July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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1409. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Sun, Jul 24, 2011.

As of Sun, 24 Jul 2011 20:30:01 GMT

2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
90L.INVEST

East Pacific
04E.DORA

Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
10W.TEN
08W.MA-ON

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin up to 7.24.11:

2005 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Arlene
* Tropical Storm Bret
* Hurricane Cindy
* Major hurricane Dennis
* Major hurricane Emily
* Tropical Storm Franklin
* Tropical Storm Gert

2006 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Alberto
* Tropical Storm Unnamed
* Tropical Storm Beryl

2007 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Andrea
* Tropical Storm Barry

2008 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Arthur
* Major hurricane Bertha
* Tropical Storm Cristobal
* Hurricane Dolly

2009 Atlantic hurricane season:

* No cyclones recorded as of 7/24/04

2010 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Hurricane Alex
* Tropical Storm Bonnie

2011 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Arlene
* Tropical Storm Bret
* Tropical Storm Cindy
Your point means nothing one storm just one storm none in 2004 at this time then 4 like i said it just takes one
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this is odd


the last TD in the W PAC was TD 8 now where up too TD 10 i think they got got poor TD 9W
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90L is deactivated?.Well not all that surprised.I think Don might come later.Like in August.
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Quoting ackee:
HOW many name storm do u guys think we see in Aug ?


Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, maybe Harvey.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




thats sure not going too go on lol
Stranger things have happened Taz. I wouldn't give up on it just yet.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8263
1995 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Allison
* Tropical Storm Barry
* Tropical Storm Chantal

1996 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Arthur
* Major hurricane Bertha
* Hurricane Cesar

1997 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Unnamed Subtropical Storm One
* Tropical Storm Ana
* Hurricane Bill
* Tropical Storm Claudette
* Hurricane Danny
* Tropical Depression Five

1998 Atlantic hurricane season:

* No tropical cyclones recorded as of 7/24/98

1999 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Arlene
* Tropical Depression Two

Done (:
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:

NOUS42 KNHC 241400 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 24 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-054 CORRECTION





I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 19.0N 77.0W AT 25/1800Z.
3. REMARK: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 26/00Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 84.0W AT 26/1800Z.
3. REMARK: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 27/00Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.




thats sure not going too go on lol
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Quoting Wunderwood:
Joe Bastardi tweeted this morning that ex 90L has only a marginal of developing in the GOM.



so ture
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NOUS42 KNHC 241400 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 24 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-054 CORRECTION





I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 19.0N 77.0W AT 25/1800Z.
3. REMARK: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 26/00Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 21.0N 84.0W AT 26/1800Z.
3. REMARK: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 27/00Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8263
oh by the way TD 10 froms in the W pac
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Man there are some very rude folks on here. I mean to some people on here if you are not a "met" or don't have much experience in forecasting tropical weather, then you are considered a troll.. Shame on you...
There are other professional's in this world. I'm not a met, although I am a professional in the career that I've chosen, but I do learn easily and I'm eager to learn. I'm fascinated with tropical weather. I find this blog very informative at times. I don't gripe much, I try to joke, but some folks on here just need to remove the stick out of their butt. Some folks actually ask a decent question and they seem to get snubbed. just sayin'
I'm not saying any of this has happened to me I've just seen it happen here. I post sometimes but not often. Most of the time I'm lurking and attempting to learn, so back to lurking.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 971
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Whoa, if that happened all in August this blog would be off the walls.
last year they had i kant remeber all of em but they came back to back teddy. Earl DANIELLE,Igor and sum other ones. I think it mite happen this year too
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Joe Bastardi tweeted this morning that ex 90L has only a marginal of developing in the GOM.
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1389. Grothar
The location of the wave was initialized much further North this morning than the models had stated. It took a jog slightly more NW than WNW. With a system this weak, it doesn't mean all that much. It could be in a totally different place along the axis on any of the following runs.




Here is a link to see the past path and the slight jog to the NW.

Link
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2000 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Depression One
* Tropical Depression Two

2001 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Allison
* Tropical Depression Two

2002 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Arthur

2003 Atlantic hurricane season:


* Tropical Storm Ana
* Tropical Depression Two
* Tropical Storm Bill
* Hurricane Claudette
* Hurricane Danny
* Tropical Depression Six

2004 Atlantic hurricane season:

* No tropical cyclones as of 7/24/04
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1386. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Samantha550:
Hello all,
Having a hard time following who is creditable or not on here. This has been my come to place for information for the last several years. Now that Storm W is gone, I would like some suggestions of blogs to read when things start heating up.

Thanks!

i keep a pretty good blog page
Link
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000
WTPZ34 KNHC 242040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...DORA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 114.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH DORA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON DORA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
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Wow 90l is no more and the wish casters are still all over it Dam people these storms destroy lives etc i know direct hit from Charley in 2004 lost everything. Marvel in there formation but for crying out loud STOP wishing them to form. Or wish them to your community.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Samantha550:
Hello all,
Having a hard time following who is creditable or not on here. This has been my come to place for information for the last several years. Now that Storm W is gone, I would like some suggestions of blogs to read when things start heating up.

Thanks!
Link
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8263
Quoting bigwes6844:
IMO ima say between 10-12


Whoa, if that happened all in August this blog would be off the walls.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23499
Quoting ackee:
HOW many name storm do u guys think we see in Aug ?
IMO ima say between 10-12
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
HOW many name storm do u guys think we see in Aug ?


I think we'll see Don, Emily, Franklin, and Gert next month.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23499
1378. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting alfabob:

I've also noticed that the "cryosphere today" has been adding random patches of 15-20% ice in areas which have no ice (in comparison to the national snow and ice data center which uses extent instead of actual area coverage), so it's even less than is currently being shown. The PIOMAS volume is even more drastic, but who knows how accurate that is; seems reasonable though. Definitely below 2007 levels, going to be close enough to no ice this year if dipole reappears; actual visual images show very thin ice.


here is some web cam shots from the north pole




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1377. ackee
HOW many name storm do u guys think we see in Aug ?
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Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin up to 7.24.11:

2005 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Arlene
* Tropical Storm Bret
* Hurricane Cindy
* Major hurricane Dennis
* Major hurricane Emily
* Tropical Storm Franklin
* Tropical Storm Gert

2006 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Alberto
* Tropical Storm Unnamed
* Tropical Storm Beryl

2007 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Andrea
* Tropical Storm Barry

2008 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Arthur
* Major hurricane Bertha
* Tropical Storm Cristobal
* Hurricane Dolly

2009 Atlantic hurricane season:

* No cyclones recorded as of 7/24/04

2010 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Hurricane Alex
* Tropical Storm Bonnie

2011 Atlantic hurricane season:

* Tropical Storm Arlene
* Tropical Storm Bret
* Tropical Storm Cindy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1375. hotrods
Charlottefl- Thanks for posting the map, i do see how the flow is now, thanks for the info.
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1374. ackee
I wondering if dir air might be a big factor for CV system so far seem like it might be
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Hello all,
Having a hard time following who is creditable or not on here. This has been my come to place for information for the last several years. Now that Storm W is gone, I would like some suggestions of blogs to read when things start heating up.

Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hotrods:
Question for anyone who maybe able to answer this, but looking at visible sat, it seems like the flow from the SE is pushing this wave to WNW or NW towards the SE Bahamas, am i looking at this correctly?


Some of the convection may be moving that direction but the center(wave axis) is going to move due W or just north of due W. Here's the flow:




This might help also, find the pressure line that it's been following, and that's the general direction it's going to continue in:

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1369. ncstorm
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2011 Season Storms





All


Active


Year


Atlantic





90L.INVEST





East Pacific





04E.DORA







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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
Its NOT dead sorry watch it be reactivation tomorrow or tues.



yes its is dead
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Quoting Tazmanian:



dude its dead gone nhc is no longer updateing mode runs on it 90L is done


dead but not forgotten...still need to keep an eye on it
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

- button





thenk you +1 for that all so it can be called the poofer button
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1362. hotrods
Question for anyone who maybe able to answer this, but looking at visible sat, it seems like the flow from the SE is pushing this wave to WNW or NW towards the SE Bahamas, am i looking at this correctly?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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