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2305. beell
700mb vorticity centered over the wave axis.

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Quoting RitaEvac:
I'll take it for the team, a 60mph storm right at my doorstep, need rain


if its slow movin its mine
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I guess some might call me out, but its looking more like to me that old 90L might become a player. I am playing it safe tho and not stating what kind of player..........LOL

I see it going a little more north say TX/LA are just my opinion though.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
the circulation right now looks to be forming at 19.3N and 77.0W..its easy to see on wv...its just to the west of the heavy convection starting to fire up between cuba and jamaica...

cloudburst2011 you will never find the COC on WV imagery we do not use WV to find the COC of tropical system/surface lows WV imagery looks at upper levels not surface you got that get it cleared I don't want to see you make that mistake again
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I'll take it for the team, a 60mph storm right at my doorstep, need rain
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Maybe a swing up over Cuba into Tampa Bay!!



NO NO don't suck me into that one with everyone just bacause i live in Tampa.........that aint even right Rita..........LOL
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I guess some might call me out, but its looking more like to me that old 90L might become a player. I am playing it safe tho and not stating what kind of player..........LOL


Maybe a swing up over Cuba into Tampa Bay!!
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I guess some might call me out, but its looking more like to me that old 90L might become a player. I am playing it safe tho and not stating what kind of player..........LOL
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Jason will be coming on saying WOW pretty soon
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey stormpetrol I see it near where you has it but you have it too far N I have it at 18N


i think its at 19.5
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Quoting muddertracker:


Nice job! Very clear explainations and clean writing!
Thank you very much!

And 2269, nice 852 hour forecast haha
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ex-90L has a very good spin right now !!!
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Quoting muddertracker:


I'm sure theirs a math formule to figure that one out
but I ant the right one to give you a correct answer
but i did run across this maybe it will help answer some other queastions that i saw here too

www.met.reading.ac.uk/~thermod/hurricane/pdf_pape rs/rotunno87.pdf
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hey stormpetrol I see it near where you has it but you have it too far N I have it at 18N
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Good lord man...You think that model can spit out the Powerball numbers for Wednesday??


In all seriousness however, that really could happen this year.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Interesting and dangerous setup starting to appear that cannot be ignored over the next month.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I've organized my thoughts on 90L in the blog I just wrote. Feel free to check it out.

Latest 850 mb vorticity suggests the greatest area of spin is just west of the strongest burst of convection.


Nice job! Very clear explainations and clean writing!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
If a center were to form, would be just North or NW of the western tip of Jamaica

if a center were to form as it is doing now it current location is as 18.5N 77.5W the vort at 925,850,700,500 would just about agree with me anyway in that location a ts will develop rapidly very rapidly in time remeber I said TS not TD remeber this are waters that wilma made it record for rapid development of course condition not as favored but favered enough
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Thy Kingdom come, Thy Don will come...
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2282. emcf30
Quoting FLdewey:
No take backs Jeff


Oh geez, I thought we agreed to take backs. Did we get over ruled.
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I've organized my thoughts on 90L in the blog I just wrote. Feel free to check it out.

Latest 850 mb vorticity suggests the greatest area of spin is just west of the strongest burst of convection.
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2280. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I wouldn't put stock into it right now considering its over a month out (lol), but it shows what type of pattern we will be dealing with a month or less from now - Several systems active at one time, all following almost the same path.
Thats my birthday too! Pattern looks to be interesting.
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Quoting muddertracker:
Link

LSU low cloud...you can def. see some wrapping up where vorticity is the highest...sort of inbetween Jamaica and that area of Cuba that sticks out on southeast side...


Wow, that image shows it clearly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting scott39:
Wheres my blood pressure meds???!!!


I wouldn't put stock into it right now considering its over a month out (lol), but it shows what type of pattern we will be dealing with a month or less from now - Several systems active at one time, all following almost the same path.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting RitaEvac:
I don't see the spin people are talking about


you dont necisarilly have to, u can just check the vorticity
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Link

LSU low cloud...you can def. see some wrapping up where vorticity is the highest...sort of inbetween Jamaica and that area of Cuba that sticks out on southeast side...
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2273. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wheres my blood pressure meds???!!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
Hurricane Camille 1969

This powerful, deadly, and destructive hurricane formed just west of the Cayman Islands on August 14. It rapidly intensified and by the time it reached western Cuba the next day it was a Category 3 hurricane. Camille tracked north-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico and became a Category 5 hurricane on August 16. The hurricane maintained this intensity until it made landfall along the Mississippi coast late on the 17th. Camille weakened to a tropical depression as it crossed Mississippi into western Tennessee and Kentucky, then it turned eastward across West Virginia and Virginia. The cyclone moved into the Atlantic on August 20 and regained tropical storm strength before becoming extratropical on the 22nd.

A minimum pressure of 26.84 inches was reported in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, which makes Camille the second most intense hurricane of record to hit the United States. The actual maximum sustained winds will never be known, as the hurricane destroyed all the wind-recording instruments in the landfall area. The estimates at the coast are near 200 mph. Columbia, Mississippi, located 75 miles inland, reported 120 mph sustained winds. A storm tide of 24.6 ft occurred at Pass Christian, Mississippi. The heaviest rains along the Gulf Coast were about 10 inches. However, as Camille passed over the Virginias, it produced a burst of 12 to 20 inch rains with local totals of up to 31 inches. Most of this rain occurred in 3 to 5 hours and caused catastrophic flash flooding.

The combination of winds, surges, and rainfalls caused 256 deaths (143 on the Gulf Coast and 113 in the Virginia floods) and $1.421 billion in damage. Three deaths were reported in Cuba.
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I don't see the spin people are talking about
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850 mb showing some good yellow, more than it had most of yesterday. Ex-90L or whatever is still on my radar. IMO it should be 10%.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
It appears a center might be forming around 19.5N/77W, ex 90L has a nice spin to it now imo.
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2266. Matt74
Quoting RitaEvac:
Gonna get REEEEEAAAAALLLLL interesting once this thing gets to western Cuba
I agree. I'm no expert but i think we need to watch this one closely.
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Quoting P451:


YES.

This is an amendment we need to add to Jeff's guide of take back protocol.






Seems to be some rotation in there. Would be nice to get a scat pass on this system. Surface obs have always detected a rotation but it always seemed incomplete - NW quad only - with all other quads being easterly winds.

Could be interesting later today.


Wait and watch the next 24hours.........if 90L is gonna mean anything at all the next 24hrs will tell us something i would think.
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2264. scott39
If the NHC thought that ex90L was not going to develope eventually....they would have killed it 24 hours ago.
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we mustn't get our hopes up with this one weve already had two it would rock THE CHART to get 3
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
2184. sarahjola 10:46 AM EDT on July 25, 2011

BTW, I miss-spoke when I used Humberto as an answer to your question; Humberto remained as a Cat 1 when it came ashore I believe and certainly not a major when it spun up quickly.


Here's another RI story in just about the same place that Humberto came ashore. Written by DRM. Still gives me chills. Link

Overnight, Audrey intensified rapidly, and more than doubled her forward speed from the 7 mph speed observed that afternoon. When residents of Cameron awoke on June 27, the escape routes had already been flooded by the storm surge. Audrey now packed top winds of 145-150 mph--an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane, the most powerful June hurricane on record. A massive storm surge of 12 feet swept through the bayous the morning of June 27, pushing inland over 25 miles. The final death toll will never be known, but it is thought 550 people--including over 100 children--perished in Audrey. It was America's deadliest hurricane disaster between the time of the New England Hurricane of 1938 (682 killed) and Hurricane Katrina of 2005 (1833 killed).

Comparison of Audrey and Rita
Why was Audrey so much deadlier than Hurricane Rita of 2005? Rita hit the same region of coast with weaker winds (Category 3, 115 mph), but a storm surge even higher (15 feet). Rita destroyed virtually 100% of Cameron, whereas Audrey destroyed 75% of the town. Nearly two years later, Cameron is mostly just concrete slabs and trailers, thanks to Rita. However, Rita caused only one direct death in Southwest Louisiana--a drowning in Lake Charles. The answer is preparedness. Rita was a massive Category 5 hurricane several days before landfall, giving people plenty of time to receive the warnings and evacuate. Warning systems are much better now than in 1957, and Cameron was deserted when Rita hit. But Audrey did something hurricane forecasters still fear could cause a high death toll in the future, despite our better warning systems--rapid intensification with a sudden forward speed increase overnight, bringing a much stronger hurricane to the coast far earlier than expected. If this nightmare scenario happens to one of our major cities in the future, another Audrey-like death toll could easily result.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.