July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I would be too. That image you have posted before shows the MDR anomalies high.


This is impressive to say the least...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting TomTaylor:
.


That portion is not the anomaly forecast...

FULL forecast
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Experimental Genesis Probs kick something up by the second week of August.

Not sure many on here will be able to wait that long and escape with their sanity. lol



You realize that doesn't product doesn't "kick up" anything at all right? That product is only ran once and is designed to show the anomalous likelihood of something forming in one month from the model run time...that means the product is trying to show you an increased likelihood in activity over the MDR in mid August...its not showing us we can expect a storm on August 20th over the MDR.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Information from another forum indicated the experts at the NHC conference were concerned about the anomalies setting up in the MDR.



I would be too. That image you have posted before shows the MDR anomalies high.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Quoting JLPR2:


Seems that area east of the islands will be a hotspot for activity later down the road. :\


More than likely...

ECMWF pressure anoms along with precip anoms indicate a more enhanced CV season than previously thought.

ECMWF OP:


EUROSIP:
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting sunlinepr:


Something sure wants to form back there, possibly Invest 91L?
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1252. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Experimental Genesis Probs kick something up by the second week of August.

Not sure many on here will be able to wait that long and escape with their sanity. lol





Seems that area east of the islands will be a hotspot for activity later down the road. :\
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Information from another forum indicated the experts at the NHC conference were concerned about the anomalies setting up in the MDR.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
1250. GetReal
Quoting Levi32:
Funny how one wave failing to develop will make folks start second-guessing how active August will be lol.


Yep... That about sums it up Levi!
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Quoting Levi32:


Maybe. It should still be watched, though overall development chances have been low this whole time. It needs to get away from land. It could be a rainmaker for portion of Texas at any rate, which would be nice.

Levi what about the tropical wave near 40W? it has some good spin to it. where is that one going and do you think it will develop
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You guys are easily fooled. Just sayin'....
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
For the record, no one (especially myself) said this season was a bust...

Intensity guidance before 90L was unofficially discontinued.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946


Just an exhalation... Everything vanished...
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1244. Patrap
It matters not what any Human thinks,,the Atmospheric Forces in the tropics dictate the System,,not Human thought.

All we do is observe the forces as the Systems evolve and try to predict their outcome downstream in time.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



True, but August is the meat of the season. Some people will get a bit antsy and "cancel" the season if they don't see something by mid/late August. It's happened before.
September is the peak of the season. Thats when the progression of lows comes off of Africa.
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1242. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Levi, Do you see potiential for 90L once it gets in the western Caribbean/GOM?


Maybe. It should still be watched, though overall development chances have been low this whole time. It needs to get away from land. It could be a rainmaker for portion of Texas at any rate, which would be nice.
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Quoting Levi32:
Funny how one wave failing to develop will make folks start second-guessing how active August will be lol.


I agree with you Levi, some in here say it is a bust for the season..... I my self am "Not" ready to even write off 90L.... I'm thinking when the wave gets closer to the Gulf it could be something. We just need to wait and see thats all.....


Taco :o)
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CSU Hurricane forecast will be available Wednesday, August 3rd.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
2008 - Edouard developed in early-August during a downward phase. I think we could see another Bret like situation off the US coast before too long.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
Quoting Levi32:
Funny how one wave failing to develop will make folks start second-guessing how active August will be lol.


And to that point the wave was never expected to develop during this time frame lol. I still think Tuesday would be the day when 90l could start showing signs of developing.
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1237. scott39
Levi, Do you see potiential for 90L once it gets in the western Caribbean/GOM?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6885
Next thing to keep an eye on would be PO9L...

Pronounced moisture buckle.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
1235. 7544
i tought 90l has been deacvtivated no more new models runs
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Given the high SST, no activity seems to be a temporary state. When something develops in the GOM, there's a lot of 'fuel' to keep it going. I hope that it forms near the coast and lands quickly as a TS or Cat 1, bringing nice rain but not too much damage.

Meanwhile, I just made a pitcher of fresh lemonade with mint. Help yourself.
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1233. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:



same old two not even worth posting
If the NHC still says 10%....then they are looking ahead even further than 48 hours. IMO
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6885
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I'd be very surprised as well. August had the looks of an extremely active month not too long ago.


Y wont it be?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2511
1231. MrCowan
Quoting Levi32:
Funny how one wave failing to develop will make folks start second-guessing how active August will be lol.



HA, excellent point there, Levi. You've gotta love the human mind, if you know what I mean?
Member Since: July 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
1230. MrCowan
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Interested to see what the new Hurricane forecasts will show. While there appear to be signs of a very active ASO, there also appear to be some negative factors as well.


Such as?
Member Since: July 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
1229. Levi32
Funny how one wave failing to develop will make folks start second-guessing how active August will be lol.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I would be surprised actually if we don't get a system until August 20th, I think we'll be seeing another storm probably by the 10th.


I'd be very surprised as well. August had the looks of an extremely active month not too long ago.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



True, but August if the meat of the season. Some people will get a bit antsy and "cancel" the season if they don't see something by mid/late August. It's happened before.


I would be surprised actually if we don't get a system until August 20th, I think we'll be seeing another storm probably by the 10th.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Somehow we survived the time between Arlene and Bret.

If we survived the 29 days between the start of the season and the first storm, we can survive a week or two of no activity.
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1224. JRRP
-
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.
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1222. nigel20
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1221. P451
Quoting hurricaneben:


Hopefully it doesn't devastate New Orleans again, Florida will probably handle a weak CAT I which doesn't cause too much damage but nobody wants a large major hurricane which puts whole cities underwater.


Katrina was a weak Cat 1 when it crossed south Florida. There was plenty of damage as a result.

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1220. MrCowan
Quoting HimacaneBrees:




This very informative chart should help.


I've seen that infamous chart before.
Member Since: July 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Experimental Genesis Probs kick something up by the second week of August.

Not sure many on here will be able to wait that long and escape with their sanity. lol





Somehow we survived the time between Arlene and Bret.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Pretty powerful downward pulse coming in, if that verifies we probably won't see much development until the 10th of August or so.


Experimental Genesis Probs kick something up by the second week of August.

Not sure many on here will be able to wait that long and escape with their sanity. lol



Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
goodbye to invest 90L
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2:00 update says no significant development AS IT INTERACTS WITH CUBA AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 2. What about after that?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2511
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
As most know, the MJO isn't the deciding factor, but it does play a role...

FWIW



Pretty powerful downward pulse coming in, if that verifies we probably won't see much development until the 10th of August or so.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
Just peeking in. I see the NHC let 90L at 10%. Don't get angry about it. At least it's something to track.
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As most know, the MJO isn't the deciding factor, but it does play a role...

FWIW

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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