July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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Quoting scott39:
So low shear where 90L is headed?


Yep, it appears so, as that is why i am not dropping the chance of 90L to develop! That low of shear anywhere near a Wave is playing with fire. Never know tho if the Shear will actually be that low as Shear can change so fast in just a 24hr time frame. Need to just monitor it tho!
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Quoting MrCowan:


tim, plz post picture of it.




Actually the GFS has nearly dropped it completely it appears. Sorry everyone for the confusion!
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IMO, I still highly doubt 90L will develop. Again, if anything 90L's track is what is important, as storms may follow a similar track in a few weeks. Look at what the NOGAPS is showing, though not going to happen at all look at the track it takes - identical to 90L. Regarding 90L, land interaction has destroyed all the vort, completely opened wave, and I will be very surprised if at any point in its life if it develops.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24476
1958. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:



Shear Forecast
So low shear where 90L is headed?
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1957. scott39
Still 10% 90L wants to torture us.
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Shear Forecast
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


He's a troll. Please don't quote him.



OPPPSSS.........Troll or not tho. The GFS did not drop it completely!
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1951. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:



Just posted below on my Site:

Hello everyone! Invest 90L has not improved much today, but i still give it a small chance when the wave arrives toward the Western Tip of Cuba in the NW Caribbean. Shear is forecast to remain very low in that area as well. Still need to keep a watch and see! ALSO, take a look below at the NOGAPS and WRF Models as they are showing a hint of our truly first development from an African Wave. Need to watch to see if other models start coming into play as well.
Thanks Tampa
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Quoting scott39:
Patience with 90L has run out! LOL



Just posted below on my Site:

Hello everyone! Invest 90L has not improved much today, but i still give it a small chance when the wave arrives toward the Western Tip of Cuba in the NW Caribbean. Shear is forecast to remain very low in that area as well. Still need to keep a watch and see! ALSO, take a look below at the NOGAPS and WRF Models as they are showing a hint of our truly first development from an African Wave. Need to watch to see if other models start coming into play as well.
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1948. scott39
Patience with 90L has run out! LOL
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Nope it did not drop it entirely!!!


He's a troll. Please don't quote him.
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1945. scott39
What the heck is the cordinates of ex90L/wave/puff of wind/ wanna be Don?
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1943. Levi32
Quoting KoritheMan:


Um, isn't that what he's saying? >_>

The fast forward motion disallowed for low-level convergence, leading exactly to the process you described: low-level divergence.


Two different things. Low-level divergence is caused by a wind speed gradient with the gradient vector oriented parallel to the wind vector. This is not necessarily a feature that is present with a fast-moving tropical wave, where the wind field may be fairly uniform, and thus no low-levle speed divergence. The fast motion of the tropical wave, however, makes it hard for the winds flowing over the wave axis to curve sharply, and thus the wave finds it harder to amplify. This is analogous to cars on the road. Very fast traffic cannot take very sharp curves, but rather more gradual, sweeping turns. This is a separate issue from low-level divergence.
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1942. scott39
Modules forecasting a wave/Invest change more than the opinions on this blog. Im learning....wait until it developes before worshiping modules!!
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Quoting MrCowan:


You'll need to add him first.
link to FB site I am not familiar with it
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting MrCowan:



Entirely?


Nope it did not drop it entirely!!!
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Don's a coming it appears!
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00z GFS dropped the system..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24476
Quoting MrCowan:


Elaborate upon that, please?


High pressure directing storms to populated land masses instead of out to sea like last year.
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Quoting j2008:

Definatly has a chance, if it is still in one piece once it passes cuba and goes into the gulf. Once in the gulf it should be something of a worrysome storm I think.
upper level conditions over the wave will deteriorate by the time it reaches the gulf. Still have to keep an eye on it, but there's a reason why none of the models develop it when it enters the gulf.
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Quoting MrCowan:
Hey guys, Trevor Sonnier just updated his tropics blog on FB, go check it out and read it, it's an excellent write-up, the kid knows his stuff, =).
link please
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1930. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JUANING
11:00 PhST July 25 2011
==============================

The Low Pressure Area East of Visayas has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "JUANING".

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Juaning located at 13.2°N 127.8°E or 350 kms east southeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information
=========================

TD "JUANING" will continue to bring rains over Southern Luzon and Eastern Visayas becoming widespread in Bicol region and Samar area.

The public and disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Um, isn't that what he's saying? >_>

The fast forward motion disallowed for low-level convergence, leading exactly to the process you described: low-level divergence.
It sounded to me like he was saying the system as a whole was moving fast, making it hard for winds to wrap around it. The process I thought he was referring to (system as a whole moving fast) does not actually create divergence (winds aren't spreading out, they're just moving fast) it just makes it hard to achieve convergence. I'm talking about the trade winds ahead of it accelerating creating speed divergence. I guess its the same net effect though
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Quoting JLPR2:
Little disturbance.


Well now, I'm off to bed. Night all!


Interesting. I wonder what the conditions are like in front of it.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:
GFS 18z T=384hrs. Just wanted to give you all something to talk about before going to bed. Good nite all.



Hoping for a lack of storms this year. The storm at 384 is rather insignificant. However, the continuation of the large scale dynamics are a point of concern.
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1925. j2008
Quoting TxHurricanedude11:
btw 90L still gots a shot thats all I got to say

Definatly has a chance, if it is still in one piece once it passes cuba and goes into the gulf. Once in the gulf it should be something of a worrysome storm I think.
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GFS 18z T=384hrs. Just wanted to give you all something to talk about before going to bed. Good nite all.

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Quoting FrankZapper:
With a little luck, talented players, and smart coaching we can survive a low scoring game 7-3 and arrive at the goal line Dec 1 unscathed and healthy.
My above analogy is not as ridiculous as it might seem. With the MJO negative most of Aug we could realistically get through it with fewer than expected systems.Those that make it across the Atlantic might be directed to Central America by the stagnant record heat causing high(a very unfortunate situation for CA, if those systems pop in the Caribbean). An early return of strong troughs in Sept could steer later systems to recurve. The problem is the 2-3 week period in early-mid Sept where we are just going to have to play stellar defense..
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1919. JLPR2
Little disturbance.


Well now, I'm off to bed. Night all!
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Quoting MrCowan:
I'm eating a Cuban wedge, anyone care for a piece of it? ^_^, LOL.


No Thanks I have had a "Bucket-of-Nuts"


Taco :o)
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Well I have had about as much as I can stand for one day..... Yall have a good one and I'll check back in later today :o) I will also keep at least one eye on whats left of 90L, because something is not right with that one..... It does bother me for sure :o)


Have Fun and Good Night to you All :o)


Taco :o)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Quoting CRS: we got ONE squall that seemed "tropical driving rain" the rest of the day we get periodic episodes of higher wind, but dry.
Action: Quote | Ignore User


Well, I hope we do a bit better... lol

On the JFV conversation, I'm suggesting if u have a problem with a blogger, use the post related buttons. I'm about ready to start [-] everybody who keeps talking about JFV again. It's a really unnecessary distraction...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.