U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2011

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The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.

The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:

Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.

Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.

The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.


Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.

Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.

Jeff Masters

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XX/AOI/XL
MARK
13.13N/53.43W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just throwing this out there...The central Atlantic tropical wave will pass right through Hebert Box #1. Luckily, it isn't a strong hurricane.

"An Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions."



Even though I am just a (East Coast) Florida Native "lurker", years of experience have ALWAYS made me suspicious of the storms that come up thru Cuba. Nice post!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yay!! a fellow washingtonian!!!.Yeah it is hot outside for this time of night.It feels more like a daytime high.


No, I'm in Florida, but that dew point and heat index really stood out for 9 p.m. Also the Potomac River in DC is at 87 degrees!!!
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Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:
Washington DC (KDCA) at 9 p.m. 91 degrees, dew point 81, heat index 111, WOW!!!


Yelp and this is a normal temp for us here on the Gulf Coast during the "Dog Days Of Summer"

Taco :o)
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871. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/XX/XL
MARK
11N/28W


That one is quietly moving into the CATL; hadn't noticed it.
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870. viman
I'm out, this is crap. g'night all...
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Quoting doabarrelroll:

PBI? Whats that


Airport code for West Palm Beach, FL. I travel for business regularly so I've just gotten accustomed to using airport codes to describe locations rather then spell them out.
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Quoting Tazmanian:

'


what kind of pie?
At this time of year......how about a fresh peach pie with homemade fresh whipped cream(lots of that).
Want a piece?
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XX/XX/XL
MARK
11N/28W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53809
Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:
Washington DC (KDCA) at 9 p.m. 91 degrees, dew point 81, heat index 111, WOW!!!
Yay!! a fellow washingtonian!!!.Yeah it is hot outside for this time of night.It feels more like a daytime high.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting doabarrelroll:


Frank's comment was valid. If one seeks aid, it is best one doesn't engage in pirate activity on anyone. As such, I don't see his comment as a troll. If you disagree with it, respond with something equally valid such as, "I don't feel the pirating Somalis have access, because of the awful situation that has been going on there, to the information of the U.S.'s position to lend a helping hand, like they have before to no avail," rather than being vaguely dismissive.

Incidentally, I don't see how something weather/ climate related is more off-topic than your comments about trolls and trolling. :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Thanks.


Hey man, didn't you tell me once that 7/22 is your birthday?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Getting tired of that unwanted blogger on Wunderground.com? In three easy steps, it will no longer be a problem.

Step 1: Report the blogger

Step 2: Hit the minus button

Step 3: Add 'em to your ignore list

See! Easy as pie!!! :)

'


what kind of pie?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
I've never ever brought up the JFV situation on the blog. Maybe because it doesn't bother me.
.
.
I'd recommend what I've been doing for years. Just ignore any post from anyone that bothers you....ignore it. Move on. Real life is too short. To talk about trolls only breaths life into the issue.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, is recon going into the wave tomorrow or Saturday?


Sunday.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sunday.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


When it's at 21N, 69W


Thanks.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Washington DC (KDCA) at 9 p.m. 91 degrees, dew point 81, heat index 111, WOW!!!
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The Eatl tropical wave looks better than the one in the Catl, but looks can be deceiving.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8023
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, is recon going into the wave tomorrow or Saturday?


When it's at 21N, 69W
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


But unfortunately, all the Admins can do is keep banning.


Exactly, always going to be fighting an uphill battle. If everyone really did ignore him he'd go away. One can only talk to themselves for so long. Unfortunately that will never happen.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, is recon going into the wave tomorrow or Saturday?
ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 69.0W.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So, is recon going into the wave tomorrow or Saturday?
Sunday.
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So, is recon going into the wave tomorrow or Saturday?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Time to go.........Goodnight.
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Quoting Balsero2011:


Yo comprendo todo eso, senora! Pero ese fulano de tal ya hace rato que la tiene cojia conmigo, inecesariamente.
Relájeselo sólo y trate de aprender algo aquí. Sabe que estamos bien pero debe establecerse y parar de ser prohibido.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
The official high temperature reading at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport came in yesterday at 99 sultry degrees, just shy of the record 101 degrees for that day.

Indeed, the 1995 Chicago Heat Wave was hotter, and thus proved to be much more deadly, killing over 700 people in the city alone. In 1999, Chicago also saw oppressive heat and humidity levels in the middle of July, resulting in heat indexes higher than yesterday's 108 degrees.

Furthermore, than great Midwest hot summer and drought in 1988 will always be remembered as well, where numerous records were set.

Oppressive heat and humidity is part of the climate in the Midwest. It always has been, and always will be. But folks up that way know it will not last, and will be dreading winter once the first snowflakes begin flying in November.


And, we also need to remember another date in history - July 4, 1911.

"...On this day in 1911, record temperatures are set in the northeastern United States as a deadly heat wave hits the area that would go on to kill 380 people. In Nashua, New Hampshire, the mercury peaked at 106 degrees Fahrenheit. Other high-temperature records were set all over New England during an 11-day period.

The area from Pennsylvania northeast to Maine was most affected by the stifling heat. New York City was particularly hard hit. In fact, the New York City Health Department put out one of its very first heat advisories during July 1911. Mayor William Gaynor tried to make sure that the city's ice dealers could keep up their deliveries; in the time before refrigeration, ice was critical in keeping the food supply from spoiling.

By July 13, New York had reported 211 people dead from the excessive heat. One man, apparently disoriented from heat exhaustion, overdosed on strychnine. In Philadelphia, 159 people died from the heat..."

Back then, it was just weather...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Aye, but he online harasses some of our bloggers, myself included. He sent me a nasty WUmail a few days ago, which I forwarded to Dr. Masters (who is absolutely tired of this issue, I can assure you he is doing everything in his power to get rid of this kid) and WunderGroundAdmin. What I suggest what we all do is email as many of the Admin's as we can get to get rid of this kid.. because the flagging and ignoring isn't working he just comes back every time.


But unfortunately, all the Admins can do is keep banning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
The blog is in JFV mode.I'm out....
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting IceCoast:
IP bans are pretty useless if you know what you're doing. Doesn't take a genius to get around one thats for sure.


Aye, but he online harasses some of our bloggers, myself included. He sent me a nasty WUmail a few days ago, which I forwarded to Dr. Masters (who is absolutely tired of this issue, I can assure you he is doing everything in his power to get rid of this kid) and WunderGroundAdmin. What I suggest what we all do is email as many of the Admin's as we can get to get rid of this kid.. because the flagging and ignoring isn't working he just comes back every time.
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Quoting viman:


and headed for D-Max...



yep
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841, 842: Thanks.
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Quoting angiest:
Been out of pocket for a bit. What did Dora wind up peaking at?


155 mph, just like Hurricane Igor of last year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Quoting angiest:
Been out of pocket for a bit. What did Dora wind up peaking at?


155mph, 929mb.
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FWIW Balsero2011 is NOT JFV, anyone who the last few years has seemed like JFV is not him. Not even JFV would sink as low as this kid.
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Been out of pocket for a bit. What did Dora wind up peaking at?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I really have no problem with JFV but he is on FB saying how much he loves tropical weather and then he comes here where he could actually learn something and does his best to annoy people and get banned.
Just as long as no one bothers me...I don't have a problem with them.Although the same can not be said for some bloggers twards me here(caugh caugh Cyberted)...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
836. viman
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
The TW is getting better organized. Prepare for action in the next couple of days. Don !!!!!


and headed for D-Max...
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835. Relix
Another wave about to wreck my weekend at Puerto Rico. Won't develop into anything by the time it reaches us. IT should be here by tomorrow night so... yeah its not gonna become a storm in 24 hours. Nigh impossible.
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IP bans are pretty useless if you know what you're doing. Doesn't take a genius to get around one thats for sure.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I imagine there's nicer spots in the world, but in my travels I've found the sunsets from Naples to Ft. Myers Beach as good as it gets. I go to the beach there every night when I visit my brother-in-law, who was smart enough to buy a nice home midway between the beach and 41 near the Beach Club 25 years ago for 60k.


I proposed mariage to my Wife years ago floating in the water sipping drinks during a beautiful sunset at the Naples Beach and Golf Resort.....I know what you mean but living in North Florida now, the sunsets, floating in the water sipping drinks, on the beaches around Destin and Seaside are not too shabby either....
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Quoting Neapolitan:

60$?! Even with the market still depressed here, nowadays that wouldn't buy a one-car, unattached garage. Kudos to him. ;-)
I know.
That's why I mentioned it. Even these days still a 1M plus home, easily. And nothing fancy. Just did a quick check of prices...I knew it was good but not that good. Location, location, location. I'm happy for him and his family. And for purposes of this blog the 2 minute walking distance to the beach to observe the weather and sunset is priceless.
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I really have no problem with JFV but he is on FB saying how much he loves tropical weather and then he comes here where he could actually learn something and does his best to annoy people and get banned.
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Quoting doabarrelroll:


3rd world countries bite the US? odd and off topic but hey good trolling
Quoting doabarrelroll:


3rd world countries bite the US? odd and off topic but hey good trolling
Yes,the country in question is Somalia. Need I say more?
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Guess who's back in the houuuuuse with a bunch of souvineir's and a smile for your mouths!!!(okay so maybe I don't).But you all sound so down.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
raw ADT for Dora shows a moderate Tropical Storm
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The TW is getting better organized. Prepare for action in the next couple of days. Don !!!!!
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


1. Dynamic IP address would mean he would be unblocked every time he restarts his computer

2. Proxy Servers would mean he would be able to access the site regardless of how many IPs they ban


Yep, IP bans are like alarm systems. They only keep out the casual. The determined can get around them easily enough.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.