July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting FLdewey:
LMAO... models that far out are less than meaningless. You'd be better off giving a monkey the keys to Photoshop.

True story.



Doesn't it say "State Farm" in the bottom left, hard to see though?
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2360. hcubed
Quoting FLdewey:
LMAO... models that far out are less than meaningless. You'd be better off giving a monkey the keys to Photoshop.

True story.


So THAT explains your avitar...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
DEWEY!! Raise the doomcon STAT!!!


thunderboomers over the center
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2358. aquak9
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok that is understandable and I am sorry for lashing out like that I know how you could of mix it up right now myself I have 15 tab open on one window plus I have 3 other windows open as well as I said I am sorry


Ok, we cool.
(hands can of cashews back to dewey)
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my suggestion on the raising of the doomcon is NO DONT DO IT, youll only regret it later,
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Quoting yoboi:


thanks


You're welcome. :)
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2355. yoboi
Quoting wxmobilejim:


thanks
Quoting wxmobilejim:

thanks
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
aquak it was a typing error thats exactly what i meant i have all these windows open getting all the info i can on this developing system..i didnt even notice what he said lol...thanks aqua for being on your toes..

ok that is understandable and I am sorry for lashing out like that I know how you could of mix it up right now myself I have 15 tab open on one window plus I have 3 other windows open as well as I said I am sorry
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Quoting yoboi:
does anyone have a hurricane dolly track???
Dolly came from way down in the SE corner of the Caribbean tracking wnw.
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DEWEY!! Raise the doomcon STAT!!!
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Member Since: May 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
2350. yoboi
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


thanks
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Quoting yoboi:
does anyone have a hurricane dolly track???
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Quoting yoboi:
does anyone have a hurricane dolly track???

Member Since: May 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
Quoting weaverwxman:
Looks to me like a Yucatan rain maker. I know just call me a downcaster...


youre upsetting the wishcasters
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2346. aquak9
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ha ha ha ha how in heavan earth and hell are you to get mixed up with that RGB/WV COMPLETELY DIFFRENT LETTERS PLUS RGB=LOW-MID LEVELS/WV=UPPER-UPPER LEVELS


GO LOOK AT POST 2327- -

AND HUSH.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I am so sorry you only have one day to live.


LOL
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Quoting marknmelb:
Tampa - you know the burial grounds will protect you ...


Sure hope that holds true.........LOL......leaving for Indiana to visit my family next Monday......don't wanna have to leave early or not leave at all for any storm.......
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Honestly even 30% over the next 48hrs might not be so reasonable to me......based on vorticity and now look at the Convergence and Divergence that just updated! BIG DIFFERENCE!







yup
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Looks to me like a Yucatan rain maker. I know just call me a downcaster...
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2338. beell
Quoting TampaSpin:



Looking much better Beell.....and conditions are starting to ripen as well as Shear falls as old 90L advances to the West!


Looks the same as yesterday at 700mb. Nothing at the surface.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
if i was the nhc i would bump it back up 20%


Honestly even 30% over the next 48hrs might not be so reasonable to me......based on vorticity and now look at the Convergence and Divergence that just updated! BIG DIFFERENCE!




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nhc has the wave farther west than we have it
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2333. yoboi
does anyone have a hurricane dolly track???
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Quoting FLdewey:
Riiiight.

"LASER"

How about just more slightly better than meaningless? Literally. ;-)

And don't down the monkey... he had good numbers last year. Or was it a chicken?


I'm just saying, it's there for a reason. Is it highly improbable for that exact situation to pan out? Of course it is, that's just simply not going to happen. That's why there is a big disclaimer right above the model. But at the same time, we shouldn't just sit here and only try to forecast the weather 24 hours in advance for the rest of our lives.
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


852 hrs out?? Where do you get that long of a GFS run?


Not GFS, CFS. I found it in Rob Lightbown's Tropical Weather Discussion from this morning.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31866
Tampa - you know the burial grounds will protect you ...
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Link

LSU low cloud product...it is the bomb diggity..
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2324. aquak9
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

cloudburst2011 you will never find the COC on WV imagery we do not use WV to find the COC of tropical system/surface lows WV imagery looks at upper levels not surface you got that get it cleared I don't want to see you make that mistake again


maybe he meant rgb- I have confused it myself with water vapor
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


852 hrs out?? Where do you get that long of a GFS run?
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Taz should just be getting up and coming on........LOL......can't wait.......LOL




am here right now lol been up about 4am
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Good lord man...You think that model can spit out the Powerball numbers for Wednesday??


In all seriousness however, that really could happen this year.


lol, I wish.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31866
Quoting skook:





and taz will come on and say," plz stop quoting jason".


Taz should just be getting up and coming on........LOL......can't wait.......LOL
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if i was the nhc i would bump it back up 20%
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2315. Patrap
Sulu, bring us around for another look,,

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting skook:





and taz will come on and say," plz stop quoting jason".




LOL
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ahhhhhhhhhh 90L coming back too life and fast
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Quoting beell:
700mb vorticity centered over the wave axis.




Looking much better Beell.....and conditions are starting to ripen as well as Shear falls as old 90L advances to the West!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.