July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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1211. Tazmanian
5:37 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA IS
PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.



same old two not even worth posting
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1210. aussiecold
5:36 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
something is spinning out off Africa coats
Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
1209. CybrTeddy
5:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA IS
PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
1207. Stormchaser2007
5:35 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Wouldn't consider the CMC in that category also.


Its still not "GFS/ECM grade", but its been much better than it has in the past. There have been significantly less ghost storms this year than I can ever remember.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
1206. CybrTeddy
5:34 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
IMO 90L will be at 0% shortly.

Tropics are in for a full the next week.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
1205. HimacaneBrees
5:34 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
Quoting MrCowan:


I've seen that infamous chart before.


yeah I really like "THE CHART"
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1005
1204. Slamguitar
5:32 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:



poll time

A 10%

B 0%

C they drop it from the two



A.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
1203. CybrTeddy
5:31 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Doesn't fall into the "reliable" category.

Absolutely bombed with 90L.


Would consider the CMC in that category also.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
1202. hurricaneben
5:30 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


I wonder if it would go NW into the bahamas, form, and pull a Katrina. LOL


Hopefully it doesn't devastate New Orleans again, Florida will probably handle a weak CAT I which doesn't cause too much damage but nobody wants a large major hurricane which puts whole cities underwater.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 421 Comments: 679
1201. JrWeathermanFL
5:27 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
Quoting scott39:
Lets Hope not!!


The bahamas would be a great place to form.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2532
1200. scott39
90L is backwards...its having its Dmax now!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
1198. scott39
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


I wonder if it would go NW into the bahamas, form, and pull a Katrina. LOL
Lets Hope not!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting scott39:
What % do you think the NHC will keep 90L at 2? I say 10%


I wonder if it would go NW into the bahamas, form, and pull a Katrina. LOL
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2532
A
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1195. scott39
Quoting ElConando:


I think it will be dropped to less than 0 if not dropped all together. If the NHC believes it can make it into the GOM in some form then it may be still up.
Thats basically what I meant on an earlier post. Convection is on the upswing.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting scott39:
What % do you think the NHC will keep 90L at 2? I say 10%
Quoting Tazmanian:



poll time

A 10%

B 0%

C they drop it from the two



Near 0% or C.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32853
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Do you see anything happening in the first 2 weeks of August?


We probably won't see much of anything in the first week or so of August, but after that, it should get active.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32853
Quoting scott39:
What % do you think the NHC will keep 90L at 2? I say 10%


I think it will be dropped to less near zero if not dropped all together. If the NHC believes it can make it into the GOM in some form then it may be still up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Neither, its going to be

2011: Fairly active start, lots of activity.


Do you see anything happening in the first 2 weeks of August?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2532
Quoting scott39:
What % do you think the NHC will keep 90L at 2? I say 10%



poll time

A 10%

B 0%

C they drop it from the two

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Is this season going to be like 2010: slow start, many storms
Or 2009: 3 storms at once, not a lot of activity


Neither, its going to be

2011: Fairly active start, lots of activity.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32853
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The NOGAPS develops a system near the lesser Antilles by the end of this week.


Doesn't fall into the "reliable" category.

Absolutely bombed with 90L.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
One year ago...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Is this season going to be like 2010: slow start, many storms
Or 2009: 3 storms at once, not a lot of activity
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2532
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
1179

Thats NGOAPS.
Had an error, since fixed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1179

Thats NGOAPS.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2532
1182. scott39
What % do you think the NHC will keep 90L at 2? I say 10%
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912


Reminds of that lemonade strawberry drink from McDonald.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrCowan:


WOW, that's pretty amazing right there, perhaps this season will be a quite one after all, =). Also, pardon my ignorance, but isn't in August when things are suppose to pick up?




This very informative chart should help.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1005
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The NOGAPS develops a system near the lesser Antilles by the end of this week.
NOt very Good At Prognosticating tropical Systems - NOGAPS
;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


GFS goes to August 9th without anything developing.


The NOGAPS develops a system near the lesser Antilles by the end of this week.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
Quoting Autistic2:
When counting tropical storms do you count them only once?

I mean does a hurricane also get counted as a Depression and then a storm or for record counting is it only counted as the maximum strength it obtained?

Depression 1 storm 1 hurricane 1

Or just Hurricane 1?
Just hurricane 1.

The same system only gets counted once at it's peak. Even if a system becomes a hurricane, then weakens, say, due to shear, down to a mere wave, and then re-strengthens, it will retain the number (e.g. 6th Atlantic system) and name. (UNLESS the system crosses Central America, then it would have the number/name of the next system in the new basin.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When counting tropical storms do you count them only once?

I mean does a hurricane also get counted as a Depression and then a storm or for record counting is it only counted as the maximum strength it obtained?

Depression 1 storm 1 hurricane 1

Or just Hurricane 1?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Little system near 48W looks interesting. See the loop.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The jungle-yard is enjoying the 300% of normal rainfall for the last 2 weeks.



*atmo puts a fan on the roof pointing to the northwest*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
@ TAZ,

And how exactly do you think the image derives the SAL? It shows dry air all over the world, it's not always dust from the Sahara that is depicted. His implication that it implies dry air, while not entirely accurate, is far from an incorrect statement.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1170. txjac
Nice rain you got going there Pat ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrCowan:


WOW, that's pretty amazing right there, perhaps this season will be a quite one after all, =). Also, pardon my ignorance, but isn't in August when things are suppose to pick up?


The middle of August.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90% of the jungle-yard tamed, then ran out of gas at the same time the sky opened up. I'll cut in the rain, but not a deluge...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1167. emcf30
Quoting Autistic2:
I googled it but could not find an answer. What is a well-defined inverted V signature?

An inverted-V signature is just that -- the low cloud lines (and low level winds) create the appearance of an inverted V in satellite imagery. Here's a slide-show of the characteristics of a tropical wave, including the inverted-v shape
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1156 and 1159

Thanks

now I understand one tiny bit of hurricane formation better. I wish we could get a week storm here in NE Fl. The local corn fields are 6 feet tall and all brown. The lake behind my house is almost dry, but the ponds on the golf cores are overflowing, HUMM..... How does that work I wonder!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1165. scott39
Looks like 90L is going to put a daytime show on for us.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


okay taz sorry, my fault. but it is funny.. 90L doesn't look good at all. I had said it was gonna be a TD by this evening, guess not. Crow is a good meal if it's cooked correctly. Now I included some tropical weather talk.




thats ok this becarefull on wht you post there a best time and not the best time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting P451:


Why would they bother? Unless they want to try to learn how it's firing convection in what they consider water temps too low to do so. Seems like a wasted mission to me.
Is a specific set of missions for the hurricane intensity research project.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/HFP2011/HFP_2011.pdf
See page 32.

Specifically:
"Links to Operations:
In-situ observations are rarely, if ever, available in eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones decaying over cooler waters. The intensity of these systems is typically estimated by the Dvorak technique, supplemented by scatterometer observations, however, there is some evidence that the Dvorak technique overestimates the intensity of weakening systems, thus overstating the hazard to marine interests. The purpose of this experiment is to obtain in-situ observations of decaying tropical cyclones to better calibrate existing methods of estimating tropical cyclone intensity over cold water.

Mission Description:
The flight strategy is to obtain two standard (105 n mi radius) alpha patterns (rotated) on each of 3 flights over a 3-4 day period. Each flight requires the SFMR, 18 AXBTs for measuring SST, and about 10 dropsondes. AXBTs are to be deployed at turn points, mid-radial points, and in combination with
dropsondes at the maximum wind. Drops would be made at the corner points of one alpha pattern and in the max wind band of two of the four penetrations of each alpha pattern. In addition, a center drop would be made during each penetration to provide surface pressure.

If the storm were too far away to do two, one alpha pattern would be acceptable. SFMR is critical for the success of the mission, but should it fail or be otherwise unavailable a mission could be conducted with a significantly enhanced number of dropsondes.

Three flights would occur over a 3-4 day period. First flight is in a hurricane just prior to reaching the SST gradient. Second flight is in or just beyond the gradient (presumably now TC is a TS), and last flight is over the cold water as the TS is decaying toward TD status. Depending on forward speed, flights would occur on consecutive days, or perhaps there would be a down day. Flights would likely take off at the same time of day each day, but no particular take off time is required. If possible, flight levels should be constant over the course of the flights - 850 mb is the preferred level.

"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1162. aquak9
All bloggers appear to be healthy and in good spirits at the moment, MrCowan.

Welcome to Wunderground. But fair warning- it's addictive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban


okay taz sorry, my fault. but it is funny.. 90L doesn't look good at all. I had said it was gonna be a TD by this evening, guess not. Crow is a good meal if it's cooked correctly. Now I included some tropical weather talk.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1005

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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