July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1711 - 1661

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Quoting Goldenblack:
Interesting positioning....time stamp was from just 4-5 hours ago (its 00:17 UTC right now)...

Yeah. They update them every six hours. If you go to the OPC website they have most of the Nrn Hemisphere in the Unified Analysis.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah Baha, I can see where that might have dampened your spirits. Is this a hobby of yours?

I may be in Florida, but I am equally wary of all systems for all people in the Atlantic Basin. They are fascinating, deadly spectacles of nature.....

Ah, I thought it was FL, but was thinking further south... Charley robbed me of a train trip in '04... then in '05 I was on one of the last few runs of the eastbound Sunset Limited before Katrina put paid to the NOLA - Orlando portion of its route...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alfabob:
Alfabob, I think it is trying to form a LLC right in the middle of the three islands showing on the radar. What do you think ? Last AVN Satellite shows some colder cloud tops if I am not mistaken.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1706. JRRP
Quoting scott39:
Is that coming from 90L?

nop...
is the future 97L
:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:


agree looks like tues or wends for so fla rains if it hold together. a little confusing being all the conv is to the north over bahamas this time . and no model runs so wherever if this decide to form will be the key
I'm starting to agree with the pple saying sometime Tues or Wed before any chance of development. However, that 10% is there to remind us not to rule anything out...

Quoting Goldenblack:


Hey Baha....in the Tampa area.

Love watching systems, but not watching them near population. Charley dealt me a blow back in 2004 when I lived in Fort Myers Beach....scared the @#^^%$ outta me.

Ah, I thought it was FL, but was thinking further south... Charley robbed me of a train trip in '04... then in '05 I was on one of the last few runs of the eastbound Sunset Limited before Katrina put paid to the NOLA - Orlando portion of its route...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrCowan:


what's up with that trough towards the end? The storm begins to lift up too fast, I do not like that. I thought everything is suppose to move from east to west? That better not be the beginnings of another 'August 2010'' type of a pattern, cause that would anger me on so many levels.


Because a month without USA landfalls would be so traumatizing...

Sarcasm Flag: ON
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Quoting BahaHurican:
YW... NP. Look at this surface analysis map to get a clearer picture.



Baha, notice the ITCZ at 10N. Is getting close to CV time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting positioning....time stamp was from just 4-5 hours ago (its 00:17 UTC right now)...

Quoting BahaHurican:
YW... NP. Look at this surface analysis map to get a clearer picture.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hotrods:
Thanks for explaining Baha!
YW... NP. Look at this surface analysis map to get a clearer picture.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1697. ncstorm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not saying it will happen....but stranger things have happened than a relocation of circulation center....being there isn't one (well defined 850mb circulation) right now, and there is decent sheer over the Bahamas, I'd say probably not...north of the islands.

Quoting 7544:


agree looks like tues or wends for so fla rains if it hold together. a little confusing being all the conv is to the north over bahamas this time . and no model runs so wherever if this decide to form will be the key
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1695. JRRP

6n
22w
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1694. scott39
Quoting JRRP:
here we go again GFS...

Is that coming from 90L?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706


Hey Baha....in the Tampa area.

Love watching systems, but not watching them near population. Charley dealt me a blow back in 2004 when I lived in Fort Myers Beach....scared the @#^^%$ outta me.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Where r u GB?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1692. 7544
Quoting BahaHurican:
The wave's big enough to impact Central Bahamas. Northern Bahamas / S Florida likely will get some wx from this, though more in the nature of passing showers than anything more organized.

At least I hope so. I think everybody from the Bahamas to Cuba to Caymans will be glad if this just remains a refreshing, invigorating tropical wave with no spinup.


agree looks like tues or wends for so fla rains if it hold together. a little confusing being all the conv is to the north over bahamas this time . and no model runs so wherever if this decide to form will be the key
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6617
Pity we lost that blogger from the Guantanamo area... we got some very useful reports from there in '08.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1690. hotrods
Thanks for explaining Baha!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Goldenblack:
Amen to that...

Where r u GB?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
The wave's big enough to impact Central Bahamas. Northern Bahamas / S Florida likely will get some wx from this, though more in the nature of passing showers than anything more organized.

At least I hope so. I think everybody from the Bahamas to Cuba to Caymans will be glad if this just remains a refreshing, invigorating tropical wave with no spinup.
Exactly but still waiting for the rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Amen to that...

Quoting BahaHurican:
The wave's big enough to impact Central Bahamas. Northern Bahamas / S Florida likely will get some wx from this, though more in the nature of passing showers than anything more organized.

At least I hope so. I think everybody from the Bahamas to Cuba to Caymans will be glad if this just remains a refreshing, invigorating tropical wave with no spinup.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hotrods:
Is it or could it be that the northern part of the convection with 90l may just head north and the rest of the convection head west, a system that just splits in 2. Since they mentioned heavy rains for the central Bahamas.
The wave's big enough to impact Central Bahamas. Northern Bahamas / S Florida likely will get some wx from this, though more in the nature of passing showers than anything more organized.

At least I hope so. I think everybody from the Bahamas to Cuba to Caymans will be glad if this just remains a refreshing, invigorating tropical wave with no spinup.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OOOOOoooo, ouch, I hope she doesn't track tropical systems...lol

Quoting Dakster:


How did you catch my ex-girlfriend?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


GFS F72


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1682. JRRP
here we go again GFS...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wind sheer a problem with 90L? If it doesn't develop, won't be because of this (given a WNW track that is)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening all.... I'm here loling away at the big debate over 10% or not 10%.... :o)

It seems pretty obvious to me after even the quickest looks at 90L that things haven't changed much with it... except maybe forward speed. So why would NHC change its position? Until 1) conditions become more favorable and 2) 90L develops a well-formed centre of circulation, it won't get more. If it doesn't before it hits the western GoM, then NHC might lower to 0%.

Looks like whatever rain we get from this will happen tomorrow p.m.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1678. Matt74
I don't understand why they use percentages. They should just go LOW, MEDIUM, or HIGH.
Member Since: June 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
Quoting 7544:
is it a wave or a invest ?


Invest 90L that formed from a wave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1676. scott39
Quoting Dakster:


How did you catch my ex-girlfriend?
It wasnt easy!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
Explain that please
Seeing how nobody else explained...

The image you posted was the statistical MJO forecast, not a dynamic forecast. That forecast predicts where the MJO will be based on a perfectly behaved MJO. This is never the case, however, as the MJO never behaves "perfectly". Therefore, its best to use the dynamic forecasts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1674. Dakster
Quoting scott39:
Taz--I goy a fresh big nasty crow for you! LOL


How did you catch my ex-girlfriend?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1673. scott39
90L will hold its own until it can develope more in the NW Caribbean and into the GOM. Convection will wane tonight... flare Monday...wane Monday night...and develope Tuesday.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
Time to sit and gather strength in NW Caribbean?

Time will tell...

Quoting stormpetrol:
NHC was right imo at keeping 90L at 10%, this wave still has alot of potential and it has slowed down in forward speed plenty today as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and a 100 percent chance of DestinJeff sarcasm flag action...

Quoting DestinJeff:
There.

10%. Yes that means a CAT 10 monster will form in the GOM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1668. scott39
It would be interesting if we could see new track runs on it. But that aint going to happen for now.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
NHC was right imo at keeping 90L at 10%, this wave still has alot of potential and it has slowed down in forward speed plenty today as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1666. hotrods
Is it or could it be that the northern part of the convection with 90l may just head north and the rest of the convection head west, a system that just splits in 2. Since they mentioned heavy rains for the central Bahamas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1663. 7544
is it a wave or a invest ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6617
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
probably 10% again notice the nhc said no significant development expect due to interaction with land.


I agree. Don't see it going any higher or lower than 10% for the next 12h.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1711 - 1661

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.