July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Steering currents in the gulf? Any one?
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Quoting donna1960ruled:
I'm taking 90L to 40 percent. Conditions look so favorable out in front, as soon as the primary circ. gets a touch under Cuba, this could blow up very fast. I'm "Back on Board" with our good friend.....90L!!!



not even close it dos not even have a sfc low
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1509. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1500. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 10:15 PM GMT on July 24, 2011

Quoting HimacaneBrees:
okay I know what the "two" is, but why does everyone call it the two? why not call the 2 o'clock the "two" and the 8 o'clock the "eight"? just askin... is this like a running joke or something?

TWOAT atlantic
TWOEP eastern pacific
TWOCP central pacific
Tropical Weather Outlook ATlantic
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Thank you to everyone that answered. I was wondering, just never put it together. I guess i was having a senior moment with that one.
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Can someone please look at post #1495 and tell me your thoughts. Someone who knows please. Thanks.
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Steering currents in the gulf? Any one?
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
okay I know what the "two" is, but why does everyone call it the two? why not call the 2 o'clock the "two" and the 8 o'clock the "eight"? just askin... is this like a running joke or something?
It is not the time. Tropical Weather Outlook
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1502. centex
Quoting Tazmanian:




why are you posting old info?
because of all the deactivated talk an hour ago.
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Quoting justasking:
I think the "two" means tropical weather outlook. right?



ahh i get it now thank you
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1500. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
okay I know what the "two" is, but why does everyone call it the two? why not call the 2 o'clock the "two" and the 8 o'clock the "eight"? just askin... is this like a running joke or something?


TWOAT atlantic
TWOEP eastern pacific
TWOCP central pacific
Tropical Weather Outlook ATlantic
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Quoting Tazmanian:




that is the old two from 2pm not 8pm


Still the most recent info...
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Quoting justasking:
I think the "two" means tropical weather outlook. right?


Yes.

Tropical Weather Outlook
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
okay I know what the "two" is, but why does everyone call it the two? why not call the 2 o'clock the "two" and the 8 o'clock the "eight"? just askin... is this like a running joke or something?


Tropical Weather Outlook
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Current Weather Conditions:
Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba

(MUCU) 19-58N 075-51W 55M
Conditions at

2011.07.24 2150 UTC
Wind from the SW (230 degrees) at 3 MPH (3 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Showers in the vicinity
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
ob MUCU 242150Z 23003KT 8000 VCSH FEW020CB SCT025 BKN070 28/23 Q1 01


Current Weather Conditions:
Montego Bay / Sangster, Jamaica

(MKJS) 18-30N 077-55W 8M
Conditions at

2011.07.24 2200 UTC
Wind from the WSW (250 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)


Current Weather Conditions:
Port-Au-Prince / Aeroport International, Haiti

(MTPP) 18-34N 072-18W 34M
Conditions at

2011.07.24 2100 UTC
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT) gusting to 23 MPH (20 KT)


Possibly a closed circulation forming in this general area between. SE Cuba, Jamaica and Haiti ?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Personally, I would give 90L a ~0% chance of development within the next 48 hours. Even if there is a chance for development in the Gulf of Mexico, that is outside of the 48-hour window.




ageerd
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

bold tells the question why its 10%




that is the old two from 2pm not 8pm
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I think the "two" means tropical weather outlook. right?
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Personally, I would give 90L a ~0% chance of development within the next 48 hours. Even if there is a chance for development in the Gulf of Mexico, that is outside of the 48-hour window.
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
I like how mr troll is ignoring my posts cause he knows its true and doesnt want to admit it.



oh
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okay I know what the "two" is, but why does everyone call it the two? why not call the 2 o'clock the "two" and the 8 o'clock the "eight"? just askin... is this like a running joke or something?
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Quoting centex:
Hum,

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA IS
PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





why are you posting old info?
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1484. centex
Hum,

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA IS
PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Taz, 90L is not dead. It is still up on every site except here. Until it is deactivated, have Invest 90L.
It is not deactivated last time I checked.



ture but i think the atfc site dos not all ways update right i guss will have too wait and seee
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Let's get something straight here. Just because Wunderground shows that 90L is not active, that doesn't mean it isn't. Wunderground, although usually correct, is wrong sometimes, such as this. According to the Navy page and ATCF, 90L is still active.

When 90L is dead, ATCF will deactivate it. That hasn't happened yet.
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Quoting centex:
It has 10% chance asof 2PM today. I think some on here don't even read the two's.



the two has not been update yet at 2pm



there is a good ch the nhc will say 0% or they may drop it from the two
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Quoting MrCowan:


no.


Have to ask, as a newcomer, why would you say no? Do you even know this person?
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Quoting Tazmanian:




that info in vary old

That is not old it is up to date.
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1476. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:



90L is off of WU so there for its dead the next two will show what i been saying
it will be still there taz
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1474. centex
It has 10% chance asof 2PM today. I think some on here don't even read the two's.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



90L is off of WU so there for its dead the next two will show what i been saying

WU is not official. It is still on the Navy site so it is not dead.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just wanna know...

Q: Should I start writing blog entries again?

A. Yes
B. No


Definite yes. Your input is duly noted.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 90, 2011072412, 175N, 700W, 25, 1013, DB




that info in vary old
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90L is actually still activated on the Navy site so it's not dead yet.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Link

here is correct link lots of info just got to navigate it a little do some exploring
Thank you.
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
btw its still 90L keeper said earlier if you wren't watching



90L is off of WU so there for its dead the next two will show what i been saying
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AL, 90, 2011072412, 175N, 700W, 25, 1013, DB
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Quoting Tazmanian:



90L is now X 90L all so its not going too from its overe

It could reform in the gulf don't give up on it just yet Taz.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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