July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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1660. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
wind shear is some what high in the gulf has well

Now you just want to kill 90L off in the future Taz! LOL This wave is a creeper. It will ride on 10% until it can develope more. Everyone and the models cant be wrong from just 24 hours ago. NHC sees it!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


A tropical disturbance just south of Dominican Republican with warmer waters to the west?



LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
I wonder when WU will put 90L back up...
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2am it will be 0%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
1656. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1644. Tazmanian 11:38 PM GMT on July 24, 2011
what in the word is the nhc seeing in this


A tropical disturbance just south of Dominican Republican with warmer waters to the west?
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1655. xcool
;)
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Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting Tazmanian:
what in the word is the nhc seeing in this

That is what they get paid to do. Know more than you.
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wind shear is some what high in the gulf has well

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Glad to see the NHC is still playing with the yellow crayon at 8pm.
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1648. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
what in the word is the nhc seeing in this
something your not.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
this is going to be a long hurricane season!
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what in the word is the nhc seeing in this
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
1643. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
F5 KEY DIS-ENGAGMENT SUCCESSFUL
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Quoting Tazmanian:



your one of them

how do you like your crow?
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1640. scott39
Taz--I goy a fresh big nasty crow for you! LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
1639. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10 percent yellow circle it is
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Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
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Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks

GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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New 8 PM TWOAT just in - still 10%...
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1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
NNNN

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1635. 7544
yellow circle will still be there
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
everyone has made crow i see...i think someone will have it probably not myself.



your one of them
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
1632. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
F5 key engagment commence
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Quoting DestinJeff:
there is 20% chance it will be near 0%, a 10% chance it will be 20%, and a 70% chance it will be 10%.


Almost 100% that it will be a low chance.
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
In other words 10% means something can happen after 48hrs which it could.If not then it would've been 0 earlier today.



oh will you plzs give it a rest
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
1628. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


1200 UTC/0800 AM EDT model still looks dangerous for 902011AL
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Quoting TxHurricanedude11:

edit it



i hop you like your crow
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Everybody is saying 90L RIP. True, but it can almost easily 'rise again.'
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the nhc will drop it from the two ot drop it too %0
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
1621. rod2635
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 90L at the 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Drop it from the TWO


B
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1620. scott39
near 0% seems needless!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
1619. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


An area of convection (94W) located at 4.4N 148.2E or 280 NM southwest of Chuuk, Micronesia. Animated satellite imagery indicates convection consolidating and intensifying around the low level circulation center. A 1932z SSMIS image reveals deep convection gathering around the low level circulation center. The low level circulation center lies south of the near-equatorial ridge in a diffluent area characterized by only 5-10 knot of vertical wind shear. Total precipitable water loops as well as the 1200z PGTW streamline analysis show vigorous cross-equatorial flow into the western semi-circle of the system. A near miss to the west of the circulation, a 1137z ASCAT Pass, showed 15-20 knot winds over the majority of the western semi-circle. Equatorward outflow is well established and poleward outflow into a deep tropical upper tropospheric trough to the northeast is improving.

Maximum sustained winds is 17-23 knot with a central pressure of 1007 MB.
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1618. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
we will know in the next few minutes or so
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Look what happens on the 30th
Link
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Link
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1611. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
i got some nic crow for you guys
bbq please
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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