July 22, 2011: A day of records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:56 PM GMT on July 23, 2011

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The crest of the extreme heat wave of July 2011 has passed, although temperatures are still going to be dangerously hot in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. New York City (Central Park) will reach 100° again, as well as Philadelphia and possibly Washington Dulles. Heat index values could surpass the 110° mark today, and excessive heat warnings are in effect from New York City to South Carolina, as well as a large portion of the Central United States. Yesterday, the heat index soared past 120° in Wilmington, DE (124), Easton, MD (125), Annapolis, MD (120) and Atlantic City, NJ (122), among others. A more complete list of Friday's heat index extremes can be found here.

Numerous records fell yesterday as far north as Maine. There were plenty of daily records to talk about, but here are some of the noteworthy all-time record high temperatures:

Newark, NJ: 108° (old record was 105° set in 2001)
Washington Dulles, DC: 105° (old record was 104° on multiple dates)
Bridgeport, CT: 103° (ties the old record set in 1957)
Hartford, CT: 103° (old record was 102° set on multiple dates)
New Haven, CT: 102° (old record was 101° set in 1926)

Baltimore hit 106°, one degree shy of their all-time high record which was set in 1936. New York City (Central Park) set a daily record of 104°, which was 2 degrees shy of their 106° all-time high record, which was also set in 1936. More on the record-setting year of 1936 in yesterday's blog from Jeff. Two notable all-time record high minimums were also set yesterday: 84° in New York (Central Park) and 86° in Newark, NJ.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, keeps track of 303 select stations in the U.S. with long standing record histories. So far this summer, seven of these have broken or tied their all-time maximum temperature records. Some of these were long-standing:

• Amarillo, TX 111° (1892)
• Dodge City, KS 110° (1874 tied)
• Newark, NJ 108° (1893)
• D.C. Dulles 105° (1962)
• Tallahassee, Fl 105° (1883)
• Hartford, CT 103° (1885)
• New Haven, CT 102° (1780)

The last summer to have more all-time high records than this year was 2002, which set 9. Christopher C. Burt estimates that yesterday probably rates in the top five hottest days on record for the mid-Atlantic states (Washington D.C. to Boston).

Invest 90L


Satellite imagery of NHC Invest 90L this morning.

Invest 90L is looking ragged on satellite as it makes its way across the Caribbean islands. While this wave looked ripe for eventual development earlier this week, it has really taken a turn for the worse as it moved across the Main Development Region of the North Atlantic. Today, low level circulation is could favorably be described as less than moderate, and almost nonexistent at higher levels. Today, not one of the global models I've looked at (ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, or GFS) develop 90L, but they are coming into better agreement that the wave's track will be across the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico, rather than up the east coast of Florida. This could be one of the reasons the models are not suggesting development—too much land interaction, not enough time over open warm waters. However, its hard to say that this wave will not show some signs of improvement when it reaches the Gulf. Water will be toasty, moisture will be relatively high, and wind shear will remain incredibly low. Today the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. My forecast has been the same for the past two days, right around 20% chance of development over the lifetime of the wave.

Thanks to our weather historian Christopher C. Burt for some useful information on heat waves and yesterday's records. I'll have another blog on Monday.

Angela

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anyway guy I will be off I am going to go do some bird shooting for the next couple of days I should back on WED if not earler
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11215
Quoting FLdewey:

LOL... we actually could use a disaster, if for no other reason, to deplete the marketing budgets of insurance companies. The GEICO commercials are fine, farmers is pushing it. The state farm commercials need to be buried.

Now Dairy Queen get's 10 points for a random Olympic joke.


Maybe a missed point, my apologies.

That was State Farms GFS based rate watch hurricane model, it automatically sends out rate increases based on the threat level. They claim the, "Big 886er" as they call it, is one of the more accurate in the industry. They are also working on the "SuperB2160" that will be used in quarterly flood zone reviews.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I knew the The Chart was in a Cold Storage facility in the UP of Michigan, but was grossly unaware about the DOOM:CON Chart keys. This is a game changer! I knew we should have not come up with those plans while in WunQuentin last fall.

Tap-codes between cells to come up with plans like this are not advised in the future.


I'm going to guess he found out where the facility was when we were texting back and forth about the chicken saying where Paula was going.

Gotta get disposable cells the next time.

Either way, the chart and the keys are missing. I've seen the chart pop up on here a few times, which means Deweys got a color copier. Might have to check his place out for counterfeit 20's.

Nice water temps ahead of ex90, but I'm going to be pessimistic and not give it much.
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2404. Buhdog
getting that comma shape....
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Next African wave holding on...



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Quoting TampaSpin:
I put the red circle where i believe a Developing Low is forming........



There's a hint of rotation on the east side, but it could be an illusion created by the burst of convection.

Even so, I don't see how the NHC can keep it at 'near 0%'. I'd say 20% at 2pm. But, if it starts to develop, it could do so very quickly and be a hurricane by the time it gets into the GOM, Given the heat in the water there. Land interaction will be a problem for it, though.
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oi, you lot. New blog.
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Quoting TampaSpin:




Not really sure what you don't understand about a Developing Low forming. Would it be better just for YOU to say a Surface Low Forming.........there you go.


He kinda has a point there, doesn't he? You can't have a developing low forming if it is already developing.

Right?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Looks like the Crazies are coming on, so i am getting off until they drink and pass out..........LOL.....see you all later!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What will the NHC give 90L at 2PM?

A. Near 0%

B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Drop it from TWO or higher than 40%

*I know that 90L has been deactivated, but to make it easier, just gonna go along and act like it wasn't*



let's say B to start again
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Quoting TampaSpin:




Not really sure what you don't understand about a Developing Low forming. Would it be better just for YOU to say a Surface Low Forming.........there you go.

Can't say anything on the blog anymore without someone nit picking it apart.
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Starting to look blustery now here in Grand Cayman
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7708
2392. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
2391. hydrus
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Quoting CaneAddict:


A developing low is forming?...I don't think that makes very much sense..,,lol.




Not really sure what you don't understand about a Developing Low forming. Would it be better just for YOU to say a Surface Low Forming.........there you go.
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2389. JLPR2
Also, who stole the ITCZ from 40W and further? XD
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2386. JLPR2
Little TW almost seems more interesting than 90L.




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Can I blink yet?
My eyes are getting dry.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I put the red circle where i believe a Developing Low is forming........



A developing low is forming?...I don't think that makes very much sense..,,lol.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
DOOM:CON operates on a "two-person concept",

like in Wargames: "TURN YOUR KEY, SIR!"

Rarely will both parties agree to "turn [their] key". Thus, DOOM:CON is seldom elevated. However, unilateral raising of the DOOM:CON is not without precedent, but the unintended consequences of such action can be disastorous.

Right now, I have one key and I remember leaving the keys with Dewey last season. I hope he didn't get them duplicated. They clearly say "DO NOT DUPLICATE".

Either way, DOOM:CON is at Level 5 right now, so enjoy the beverage of choice and resume normal activities.


You had left the keys with me that I put away in a secure location here in the UP. I heard Dewey came up and broke in. IDK where they are now.
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Quoting weatherh98:


now that you say that, i think itll hit everyone else except tx


Well, it is always a long shot at this stage, but that is the fun of wishcasting. The first 5 visible frames this morning made me think it looked much more interesting, but extrapolating from there is not exactly science.
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I put the red circle where i believe a Developing Low is forming........

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Quoting FLdewey:

I'm sorry for your loss.

~Dewey

roflmao..bahhaha...at least a cat wasn't involved...bahha
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DOOM:CON meeting in 25. We'll see what level it is at then. No need to jump the gun.....ex90L ain't developing that fast.
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I will wish it to Texas.Just don't see that happening. I think by end of season Texans might be asking when will this train of storms ever stop.
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Well I guess it is time for me to finally say hello to everyone. I have been a lurker for years. I have a really big interest in weather (especially tropical)......now back to lurking and learning :)
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Q: What will the NHC give 90L at 2PM?

A. Near 0%

B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Drop it from TWO or higher than 40%

*I know that 90L has been deactivated, but to make it easier, just gonna go along and act like it wasn't*
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31554
Quoting HTownJitters:


NO! Yucatan BAD! Come to Texas and find unconditional Love!


now that you say that, i think itll hit everyone else except tx
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Quoting FLdewey:
Riiiight.

"LASER"

How about just more slightly better than meaningless? Literally. ;-)

And don't down the monkey... he had good numbers last year. Or was it a chicken?


A chicken. The chicken then got banned for being a correct chicken.
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Quoting weaverwxman:
Looks to me like a Yucatan rain maker. I know just call me a downcaster...


NO! Yucatan BAD! Come to Texas and find unconditional Love!
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Quoting FLdewey:

Almost looks annular to me...


Pinhole???
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Quoting aquak9:


Ok, we cool.
(hands can of cashews back to dewey)


dont waste the nuts
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Quoting FLdewey:
LMAO... models that far out are less than meaningless. You'd be better off giving a monkey the keys to Photoshop.

True story.



Doesn't it say "State Farm" in the bottom left, hard to see though?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.