July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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1611. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
i got some nic crow for you guys
bbq please
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting Tazmanian:
i got some nic crow for you guys

I got some for you too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
geting my BBQ ready
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
10% means the nhc believes that it may develop in the gom with good conditions.


No, it doesn't. It just means that there is a 1/10 chance that 90L will develop within the next 48 hours.
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i got some nic crow for you guys
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
90L RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
1602. centex
Quoting Slamguitar:


B. 10%
I will take some of that.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERSOF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. VERY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMSMAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NUMEROUS OCCURRENCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVYRAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. WATERSPOUTS WILL BEPOSSIBLE OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS.A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY SATURDAY. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING WELL INTO THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS OVER MANY AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES.
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
btw in order for them to drop they would mention 0% then nada lol


No they don't, although it would make sense to.
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1598. scott39
Quoting scott39:
The NHC is going to ride with 10% until 90L developes!
% will go up until developes. Call it a hunch but 90L isnt going away!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
90L RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
1596. 7544
nice hot tower over land what if it decides to go a little north are cond. fav there tia
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1595. scott39
The NHC is going to ride with 10% until 90L developes!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
i cant wait too find out
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
dont think their drop it lol it has a chance like i mention...dont lose hope


It has a chance in the 4-7 time frame. That is outside the 48-hour window :)
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Quoting Mikla:
When NHC issues a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours, it is because:
A) They don't want to be wrong
B) It's weather... anthing can happen
C) The models are wrong, so something will probably happen
D) They want to play mind games with the WU bloggers and give them something to do...


hahahaha

:)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 90L at the 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Drop it from the TWO




A or E
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting centex:
Someone keeping there eye on the ball. I really think something will form from this. When land lets up it will pop.
Agreed and I think it will stay at 10%.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 90L at the 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Drop it from the TWO


B. 10%
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 90L at the 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Drop it from the TWO


E.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


So? It's still a model isn't it? While it is always overly aggressive, the fact that it develops the area is a sign that we need to watch it and that conditions will be favorable.


Conditions will indeed be relatively favorable in the Caribbean. I'm just being realistic.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, there's hardly much else to talk about. Maybe the CMC and ECMWF will get onboard with the Cape Verde GFS storm in a few days.. maybe.


It hardly matters that far out.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
1581. centex
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/INV/90L
MARK
18.81N/73.73W
Someone keeping there eye on the ball. I really think something will form from this. When land lets up it will pop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 90L at the 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Drop it from the TWO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Who cares? The NOGAPS is always overly aggressive.


So? It's still a model isn't it? While it is always overly aggressive, the fact that it develops the area is a sign that we need to watch it and that conditions will be favorable.
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1576. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/90L
MARK
18.81N/73.73W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Who cares? The NOGAPS is always overly aggressive.


Yea, there's hardly much else to talk about. Maybe the CMC and ECMWF will get onboard with the Cape Verde GFS storm in a few days.. maybe.
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1574. ncstorm
Quoting KoritheMan:


While that's unlikely to happen so precisely, the ECMWF has likewise been hinting at increased activity in that region of the Atlantic over the next two weeks. It's something to watch, for sure, especially since we are approaching the climatological Cape Verde season.


I agree..
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1573. ncstorm
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hmm, begins to emerge by 240 hours. Very long range and no models support this however and its the first run of the GFS.. so basically it will probably be dropped or weaker at 00z.


probably a signal to the start of the Cape Verde season..
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Who cares? The NOGAPS is always overly aggressive.


Always
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z NOGAPS once again shows an intensifying system nearing the Caribbean by 180 hours. This is what it develops.


Who cares? The NOGAPS is always overly aggressive.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Quoting ncstorm:
18Z GFS got a 996 MB coming off the african coast Aug 9..far out but long range often comes to past.

Link


While that's unlikely to happen so precisely, the ECMWF has likewise been hinting at increased activity in that region of the Atlantic over the next two weeks. It's something to watch, for sure, especially since we are approaching the climatological Cape Verde season.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
Quoting wxmobilejim:

MJO should be in our region in about 2 weeks.


If there is anything the models are worse at forecasting after cyclogenesis, it is MJO.

Where it is:




Where the models forecast:

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1568. centex
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Thank You and I know, things can change in a hurry since we are almost in August. I don't want the drought and the heat but I don't want the U.S. to be damaged by Hurricane but all of this is out of everyone's hands and up to Mother Nature.
Our only chance to end drought is something tropical. Of course we don't want a major hurrricane. But it's common around here to end drought with flood, just comes with the territory.
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Quoting ncstorm:
18Z GFS got a 996 MB coming off the african coast Aug 9..far out but long range often comes to past.

Link


Hmm, begins to emerge by 240 hours. Very long range and no models support this however and its the first run of the GFS.. so basically it will probably be dropped or weaker at 00z.
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Anybody have any opinions like if Cindy became a hurricane or if any invest this year didnt become a storm and you thought it did?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


This image is based on the idea of a 'perfect' MJO that follows a constant cycle.

Don't put much stock in it.
Explain that please
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90L has not reached the area yet that is climotologically(is that a word ) favorable. Should be around Tuesday.
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18z NOGAPS once again shows an intensifying system nearing the Caribbean by 180 hours. This is what it develops.
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1562. ncstorm
18Z GFS got a 996 MB coming off the african coast Aug 9..far out but long range often comes to past.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
Sorry need to clarify. Things can change very fast in tropics. After 3-4 days forecast are very unreliable. So keep watching because climatology still working in our favor. Best news gulf is ripe for system. Stay tuned.
Thank You and I know, things can change in a hurry since we are almost in August. I don't want the drought and the heat but I don't want the U.S. to be damaged by Hurricane but all of this is out of everyone's hands and up to Mother Nature.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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