July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting centex:
Sorry need to clarify. Things can change very fast in tropics. After 3-4 days forecast are very unreliable. So keep watching because climatology still working in our favor. Best news gulf is ripe for system. Stay tuned.
Thank You and I know, things can change in a hurry since we are almost in August. I don't want the drought and the heat but I don't want the U.S. to be damaged by Hurricane but all of this is out of everyone's hands and up to Mother Nature.
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1560. Mikla
When NHC issues a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours, it is because:
A) They don't want to be wrong
B) It's weather... anthing can happen
C) The models are wrong, so something will probably happen
D) They want to play mind games with the WU bloggers and give them something to do...
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Oh yeah....agreed, I don't think 90L is just going to die, even though is seems it is off the tracking maps for the moment.

I don't put too much faith in that since they didn't really pick up on Bret or Cindy.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Something is trying to get going in that area. Getting overcast and at least we might get rain if nothing else. It sure is needed.


yes we do need the rain
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


looks like we may be in for a bit of rain

;-p

also check out the spin just north of jam though it doesnt appear to be lower level

href="http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.p hp?region=gulf&channel=lc" target="_blank">Link
Something is trying to get going in that area. Getting overcast and at least we might get rain if nothing else. It sure is needed.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I was wondering whether you saw that . Thanks for answering. I can see something is going on in the area though. This morning seas were calm and by this afternoon getting choppy. Wind has picked up too.


looks like we may be in for a bit of rain

;-p

also check out the spin just north of jam though it doesnt appear to be lower level

Link
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1553. centex
Quoting centex:
No good news we can only hope something develops beyond the forecast window.
Sorry need to clarify. Things can change very fast in tropics. After 3-4 days forecast are very unreliable. So keep watching because climatology still working in our favor. Best news gulf is ripe for system. Stay tuned.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


This image is based on the idea of a 'perfect' MJO that follows a constant cycle.

Don't put much stock in it.

MJO should be in our region in about 2 weeks.
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1551. ncstorm
the 18Z NOGAPS looks like it has the moisture from ex 90L going up the east coast again?

Link
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I was wondering whether you saw that . Thanks for answering. I can see something is going on in the area though. This morning seas were calm and by this afternoon getting choppy. Wind has picked up too.


It could still develop, but I would not expect this to begin until it reaches the NW Caribbean in a couple of days. Keep watching, but I think you guys in the Caymans have dodged a bullet with this one.
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Quoting TORMENTOSO83:


This image is based on the idea of a 'perfect' MJO that follows a constant cycle.

Don't put much stock in it.
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Oh yeah....agreed, I don't think 90L is just going to die, even though is seems it is off the tracking maps for the moment.

Quoting KoritheMan:


At least part of the circulation is going to interact with Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, which will slow development. Still, as the long as the actual center (if there is one -- perhaps I should use the term "vortmax" instead) remains over water, it shouldn't just die.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Also Laurie, to answer your question on Facebook, I do indeed still think that 90L has a chance. Disruption was to be expected once it interacted with the mountains. Do not underestimate the magnitude of Hispaniola's mountains.
I was wondering whether you saw that . Thanks for answering. I can see something is going on in the area though. This morning seas were calm and by this afternoon getting choppy. Wind has picked up too.
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90L has very poor vorticity in the 850mb level, and I'm guessing this is due to land interaction. The mid levels still have a decent amount. Convection has increased this afternoon probably due to daytime heating, which destablized the atmosphere. 90L's best opportunity to strengthen will be on Tuesday when it reaches the NW Caribbean where lower levels wind should slow down somewhat.

For those interested I just composed a blog entry on 90L and the rest of the tropics.

Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:


At least part of the circulation is going to interact with Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, which will slow development. Still, as the long as the actual center (if there is one -- perhaps I should use the term "vortmax" instead) remains over water, it shouldn't just die.
You better keep me up to date on this one mister :) I don't expect much but you never know .
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Also Laurie, to answer your question on Facebook, I do indeed still think that 90L has a chance. Disruption was to be expected once it interacted with the mountains. Do not underestimate the magnitude of Hispaniola's mountains.
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1541. centex
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Any positive news for Texas the next 2 months as far as tropics go? 105 today, day 46 of 100 or greater, coolest 2 days of July have been 99, not dropping below 80 in the morning, according to NWS no relief in site. Thing that bothers me the most is all the wildlife that is dying and farmers losing everything. Stay cool.
No good news we can only hope something develops beyond the forecast window.
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did the blog die? X-(, just when I was finally out of lurking for the evening?
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Right....maybe far enough out to avoid disruption, maybe not...



At least part of the circulation is going to interact with Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, which will slow development. Still, as the long as the actual center (if there is one -- perhaps I should use the term "vortmax" instead) remains over water, it shouldn't just die.
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Good observation...I've been lurking for days and think that P451 is right when saying that the signature really hasn't improved (considering the position of that circulation, who would think it could!?)

Quoting KoritheMan:


850 mb vorticity has actually decreased over the last several hours, so I highly doubt that anything substantial is happening at the surface.
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Right....maybe far enough out to avoid disruption, maybe not...

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I agree but it looks to me to be passing between the islands and not really over them.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anything trying to organize in that area is very weak and likely within the mid and upper levels at this time. However, there is a weak reflection at the 850 mb. level, which could be an indicator that something is trying to work down to the surface.



850 mb vorticity has actually decreased over the last several hours, so I highly doubt that anything substantial is happening at the surface.
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Quoting Goldenblack:
#1527 is the best evidence yet that there is something weak going on at the surface, stormwatcherCI. It is weak and in an area where development is going to be a tough go. Those are some pretty high mountains just to the north...

I agree but it looks to me to be passing between the islands and not really over them.
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Not to mention that the CIMSS vorticity maps that TropicalAnalystwx13 just posted shows that the strongest of the mid-level circulation is displaced to the east and a touch south.

Quoting Goldenblack:
#1527 is the best evidence yet that there is something weak going on at the surface, stormwatcherCI. It is weak and in an area where development is going to be a tough go. Those are some pretty high mountains just to the north...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
700 mb. level:



500 mb. level:





500mb looks better then 700mb
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Any positive news for Texas the next 2 months as far as tropics go? 105 today, day 46 of 100 or greater, coolest 2 days of July have been 99, not dropping below 80 in the morning, according to NWS no relief in site. Thing that bothers me the most is all the wildlife that is dying and farmers losing everything. Stay cool.
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#1527 is the best evidence yet that there is something weak going on at the surface, stormwatcherCI. It is weak and in an area where development is going to be a tough go. Those are some pretty high mountains just to the north...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anything trying to organize in that area is very weak and likely within the mid and upper levels at this time. However, there is a weak reflection at the 850 mb. level, which could be an indicator that something is trying to work down to the surface.

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700 mb. level:



500 mb. level:


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Anything trying to organize in that area is very weak and likely within the mid and upper levels at this time. However, there is a weak reflection at the 850 mb. level, which could be an indicator that something is trying to work down to the surface.

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Agreed, however, Port=au-Prince really isn't that close to the area that we are watching...

See post #1523

Quoting KoritheMan:


Definitely looks like a sharp cyclonic wind shift, but to me the east wind reported at Port-au-Prince suggests that the circulation is not yet well-defined (closed). We'd expect more of a southerly component given the proximity of Port-au-Prince to the low-level center.
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Where is this 90L you speak of ?
Time to wait for about another week or so and see what's happenin then. Until then , PRZEDCASTER over and out :)
Just another boring weather day in South Florida :(
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Look for 90L to organize some tomorrow, should be entering some warmer Sea Surface Temperatures. Last time it did that was when it was entering the East Caribbean, which got it up to 30%.

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1523. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
90L/INV/XX
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Current Weather Conditions:
Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba

(MUCU) 19-58N 075-51W 55M
Conditions at

2011.07.24 2150 UTC
Wind from the SW (230 degrees) at 3 MPH (3 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Showers in the vicinity
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
ob MUCU 242150Z 23003KT 8000 VCSH FEW020CB SCT025 BKN070 28/23 Q1 01


Current Weather Conditions:
Montego Bay / Sangster, Jamaica

(MKJS) 18-30N 077-55W 8M
Conditions at

2011.07.24 2200 UTC
Wind from the WSW (250 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)


Current Weather Conditions:
Port-Au-Prince / Aeroport International, Haiti

(MTPP) 18-34N 072-18W 34M
Conditions at

2011.07.24 2100 UTC
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT) gusting to 23 MPH (20 KT)


Possibly a closed circulation forming in this general area between. SE Cuba, Jamaica and Haiti ?


Definitely looks like a sharp cyclonic wind shift, but to me the east wind reported at Port-au-Prince suggests that the circulation is not yet well-defined (closed). We'd expect more of a southerly component given the proximity of Port-au-Prince to the low-level center.
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1520. rod2635
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just wanna know...

Q: Should I start writing blog entries again?

A. Yes
B. No


C. Something you should be able to decide for yourself
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1519. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
if it lifts up to exit out over the strait into gom then well me could get something we just got to watch for now nothing more
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
With the wind directions I posted in #1495 I think it may be forming a surface low.



cool but still not sure about 90L
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

I wouldnt think that jamaica would have a wsw wind in a normal day hmmm
Ja to the west of the blob, Cuba to the north and Haiti to the east all have different wind directions.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Thanks
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Quoting Tazmanian:



not even close it dos not even have a sfc low
With the wind directions I posted in #1495 I think it may be forming a surface low.
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Quoting donna1960ruled:
I'm taking 90L to 40 percent. Conditions look so favorable out in front, as soon as the primary circ. gets a touch under Cuba, this could blow up very fast. I'm "Back on Board" with our good friend.....90L!!!


I dont think 40% that fast. Not in the next 48hrs. Maybe in the next 72-96 hrs.
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soon it will clear the straights pretty sure we will know if it is going to develop by then
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Steering currents in the gulf? Any one?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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