July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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so basically the atmosphere is too stable???????????
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1110. nigel20
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Quoting P451:


Why would they bother? Unless they want to try to learn how it's firing convection in what they consider water temps too low to do so. Seems like a wasted mission to me.



Honestly, the NHC has to get off the water temp thing as do all forecasters. We've watched multiple systems do just fine in sub-26C temps - especially late season East Atlantic storms - that they are reluctant to classify because they aren't in what they consider warm enough temps. Apparently, they are warm enough.


Post 986 I put a 96 hour loop together of Dora. Shows it's reluctance to cease convection nicely. It's doing what Bret did.


As you said, I assume they're still interested in the storm because it is still firing convection around the center in an environment it shouldn't be. It would of been nice to have recon a few days ago when Dora was pushing Cat 5. I saw that 96hr loop, good job on it.
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convergence and divergence= air moving and lifting and dropping?
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1107. nigel20
If the high continues in this position, there will be a lot of problems for the Caribbean and central america in the coming weeks.
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Quoting IceCoast:


I'm not sure I'm quite educated enough to give you a great answer, but i have my thoughts. As you said, land has been a major inhibiting factor up to this point, but if you're trying to look at why the atmospheric conditions aren't allowing a LLC to develop, there's a few things we can see.

1. Wind shear looks to have increased slightly, and is hitting the system from the east, the opposite direction the system is moving. With a system such as cindy, the storm was moving with the shear which wasn't as disruptive to the formation.


2. The system is lacking convection likely due to bad convergence/divergence.


thank you very much ice. is there an easy answer on how to create convergence and divergence? i will go look up if there isnt ...lol....thanks
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1105. nigel20
Good morning everyone
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Dora is over 21-22 Celsius Water now.
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Maybe just a simple matter of weak but rather large T-wave interacting with land and decent shear to its north. Just not in the right place at the right time (i.e., open water, low shear, moist environment). Earlier dry air I think was an inhibiting factor. Just never got going.
Anyway off to get more water for recycling aquarium.
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Well so far this thing has organized during two DMINs and fallen apart during two DMAXs. Shows that the diurnal cycles aren't the only factors in weak waves. I bet it comes back around DMIN again. Daytime heating is seeming to help this system, probably because its proximity land helps land-based thunderstorms pop up during said day time heating? I don't really know how to explain this one. :/ Some help/input would be appreciated.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

so whats the major inhibiting factor, not allowing 90L to form a LLC? Atmospheric Conditions as opposed to Land Interaction.


I'm not sure I'm quite educated enough to give you a great answer, but i have my thoughts. As you said, land has been a major inhibiting factor up to this point, but if you're trying to look at why the atmospheric conditions aren't allowing a LLC to develop, there's a few things we can see.

1. Wind shear looks to have increased slightly, and is hitting the system from the east, the opposite direction the system is moving. With a system such as cindy, the storm was moving with the shear which wasn't as disruptive to the formation.


2. The system is lacking convection likely due to bad convergence/divergence.


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Quoting hurricaneben:
Land interaction will probably prevent anything major organization-wise with Invest 90L over the next day or two but once it enters the Gulf Of Mexico by Monday or Tuesday, then it could really get cranking due to abnormally warm SSTs and we should be looking at Tropical Storm Don, maybe even Hurricane Don before landfall in NE Mexico/South Texas. It could also build more North but models keep it going in the direction of the SW Gulf Coast/Mexico at this time.


Conditions may not be too favorable in the Gulf of Mexico due to strong easterly flow around the "death ridge". It would maybe have a day or two to strengthen before that happens.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Land interaction will probably prevent anything major organization-wise with Invest 90L over the next day or two but once it enters the Gulf Of Mexico by Monday or Tuesday, then it could really get cranking due to abnormally warm SSTs and we should be looking at Tropical Storm Don, maybe even Hurricane Don before landfall in NE Mexico/South Texas. It could also build more North but models keep it going in the direction of the SW Gulf Coast/Mexico at this time.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 405 Comments: 675
Yes
Yes
No
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


There is no real, well-defined low pressure area. Until then, 90L will continue to fire convection and it will die down, fire and die down, etc.
thank you. does well defined mean a tight closed low? or broad closed low? does the low need to be closed to have a well defined surface circulation?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


There is no real, well-defined low pressure area. Until then, 90L will continue to fire convection and it will die down, fire and die down, etc.


Thats what I'm seeing also right now its still just a wave traveling through could just stay a wave but then again?
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
why does it lack convection? what is inhibiting it from firing?


There is no real, well-defined low pressure area. Until then, 90L will continue to fire convection and it will die down, fire and die down, etc.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Quoting IceCoast:


Touche. For some reason the site I was using only went out to 144 hours and looked like it dropped between 120-144.


you're at the raleighwx site, useful but doesn't go out as far. You also where probably looking at the 00z, this is the 06z run - more recent.
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someone was asking about this the other day
just incase your still looking this is what i found

Atlantic ACE Index and USA and Caribbean Landfalling

Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all....

It's easy to spot BECAUSE it lacks convection.... lol

Yet another amazing transformation by 90L.... guess it hit the second wall last night....
why does it lack convection? what is inhibiting it from firing?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, the NOGAPS doesn't drop it. 180 hours out shows strengthening vort.
Link


Touche. For some reason the site I was using only went out to 144 hours and looked like it dropped between 120-144.
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Quoting IceCoast:


Looks like it drops it soon after. My untrained eyes didn't see any significant development on the ECMWF, GFS, or CMC. NOGAPS is probably picking up on the wave ~37W. In it's defense, it does have good vorticity.

so whats the major inhibiting factor, not allowing 90L to form a LLC? Atmospheric Conditions as opposed to Land Interaction.
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Quoting IceCoast:


Looks like it drops it soon after. My untrained eyes didn't see any significant development on the ECMWF, GFS, or CMC. NOGAPS is probably picking up on the wave ~37W. In it's defense, it does have good vorticity.


No, the NOGAPS doesn't drop it. 180 hours out shows strengthening vort. This is the wave just off Africa that you referred too.
Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
At this time, the NOGAPS is the only model showing development east of the Islands.


Looks like it drops it soon after. My untrained eyes didn't see any significant development on the ECMWF, GFS, or CMC. NOGAPS is probably picking up on the wave ~37W. In it's defense, it does have good vorticity.
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Good morning everyone.

90L looks horrible this morning, and it is dealing with a lot of land interaction. It won't have a chance to develop until it reaches the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. We'll then have to monitor closely for the possibility of TD #4/Don. We also need to closely monitor that wave out near 35-40W. It has a lot of vorticity and it has a well-defined inverted V signature. The NOGAPS model is the only run forecasting development, but it will need to be watched.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
So far, GFS shows anything developing in the North Atlantic Basin thru August 9th. And the ECMWF is in the same boat thru the next ten days.
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At this time, the NOGAPS is the only model showing development east of the Islands.
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1082. JRRP


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Dora is still hanging on somehow. They're sending recon in today, lol.

TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011

DORA HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION
...AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE DORA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEASURE THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER 21 DEG C WATERS...IT WILL
PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION MUCH LONGER...AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE
TONIGHT. AS NOTED EARLIER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION DISSIPATING WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DORA IS
BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
PREDICTIONS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

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1080. JRRP
as i said yesterday
NGP is showing TS near antilles
Link
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btw according to the steering maps 90L is done movin WNW just W now and slowing down
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
Quoting TampaSpin:


I agree with the boys and girls there! Shear is forecast to become very low as the wave approaches the Western Caribbean. I am not trying to pump up 90L but, my best guess 90L will come back to some degree near the Western Caribbean moving into the GOM.
thats what my thought process has been,but 90L looking pretty sickly this am.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No,it is a big boat used to haul cargo back and forth. Four from East End and two Hondurans.

oh wow ok and also I saw a cruse ship docked on the dock first I hear of this
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
last week sunday
did they say what kinda boat they were on cause u know these people sometimes multiple people on a boat and the boat is a 2 maned boat
A 37-foot vessel, the Miss Janice, with six crew on board has gone missing on its way to Swan Island.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
last week sunday
did they say what kinda boat they were on cause u know these people sometimes multiple people on a boat and the boat is a 2 maned boat
No,it is a big boat used to haul cargo back and forth. Four from East End and two Hondurans.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Well, both the blog and my computer are slow today, so I'll be back here in the afternoon. Have a nice day everybody.
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1073. Thrawst
Quoting BahaHurican:
Looking at the last 2 hours of imagery, the most amazing part of this is that there is NO rain falling in the Bahamas / TCI according to the satellite....



Ehh, we need rain! been too dry recently.
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last week sunday
did they say what kinda boat they were on cause u know these people sometimes multiple people on a boat and the boat is a 2 maned boat
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Hey stormwatcher how is thing over there news wise I am in Jam for vacation and no idea what goin on at home
How long have you been gone ? 6 missing in a boat left for Honduras and should have been there Monday and search& rescue are looking for them.Link
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You have a good day too. By this afternoon everyone will be saying 90L on the way to development. :D

Hey stormwatcher how is thing over there news wise I am in Jam for vacation and no idea what goin on at home
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9548
Quoting BahaHurican:
We finally have gotten some rain since July started, but we're still also below average. Maybe 90L will be good to both of us... lol

Anyway, I gotta run - it's almost 10 a.m.! Ya'll enjoy your Sunday, and see u later...
You have a good day too. By this afternoon everyone will be saying 90L on the way to development. :D
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Puerto Rico might be glad but Cayman Islands is still DRY .Rain So Far This Year 6.96 in.
We finally have gotten some rain since July started, but we're still also below average. Maybe 90L will be good to both of us... lol

Anyway, I gotta run - it's almost 10 a.m.! Ya'll enjoy your Sunday, and see u later...
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
25kts-1013mb-17.5N-70.0W.
thanks
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looks as if the pouch is still alive just hanging on persistant little bugger prico might get heavy thunderstorms this afternoon
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Quoting BahaHurican:

I wouldn't be surprised, especially since the NHC hasn't dropped their 10%...

I'm sure u guys are glad 4 the break...

I'm still kinda hopin' we'll get some afternoon rain out of this. We're better off than we were, but still could use the rain.
Puerto Rico might be glad but Cayman Islands is still DRY .Rain So Far This Year 6.96 in.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting blsealevel:
I think well see 90l fire up again today
as day time heating kicks in still keeping an eye on this one forsure had to put on my glass's but its still their.

I wouldn't be surprised, especially since the NHC hasn't dropped their 10%...

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think it has moved just far enough west for Puerto Rico to not receive any rain. It keeps getting overcast here but so far no rain.
I'm sure u guys are glad 4 the break...

I'm still kinda hopin' we'll get some afternoon rain out of this. We're better off than we were, but still could use the rain.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I'm confused. I always thought that these waves of low pressure fired up during diurnal max and then died down during diurnal min. This seems to be doing the opposite.
Gaston did the same thing last year in the Caribbean and he never did get going again after crossing the island chain although he was a TS entering the Caribbean.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting hurricaneeye:


Lat --- longitude?
25kts-1013mb-17.5N-70.0W.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.