July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
no more invest 90L I WAS RIGHT!!


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Everywhere except WU.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
sorry I have reading problems.

Happy belated birthday btw


Thanks.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't think it will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico either. I said that it should reach the NW Caribbean and then enter the Gulf. As you said, the ridge should build back in strong again, thus allowing for a westward movement in the southern part of the Mexico.
sorry, I have reading problems.

Happy belated birthday btw
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Quoting SouthALWX:
MJO is influential through the entire season, and I might suggest ESPECIALLY in the peaks... Sometimes all a system needs to get going is a little extra push. MJO is often that push. And in the peak where there are many seeds vs early and late with fewer seeds .... the peak sees this extra push realized as a storm much more often.

Quoting atmoaggie:
Umm, a favorable MJO during peak season can be the difference between having 3 systems spin up or 1.


Of course the MJO is influential throughout the entire season. What I'm trying to say is it's most influential during the beginning and end of the season when storms really need the extra boost due to the otherwise less favorable conditions over the basin.

There's an image Levi created showing where the MJO was during every single June storm we've had in the Atlantic basin since around 1970, when the MJO records begin. I don't have the image, but it goes to show that all, except one, June storm formed when the MJO was over our region. During the peak of the season this is certainly not the case since we see storms pop up all the time without the MJO being in our area. This just goes to show that the MJO's influence is far more important during the beginning and end of the season.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I don't think it will reach the NW Gulf. It may gain a little more latitude as the ridge is weakened slightly, but the ridge will build in strong again, so t should stay in the southern half of the gulf.


I don't think it will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico either. I said that it should reach the NW Caribbean and then enter the Gulf. As you said, the ridge should build back in strong again, thus allowing for a westward movement in the southern part of the Mexico.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258
Quoting TomTaylor:
I don't think it will reach the NW Gulf. It may gain a little more latitude as the ridge is weakened slightly, but the ridge will build in strong again, so t should stay in the southern half of the gulf.


Hey you! SHUSH! Lol. I found a discussion I like. Lol. Well part of it anyway. You're probably right but still a girl can dream. ;) just pickin' at ya.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
202 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

VALID 12Z WED JUL 27 2011 - 12Z SUN JUL 31 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT FROM THE CENTRAL US TO PARTS OF THE EAST...

A SUBTROPICAL/MID-LATITUDE UPPER HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE
S-CENTRAL US IS SHOW BY ALL GUIDANCE TO BROADEN THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE WHILE STRENGTHENING MOST SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD TO THE ERN
US AND TOWARD BERMUDA. THIS WOULD SUSTAIN EXCESSIVE HEAT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWARD...ALBEIT WITH
SOME PCPN RELIEF OVER THE GULF COAST INTO TX WITH TROPICAL WAVE
MOISTURE.
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For a Category 5 hurricane to develop, you need perfect conditions. Not slightly perfect or anything below that. They need to be absolutely, positively, 100% perfect.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258
1304. beell
Ok, Jason, lol. Ya got me there. X90L/Tropical wave.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16726
Looks like 90L is taking a break...for now. It probably will surprise us again and soon.
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
no more invest 90L off the map!!

yes but remember weather underground is not an offical source of NHC information NHC has not Deactivated 90L I have seen this happen before but has been reactivated on Wunderground there after
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1301. txjac
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
no more invest 90L off the map!!



It just disappeared for a little bit ...will show back up
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Quoting beell:
90L still alive at 700mb.



Not so much at 850mb.


Very much so alive at 925mb I just checked it
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Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
no more invest 90L I WAS RIGHT!!

bonk YOU ARE WRONG STILL ACTIVE
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1296. beell
90L still alive at 700mb.



Not so much at 850mb.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16726
MJO is influential through the entire season, and I might suggest ESPECIALLY in the peaks... Sometimes all a system needs to get going is a little extra push. MJO is often that push. And in the peak where there are many seeds vs early and late with fewer seeds .... the peak sees this extra push realized as a storm much more often.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
alright. Just looked like a lot of bloggers were beginning to worry about the entire month of August just because 90L feel apart.

Just trying to counter this attitude. Only real thing that looks unfavorable over August is the MJO. However I believe the MJO is not as influential during the peak of the season as it is during the beginning and end of the season.


I only post information. Very rarely I will speculate on a seasonal outlook. If I post something that looks unfavorable for the season and someone decides to make a crack about how I'm determining the season will bust, that's not my problem and I could care less what they say.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting TomTaylor:
alright. Just looked like a lot of bloggers were beginning to worry about the entire month of August just because 90L feel apart.

Just trying to counter this attitude. Only real thing that looks unfavorable over August is the MJO. However I believe the MJO is not as influential during the peak of the season as it is during the beginning and end of the season.
Umm, a favorable MJO during peak season can be the difference between having 3 systems spin up or 1.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Can we see a Cat 5 this year?


Category Five storms can happen any year. Just need perfect upper-air conditions and a heat source.

Cat5's can happen in years like 2005 which was an extremely active year, or in years like 1992 which was a very inactive year.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Didn't really imply that it was gospel...

Just cracked a joke that if it was right some would't handle the wait.

alright. Just looked like a lot of bloggers were beginning to worry about the entire month of August just because 90L feel apart.

Just trying to counter this attitude. Only real thing that looks unfavorable over August is the MJO. However I believe the MJO is not as influential during the peak of the season as it is during the beginning and end of the season.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Overall, 90L has a low chance of development. However, it should enter the NW Caribbean tomorrow night into Tuesday, and it should slow down. This may be enough to allow for development as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, but, 90L has a lot of work to do before becoming a tropical cyclone.
I don't think it will reach the NW Gulf. It may gain a little more latitude as the ridge is weakened slightly, but the ridge will build in strong again, so t should stay in the southern half of the gulf.

edit- nvm misread
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1288. Levi32
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I thought it was from the wave at 40W that has some more convection.


No, that comes across ahead of what the NOGAPS develops.
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Can we see a Cat 5 this year?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2452
Quoting TomTaylor:
You're right, my bad. Either way its saying there's an increased likelihood of a storm on August 20th over the MDR. However, it says absolutely nothing about the activity over the month prior as you were implying.


Didn't really imply that it was gospel...

Just cracked a joke that if it was right some would't handle the wait.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


That portion is not the anomaly forecast...

FULL forecast
You're right, my bad. Either way its saying there's an increased likelihood of a storm on August 20th over the MDR. However, it says absolutely nothing about the activity over the month prior as you were implying.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody know why there have been no recent model runs on 90L?


No runs since yesterday at 18z.
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Quoting Levi32:
The area that the NOGAPS has been developing in the central Atlantic in the last few runs comes from this section of the monsoon trough directly south of the Cape Verde Islands:



I thought it was from the wave at 40W that has some more convection.
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1280. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What do you think about this for the possibility of eventual development?


Well it's nothing right now. A tropical wave over western Africa will probably lift that zone up and bring it across the central Atlantic over the next several days. The GFS ensemble mean precipitation field shows this well. Whether it develops, we'll see. The NOGAPS is currently alone in that solution, though it can occasionally find some gems. These waves are firing one after another WNW towards land in this pattern, so they should all be watched.
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1279. txjac
Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z NOGAPS continues to show development..
Link


And I see that Mexico continues to get drenched
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Anybody know why there have been no recent model runs on 90L?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258
Quoting Levi32:
The area that the NOGAPS has been developing in the central Atlantic in the last few runs comes from this section of the monsoon trough directly south of the Cape Verde Islands:



What do you think about this for the possibility of eventual development?
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1276. Levi32
The area that the NOGAPS has been developing in the central Atlantic in the last few runs comes from this section of the monsoon trough directly south of the Cape Verde Islands:

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1275. 7544
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


but then it will die down and look pathetic...It's a cycle with 90L and it is going to continue until 90L develops a low pressure area.


yeap we learn alot from every new system its good to watch them and how they react
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Quoting 7544:
90l starting to gain new convection might do what it did yesterday in the next 3 hours


but then it will die down and look pathetic...It's a cycle with 90L and it is going to continue until 90L develops a low pressure area.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258
1273. drs2008
Quoting 7544:
90l starting to gain new convection might do what it did yesterday in the next 3 hours
I agree.
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1272. Levi32
Quoting GetReal:


Yep... That about sums it up Levi!


GR, good to see you on :)
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1271. 7544
90l starting to gain new convection might do what it did yesterday in the next 3 hours
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258
Here is another graphic of the sst anomalies.

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TAFB

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
1266. Grothar
There is a fair amount of convection building to the Northwest of approximately where the center of 90L is supposed to be. It certainly looks better than two hours ago. If the positions are correct, it is defintitely still moving towards the WNW. Be interesting to see if any changes come this evening.

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Overall, 90L has a low chance of development. However, it should enter the NW Caribbean tomorrow night into Tuesday, and it should slow down. This may be enough to allow for development as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, but, 90L has a lot of work to do before becoming a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32258
Quoting hurricaneben:


Something sure wants to form back there, possibly Invest 91L?


For the moment, SAL is doing a good job, eating waves... close to Africa...

Here it's been a sunny day... Not so hot... 84 degrees...
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12z NOGAPS continues to show development..
Link
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1262. GetReal



I would not totally write off 90L just yet.... IT is just now entering the best atmospheric environment on it's track wnw. If it has any chance at all, it will be in the se GOM.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I would be too. That image you have posted before shows the MDR anomalies high.


This is impressive to say the least...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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