July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting weatherh98:
It appears to me that 90l is relying on daily heating to provide the thunderstorms.... It can't yet sustain the thunderstorms
seems as if the trades pick in the day up so does its convection trades back off in the evening it dies pre he is waiting for the gulf
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5006
Good morning, everyone. Getting ready in a little bit to take my Golden down to the lake before people are there. The lake water is like getting into bath water, but it's wet. Anything new going on in the tropics?
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Quoting DestinJeff:


It is a technical trick.... can always switch to 50 view in the event of an emergency.

Only the lucky few on now will ever know.


Excellent!



Sounds like a GROUPIE thing............ROFLMAO
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Well, hasn't Dr. Masters gone on vacation?!

Quoting FLdewey:
So it is written.. so it shall be.

I feel a sudden urge to go shopping at Target.

Weird.


I still have the new tarps I bought last year.
My house sitters blew through the canned tuna supply tho while I was on vaca. I think because they were overfeeding the cats! And overfed my fish too, unfortunately, who struggled with ammonia and now appear back on the mend...
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Quoting FLdewey:
So it is written.. so it shall be.

I feel a sudden urge to go shopping at Target.

Weird.
they got cute packages nowadays overpriced themselves
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5006
It appears to me that 90l is relying on daily heating to provide the thunderstorms.... It can't yet sustain the thunderstorms
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...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09N38W TO 17N33W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO 21N BETWEEN 29W-37W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

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Good morning,

Excerpt 8 a.m. ...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 24N.

THIS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REACHES TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 30N70W ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N81W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE SE GULF PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 87W-92W.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HOLD STRONG ALONG 27N THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SW GULF S OF 20N W OF 95W.

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Quoting TampaSpin:



The CROWS i can take, its the BUZZARDS that haunt me!


They are alot tougher to eat that crows.

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Quoting FLdewey:
Is it 1 take back per season, or 1 per day? The latter would favor some of our more active bloggers.



+1 million
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Quoting emcf30:

I will go ahead and put my vote in for approval of 1 take back. SAVE THE CROWS.....



The CROWS i can take, its the BUZZARDS that haunt me!
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Quoting emcf30:


Hey Tampa, It was stated yesterday we are now allowed 1 " TAKE BACK " per season. LOL



Dang, that is awsome. But, i need more than one! Can i buy more than one cause i get at least 20 things wrong each season. Many would say i am ever correct!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


That was never ratified by a two-thirds majority.

Besides, nothing wrong with playing "winter rules" among friends, right?

I will go ahead and put my vote in for approval of 1 take back. SAVE THE CROWS.....
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Quoting TampaSpin:


HEy Jeff, there is no "TAKE BACKS" LOL!


Hey Tampa, It was stated yesterday we are now allowed 1 " TAKE BACK " per season. LOL
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I am preparing an official "Take Back" statement to release later, regarding my recent declaration that Don would arrive at 1700 today.

Turns out it was around 0530, just like normal.


HEy Jeff, there is no "TAKE BACKS" LOL!
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Corpus Christi Link

THE CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL INCREASES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING A TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. WHILE THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THIS FEATURE AN OPEN WAVE. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT.
EITHER WAY...DO EXPECT DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. WILL KEEP 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Lookin sickly this morning... 90L is pretty ragged too.


Good morning Dewey. I see your waking up to the mid 80s on the coast this morning with heat index in the mid 90s at 7 am is morning. Gonna be a hot one today.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011 Link

WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE TOWARD THE WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN AS MODELS BRING THE
NORTH END OF THE WAVE INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND SETX
COME FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE
ECMWF...BUT AM FAVORING THE GFS FOR NOW WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
POPS.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011 Link

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...DOMINANT H5 RIDGE WILL
BEGIN THE PERIOD CENTERED IN NORTH TEXAS...KEEPING HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS STILL SHOWING A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE NE US TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TEAR THE BOTTOM PORTION FROM THIS TROUGH AND
WRAP IT AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON
WHERE THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TEXAS...SO WILL HOLD POPS
DOWN FOR NOW FOR THURSDAY UNTIL MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE. OTHER
CONCERN IS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE
COAST OF HISPANIOLA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG THIS FEATURE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE CONTINUED TRACK OF THIS
WAVE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...SO HAVE KEPT INCREASED POP CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE.


I agree with the boys and girls there! Shear is forecast to become very low as the wave approaches the Western Caribbean. I am not trying to pump up 90L but, my best guess 90L will come back to some degree near the Western Caribbean moving into the GOM.
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011 Link

WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE TOWARD THE WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN AS MODELS BRING THE
NORTH END OF THE WAVE INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND SETX
COME FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE
ECMWF...BUT AM FAVORING THE GFS FOR NOW WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
POPS.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011 Link

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...DOMINANT H5 RIDGE WILL
BEGIN THE PERIOD CENTERED IN NORTH TEXAS...KEEPING HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS STILL SHOWING A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE NE US TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TEAR THE BOTTOM PORTION FROM THIS TROUGH AND
WRAP IT AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON
WHERE THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO TEXAS...SO WILL HOLD POPS
DOWN FOR NOW FOR THURSDAY UNTIL MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE. OTHER
CONCERN IS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE
COAST OF HISPANIOLA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DRAG THIS FEATURE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE CONTINUED TRACK OF THIS
WAVE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...SO HAVE KEPT INCREASED POP CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE.
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I really don't like where the Bermuda High has parked itself this past month, so far South.......this is not looking pretty for the SE for August and September if the Bermuda High does not move a little NE some, where it should be. fingers crossed!
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All depends on Timing of the Wave! But, if you look at the WRF.......it probably will move toward the Louisiana area. Most other models look just like this from the GFS which would block anything moving NORTH!






I have all the models up and running at my website if you would like to view!

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They still are talking about it at TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD SPREAD ACROSS
JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting TXHolly:


Small world. I live near Smith Lake.
<


I will jump in and say hi from Lumberton. Keeping an eye 90l since Bostiwick felt the need to mention it Friday night.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



LOL! I leave for INDY on Aug.2nd and gone for neary 2 weeks up there and visiting Hot Atlanta also. Sure hope the Heat breaks up there before hand as the GOLF clubs will be swinging nearly every day i am gone. That won't be too fun, but we will deal with it as does everyone else! You know the Global Warming people will put claims to this Heat Wave. LOL


Well I hope the heatwave will break by then. Seems I heard somewhere that the more northern places anyway would catch a break soon. I hope so. That's like us getting an ice storm. We didn't know what to do last time we had one in 97. And our power was out! Not fun.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I agree. I check my local temps and the temps at the lake area we like to go to about 100 miles to my north. Here it'll be 95. There 105. Thank you GOM. Lol.



LOL! I leave for INDY on Aug.2nd and gone for neary 2 weeks up there and visiting Hot Atlanta also. Sure hope the Heat breaks up there before hand as the GOLF clubs will be swinging nearly every day i am gone. That won't be too fun, but we will deal with it as does everyone else! You know the Global Warming people will put claims to this Heat Wave. LOL
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Quoting TampaSpin:


NICE, i am going on Vacaction to visit my family in Indiana coming of the heat and humidity of Florida into the furnance that someone left on coming out of Winter in Indiana. Most don't realize although high humidity, just how much the GOM and the Atlantic protects us from the ferious heat!


I agree. I check my local temps and the temps at the lake area we like to go to about 100 miles to my north. Here it'll be 95. There 105. Thank you GOM. Lol.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Well this is just going to be miserable for everyone. :(

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
359 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

VALID 12Z THU JUL 28 2011 - 12Z SUN JUL 31 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND PARTS OF THE
EAST...

THE SUBTROPICAL/MID-LATITUDE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS IS DEPICTED BY
ALL GUIDANCE TO BROADEN THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE
STRENGTHENING MOST SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD BERMUDA WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO SUSTAIN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ABOUT THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD.


NICE, i am going on Vacaction to visit my family in Indiana coming of the heat and humidity of Florida into the furnance that someone left on coming out of Winter in Indiana. Most don't realize although high humidity, just how much the GOM and the Atlantic protects us from the ferious heat!
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Hey Tx! Looks like a South Tx system or Mexico system probably as a rainmaker but the WRF model and the Shear forecast is somewhat looking better. Need to watch this yet as things this time of year can turn around very quickly!








I'm still going to watch it. Hadn't seen that model yet. Thanks. :) Nearly every NWS discussion I've read said that the wave needs to be watched except for Lake Charles (my local) who says the complete opposite of everyone else. I am confused. Lol

FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST ALLOWING
FOR NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN SUMMER
TIME NORMAL POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WE
WILL AT TIMES GET WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA...AND THE SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&
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Quoting sailfish01:
I agree, there may be more yet for 90L. Also the wave behind it also appears anemic this morning.


Things can turn around very quickly now this time of year! Amazing sometimes what 24hrs can do! Probably a 10% is about what i would give 90L currently too.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Morning Tampa, all, anyone. Lol. Looks like the mountains really did a number on out invest. I'm still hoping the wave will give us rain. Depending on who you want to believe that's not a given either. Sigh.

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO


GMZ089-241530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO 7430 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 27N/28N. THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE SE GULF LATE TUE AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF WED BEFORE DISSIPATING THU.

$$



Hey Tx! Looks like a South Tx system or Mexico system probably as a rainmaker but the WRF model and the Shear forecast is somewhat looking better. Need to watch this yet as things this time of year can turn around very quickly!






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Well this is just going to be miserable for everyone. :(

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
359 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

VALID 12Z THU JUL 28 2011 - 12Z SUN JUL 31 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND PARTS OF THE
EAST...

THE SUBTROPICAL/MID-LATITUDE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS IS DEPICTED BY
ALL GUIDANCE TO BROADEN THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE
STRENGTHENING MOST SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD BERMUDA WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO SUSTAIN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO ABOUT THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWARD.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Good Morning everyone! Don't be surprised if the Wave 90L makes somewhat of a comeback! The Wave is still there as Shear is forecast to drop to near nothing as it approaches the Western Caribbean. Still need to keep 1 eye open as there is 1 model the WRF that is showing support for development near the Western Tip of Cuba! Wait and watch the next couple of days! I know many of you don't follow models and use naked eye for forecasting. Again, the models seem to have won this one AGAIN!
I agree, there may be more yet for 90L. Also the wave behind it also appears anemic this morning.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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