July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting JLPR2:


I'm actually paying more attention to the Nogaps since the development it shows is supposed to start soon.

GFS long range is as real as Tinkerbell. xD


WHAT???? What are you saying?!?!?!?!
:(
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1859. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
finally peace and quiet
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Think I will head out myself. I need to get up in the morning :o(
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Well, I'm off for tonight. I'll be back tomorrow mid-morning with a fresh blog entry :)

Night all.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32864
1856. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
I need a job
i hear the noodle factory is hiring
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1855. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST July 25 2011
===========================

DEVELOPED LOW FORMER MA-ON (1000 HPA)
44N 152E
SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS
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TAFB experimental gridded forecast maps are suggesting some moderation of the high between tomorrow noon and Tuesday. In fact, MSLP suggests some kind of trough movement to account for the high suddenly retreating to off the FL coast... So a more Nly component is not out of the question.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Some Flare-up and spinin



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1852. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/90L
MARK
19.21N/74.71W
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32864
1850. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09
9:00 AM JST July 25 2011
==========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 12.8N 128.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0


Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 15.0N 126.8E -(CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
=====================

Tropical depression will move at the same speed for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will move northwest for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be T2.0 after 24 hours
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




That wave at 40W has good vorticity.
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I need a job
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Anybody with the most recent vorticity map? TIA...


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32864
Quoting BahaHurican:
If the wave getting ready to exit is the same AEW that was over Ghana a day or 2 ago, there was a sfc low with it... if that's still the case, things could get a little more interesting down the road...


Jason posted the surface analysis map a page or 2 back - do believe they still have the low with it.

Yes could be interesting.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
That Juan 2003 got retired, IIRC... it was a bad storm for Canadian Maritimes... can't remember if it actually hit Bermuda or just went past them...


Nah, that was Fabian. Juan struck Atlantic Canada, and Fabian hit Bermuda as a Category 3.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
To me, it looks like 90L is taking a more northerly component.
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Anybody with the most recent vorticity map? TIA...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
That Juan 2003 got retired, IIRC... it was a bad storm for Canadian Maritimes... can't remember if it actually hit Bermuda or just went past them...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
So where do we think ex-90L is? Over water between Jamaica and Cuba? Or over Cuba?


Personally, the former.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21333
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I live for noodle model runs
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:
So where do we think ex-90L is? Over water between Jamaica and Cuba? Or over Cuba?
Looks to be between the eastern tip of Cuba and Jamaica but over the water.
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Quoting JLPR2:


This is the CV system of the GFS at its peak.

Lets see what the 00z run, which I consider the most reliable run, looks like.




wow according to that the high will block anything from turning north
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


It's not the same wave - someone pointed out the NGP develops teh wave that is getting ready to exit Africa. The GFS develops that out in early Aug.
If the wave getting ready to exit is the same AEW that was over Ghana a day or 2 ago, there was a sfc low with it... if that's still the case, things could get a little more interesting down the road...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1833. JLPR2
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


It's not the same wave - someone pointed out the NGP develops teh wave that is getting ready to exit Africa. The GFS develops that out in early Aug.


I'm actually paying more attention to the Nogaps since the development it shows is supposed to start soon.

GFS long range is as real as Tinkerbell. xD
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Life is not the same without noodle models.........
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So where do we think ex-90L is? Over water between Jamaica and Cuba? Or over Cuba?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
@Baha: Looks like hitting the "-" button will not do anything, since the main topic of the blog has switched from 90L to MrCowan.

:|


Or the "!" button, which i've finally done.

Now, the topic is going to the TW that's left Africa and what some models are showing to become Don.
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Quoting ackee:
is this the same way the NOGAPS devlops look like that would ttrack NORTH of the CARRB according to the GFS guess we see


It's not the same wave - someone pointed out the NGP develops teh wave that is getting ready to exit Africa. The GFS develops that out in early Aug.
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@Baha: Looks like hitting the "-" button will not do anything, since the main topic of the blog has switched from 90L to MrCowan.

:|
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32864
For some reason this blog discussion is making me think of Fernando Valenzuela...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting MrCowan:


Far from the truth.


It's far from fiction.
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1823. JLPR2
Quoting ackee:
is this the same way the NOGAPS devlops look like that would ttrack NORTH of the CARRB according to the GFS guess we see


Yeah, track wise it is similar. Although Nogaps moves at lower latitudes and the low it forms develops in 72hrs, the GFS in 252hrs.
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1822. JRRP
Quoting ackee:
is this the same way the NOGAPS devlops look like that would ttrack NORTH of the CARRB according to the GFS guess we see

nop
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Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting MrCowan:


?, una amenaza? Ya fuistes reportado, mijo!


No menace, Juanito Fuma Veneno was really killed in 1988 in the "Barrio", New York. I went on vacation to visit family and he was very popular there...

Are you also called Juanito?

There was a Hurricane called Juan




Hurricane Juan was a significant hurricane that struck the southern part of Atlantic Canada in late September 2003. It was the tenth named storm and the sixth hurricane of the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season.

Juan formed southeast of Bermuda on September 24, 2003 out of a tropical wave that tracked into the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. It strengthened gradually in the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, reaching Category 2 strength on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale on September 27 while continuing to track northward. It peaked at 105 mph (165 km/h) as it rapidly approached the coast of Nova Scotia, losing little intensity over the cooler waters.
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1817. ackee
Quoting JLPR2:


This is the CV system of the GFS at its peak.

Lets see what the 00z run, which I consider the most reliable run, looks like.
is this the same way the NOGAPS devlops look like that would ttrack NORTH of the CARRB according to the GFS guess we see
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Who is that renamed JFV?
The thing is that every time that JFV comes around the blog gets affected..

In the "Barrio", Brooking NY, JFV was "Jaimito Fuma Veneno", a drug addict that everybody knew and helped by giving him food. He was killed..





That's because everytime the name comes up, ... If people would not worry if someone was him, he could die a blog death.

Rain around us today, but not on us.
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Quoting caneswatch:


It wouldn't be. They act the exact same way, but has he ever shown two names at once?
He could be signed in on two different computers using different handles.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Let's straighten something out...JFV isn't on the blog.


I wouldn't be so sure of that.
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Ha. It's stopped. But it was a nice little downpour...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
1813. JLPR2


This is the CV system of the GFS at its peak.

Lets see what the 00z run, which I consider the most reliable run, looks like.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Quoting CRS: we got ONE squall that seemed "tropical driving rain" the rest of the day we get periodic episodes of higher wind, but dry.
Action: Quote | Ignore User


Well, I hope we do a bit better... lol

On the JFV conversation, I'm suggesting if u have a problem with a blogger, use the post related buttons. I'm about ready to start [-] everybody who keeps talking about JFV again. It's a really unnecessary distraction...


I agree. It makes this blog look bad. I don't know who JFV is or what he/she did, but it's not weather related and might deter new bloggers who are afraid to post and be accused of whatever.

Now on topic... 90L seems to be dying for the night. The cycle continues. It'll be back tomorrow afternoon though.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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