July 22, 2011: A day of records
The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.
Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:
• Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
• Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
• Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
• Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
• New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)
Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.
Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:
• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)
The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).
Invest 90L
Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.
Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.
Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Add to the ignore list so you don't have to listen to him when he comes on the blog.
Surface convergence associated with 90L is responsible for much of the convection, though it is also being aided by upper diffluence east of the upper low in the western Caribbean.
HWRF brings it up to Category 1 strength.
Do you think that 90L will have a chance to develop once in the Gulf of Mexico? Any ULL's look to be there in 4-6 days or so?
I think you are asking something similar to my question.
94. spathy 6:20 PM GMT on July 23, 2011
Quoting Patrap:
Caribbean - Rainbow Loop
To get back to topic.
Is my delusional spin creating the convection to its North,where there is more avail moisture?
And to that point is said spin some sort of ULL?
Refer to early am pre muffin posts for delusional spin comments.
Spin location
64W 14N.
1. Will Don form out of 90L?
2. When will Don form?
3. Will we see Don before the end of July
Just asking opinions.
You are right about the HWRF. I remember a weak disturbance in June 2009 that the HWRF brought to around 930 mb as it made landfall near Tampa, FL. Nothing of any significance happened. I laugh when I think about it. It is a good thing the HWRF's model forecasts are often not right.
TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECTED US CITIES AS OF 2:00 PM EDT (7/22 HIGHS IN PARENTHESES)
WICHITA FALLS, TX: 100 (104)
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK: 97 (100)
AMARILLO, TX: 95 (100)
KANSAS CITY, MO: 100 (102)
ST. LOUIS, MO: 98 (101)
NEW YORK, NY: 100 (104)
NEWARK, NJ: 102 (108)
PHILADELPHIA, PA: 98 (103)
BALTIMORE, MD: 101 (108)
WASHINGTON, DC: 101 (102)
RICHMOND, VA: 101 (102)
RALEIGH, NC: 101 (103)
1.) Possibly, especially if it can get in the GOMEX.
2.) I think Don will form, if not out of 90L, sometime during the first week or so of August.
3.) If 90L develops, yes. If 90L doesn't develop, no.
I don't expect any development from the invest over the next few days, land interaction as it heads WNW will be an issue. Low level convergence will be a bit of an issue as it hangs over the east Caribbean dead zone. Additionally, upper level winds continue to indicate the upper level anticyclone is not centered overhead, but displaced. GFS and ECMWF 12z model initializations also reflect this. This is making for good divergence, however, it will keep shear an issue with this invest, despite how low shear values seem right now on the CIMSS shear map. Additionally, despite the large moisture plume associated with 90L, there is a bit of dry air to the SW which can be seen on WV and TPW imagery.
Looking at the 12z models, none of the models develop this invest at the moment. They continue to show a WNW track providing plenty of land interaction. They all agree the wave, or at least part of it, will end up in the gulf of Mexico, which could end up bringing some rain to the Texas/Louisiana region...but that's a ways out right now. None of the models appear to develop anything else. GFS is showing a strong wave emerging off Africa in 6 days from now
Just a sign that the African Wave train is heating up
DOOM!
SW CV
see you later
You where right Jasonweatherman2011 i knew you had this pegged from the start when it was way out in the ocean see I'm paying attintion Thanks
the GFDL doesn't show it moving due west. shows wnw and it doesn't take it all the way to the mexican coast in the latest run. shows it a couple hundred miles NW of the Yucatan.
HWRF doesn't take it due west either. it stops its run with the storm just to the NW of the Yucatan.
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
Patrap posted the bio of Camille who did more or less that. I don't remember any whacked DMIN explosion and DMAX death with her, though. Fact, I've never seen DMAX kill a system and DMIN re-animate it.
I'm not surprised especially with the way she lived, but may she RIP.
I also see the GFS develops a nice wave off of Africa later next week.
Intensity forcast keeps going up Patrap
its now up too 1014mb
Rotation is clearer than with 90L. Don't know if it's low level, though.
Well if memory serves Spathy,you and other credible bloggers have stated all along that 90L will struggle to hold together till Cuba or so.
My problem is...
Where the heck is 90L ?
Is it the spin I think I see?
64W 14N
Is it the convection to the North?
Is 90L splitting like Levi and others stated it might?
I am beginning to think there is no 90L.
Just a splitting wave of tropical energy.
How would I be wrong in that thought?
It's a small world, after all! lol
2=BETWEEN SUN & THUR
3=YES
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