U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2011

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The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.

The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:

Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.

Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.

The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.


Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.

Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.

Jeff Masters

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Lots of 80's in Texas this morning for so called low temps. I live out in the country and it is barely below 80. Have a great Friday, sorry but this heat wave and severe drought have gotten to me, I hate seeing everything outdoors die.
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Good Morning to all:

I am preparing here in San Juan to recieve some squally weather this weekend,hopefully nothing more.

Discussion of wave from Crown Weather Services:

Tropical Wave Located 500 Miles East Of The Windward Islands:
I am closely watching a tropical wave that is located around 500 miles to the east of the Windward Islands this morning. This tropical wave is producing on and off popcorn type shower and thunderstorm activity, where it fires up for several hours and then weakens thereafter. The reason for the lack of deep, sustained convection is that there continues to be a large amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara of Africa.

This tropical wave is expected to continue tracking west-northwestward this weekend into next week and will bring some very squally weather to the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico from Saturday into Sunday with heavy rainfall and gusty winds to 40 to 50 mph expected.

Even though vertical wind shear values are low enough to support tropical development, the dry, dusty air near this tropical wave will prevent it from developing into a tropical cyclone. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that the atmosphere is moister near the Bahamas and it is possible that this tropical wave may try to develop into a tropical cyclone once it reaches the Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday; although, this is not a sure thing. Only the NOGAPS model is forecasting development into a tropical cyclone during the early and middle part of next week. All of the other global model guidance members are saying no to development.

At this point, I think it is going to be a pretty much wait and see game for the next several days. I will say I do not expect tropical cyclone development from this tropical wave from today through Sunday night with the first chance of possible development arriving during Monday and Tuesday. Either way, I will keep a close eye on this tropical wave and will keep you all updated on the latest.



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1021. aquak9
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
ECMWF now more similar to NOGAPS. It still doesn't develop the tw. But it sends it in blob form up the entire length of Florida. Definitely seeing more trough, less ridge on this run. Sigh. Hang in there fellow Texans. We'll get our rain blob one day. ;) Night y'all.


more trough less ridge?
I knew I liked you, atHome. Even if ya DO eat all the donuts. :)
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Quoting islander101010:
mdr is becoming alittle more active
might be another yellow coming
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4891
mdr is becoming alittle more active
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1017. rod2635
And heat index now higher in Philly at this early hour than in Key West. Something that is exceedingly rare in summer considering ocean water temps in KW at or above 90 degrees.
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1016. rod2635
Gasp...overnight minimum just 83 here in philly
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1015. tj175
The wave chance bumped up to 20%. Where is it headed guys?
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ECMWF now more similar to NOGAPS. It still doesn't develop the tw. But it sends it in blob form up the entire length of Florida. Definitely seeing more trough, less ridge on this run. Sigh. Hang in there fellow Texans. We'll get our rain blob one day. ;) Night y'all.
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1013. WxLogic
Indeed... as it gets closer to the ULL over E Cuba the ventilation should improve further at upper levels and help it sustain TSTM activity.
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At least for PR & RD seems that we will have a rainy and stormy weekend... cause that wave is going to slow its speed soon over us.... No sunny beach this weekend...
Bedtime...

Link

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20% Cool. Now maybe if it becomes an invest soon at least the spaghetti models will recognize its there. Sigh. I don't know if the NOGAPS is right but at least it knows its there. Lol.
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I was expecting this 20%. Good Night everyone.
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1008. JRRP
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

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20%
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
501

ABNT20 KNHC 220553

TWOAT



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 910 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE

AZORES. ADVISORIES ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED ON TROPICAL STORM

BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.



A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS

IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR

SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF

PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH

THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER

ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Dora the explorer adventure in the E.Pac is coming to an end. It was great thing to watch. Glad no one got inside of her. It would have been devastating.
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That wave is moving really fast; Almost reaching and starting to interact with the E side of the ULL over RD & PR...


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CATL wave looks less organized tonight. It may not hold together as it passes N of PR.
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997 Bahahuricane,

Yep, and the ULL over west Cuba should head westward as well.
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999. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


I agree on all except Dry air... Dark area S of PR, ahead of the wave represents dry air... (Correct me if wrong)
Link



Dry air is moving too.

So the wave should be able to handle it. But I would be rather surprised if it actually managed to develop due to the lack of model support.
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The preseason has about 3 weeks to go. I just hope the 6-8 weeks following that are not one day from hell after another. On the positive side we do seem to somehow get through it and continue to enjoy our lives on or near the coast.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
A large, strong, ULL over west Cuba/Haiti which will prevent any development. Additionally, land interaction will hurt the wave. Also, an ULL will be forming over the western gulf. Finally, there is no model support.

Sooooo, its quite safe to say this wave isn't much to worry about.
Wasn't really expecting anything before it actually got into the gulf due to the aforementioned ULL... the forecast ULL is new to me. I guess this one caught my eye because it's a bit further N than the earlier waves. Looks like the Nrn end is going through the Keys.
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Quoting alfabob:
No shear, no dry air and no 2 areas of vorticity. 200mb - 850mb is moving together, so any shear is going to be pushed out of the way; dry air is obviously dissipating and the 2nd area of "vorticity" is simply the ITCZ.


I agree on all except Dry air... Dark area S of PR, ahead of the wave represents dry air... (Correct me I can be wrong)
Link

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening everybody.

Just out of curiousity, is anybody looking at the Twave passing over Cuba? It should be in the GOM by Saturday latest. Any thoughts on what's possible with it over the weekend? [Just thinking our trusty models were showing something in the central GoM around the same time the wave would be there, iirc...]
A large, strong, ULL over west Cuba/Haiti which will prevent any development. Additionally, land interaction will hurt the wave. Also, an ULL will be forming over the western gulf. Finally, there is no model support.

Sooooo, its quite safe to say this wave isn't much to worry about.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Calm down.

Nobody has been talking about a troll in 2hrs, except yourself. And this wave doesn't look like it will be a big storm...not yet anyway, its got to develop first. Rift now chances of this wave ever developing are far from 100%.
Didn't mean to sound so snarky about it ... I came in at comment 801 and waded through about 50 troll comments, and maybe 8 non-troll ones... just irritating when I'd been expecting to read about the new yellow circle and the downgrade in everything else... I do see the blog's calmed down about it, so I guess I overreacted.

I just wish we'd actually do what we say about these interlopers....
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Quoting emguy:
I agree. The wave has clearly split in to...Looks like 2 very weak vorticities too. I think Levi did a great job on calling a wave split days ago...now lets see if he called it right with preferring the northern one. I do prefer that one myself as well.

NHC Shortwave link loop shows this very nicely.
Easy choice there; more vorticity potential.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
This blog never ceases to amaze me. Here we are looking at the pre-cyclogenesis stage of what could be the first big storm of the ATL season and everybody is talking about a TROLL?

Pathetic. Just minus the blogger. Report him. Shut up about him. WE CAN MAKE HIM DISAPPEAR. But instead we keep talking about him. Is it love or what.

Nuff said.


If you refer to the wave east of the lesser antilles, I don't see any of the reliable models doing much with it, but it will be worth observing.
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Dry air
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Quoting BahaHurican:
This blog never ceases to amaze me. Here we are looking at the pre-cyclogenesis stage of what could be the first big storm of the ATL season and everybody is talking about a TROLL?

Pathetic. Just minus the blogger. Report him. Shut up about him. WE CAN MAKE HIM DISAPPEAR. But instead we keep talking about him. Is it love or what.

Nuff said.
Calm down.

Nobody has been talking about a troll in 2hrs, except yourself. And this wave doesn't look like it will be a big storm...not yet anyway, its got to develop first. Rift now chances of this wave ever developing are far from 100%.
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Maybe I'm wrong, but look at the big flare N of the wave; Is it the interaction of the dry Sahara's dust with the Water vapor?


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GFS 18z T=384hrs. System over CATL not much happening with the current wave currently East of the lesser Antilles. Hopefully this proves correct.

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This blog never ceases to amaze me. Here we are looking at the pre-cyclogenesis stage of what could be the first big storm of the ATL season and everybody is talking about a TROLL?

Pathetic. Just minus the blogger. Report him. Shut up about him. WE CAN MAKE HIM DISAPPEAR. But instead we keep talking about him. Is it love or what.

Nuff said.
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SAL and dry air will be blocked soon for the next batch of waves that emerge from Africa...

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Sydney records its wettest July in 50 years as parts of NSW are declared disaster zones
SYDNEY has experienced its wettest July since 1950 as parts of NSW are declared natural disaster zones. Downpours are playing havoc with roads and public transport across the state, while floods have trapped people in their cars.

Police and Emergency Services Minister Michael Gallacher has added Lithgow, west of the Blue Mountains, Kiama on the south coast and the Illawarra city of Wollongong to the disaster list.

"These local government areas follow on the natural disaster declarations for the Blue Mountains, Shoalhaven, Oberon and Wingecarribee made on July 7,'' Mr Gallacher said.

Almost 23mm of rain has been measured at Observatory Hill in central Sydney since 9am (AEST) on Friday.

This has taken Sydney's July total to 244mm, making it the wettest July since 1950, when 336mm was recorded.

That was the wettest year since Bureau of Meteorology records began in 1858.

The latest drenching means this month is now the 15th wettest July on record.
Bureau meteorologist Julie Evans said warm ocean currents off Sydney and the south coast meant there was more moisture in the air. "That feature would be contributing to the rainfall we're having,''

Sydney is expected to endure further rainfall on Friday night, before the wet weather eases on Saturday morning.

"We expect the rainfall to continue overnight and tomorrow morning before easing as the wind goes south-southwest,'' Ms Evans said.

A strong wind warning is in place along the entire NSW coast.

Swells of up to six metres are expected.

The State Emergency Service (SES) has received 560 calls for help in the 24 hours to Friday morning, with Sydney and the Central Coast drenched by more than 80mm of rain.

SES spokeswoman Stephanie Heard said workers had a hectic night, with four flood rescues on the Central Coast on Thursday evening.

Two people were rescued from two cars trapped at Ourimbah, while two children and an adult were rescued from a car at Holgate, near Gosford.

A sixth person was rescued from a causeway at Bundook on the mid-north coast.

"We are urging motorists not to enter floodwaters in any circumstances as you don't know how deep they are,'' Ms Heard told AAP.

Most of the calls for help have come from the Central Coast and Sydney's northern beaches, where residents have experienced leaking roofs.

Sydney Ferries passengers faced disruption on Friday morning, with an overflowing weir stopping services on the Parramatta River.

Rough seas also caused the privately run Cronulla to Bundeena service to be cancelled.

Trains were also affected, with localised flooding, mechanical failures and diversions slowing down movement on the tracks.

"Drivers are reducing speed to drive to the conditions and passengers aren't boarding and alighting as quickly,'' a CityRail spokeswoman told AAP.

More than 85mm has fallen in the city over past 24 hours causing flash flooding, traffic chaos and bringing down trees.

If the city receives one more millmitre of rain it will be the wettest month in more than 50 years, Bureau of Meteorology duty forecaster Jake Phillips said.

"It will be the wettest July since 1950 when 336mm fell," Mr Phillips

Terrey Hills copped the worst of the wet weather with 128mm of rain, while Frenchs Forest, 124mm, and Cronulla, 108mm, were also drenched.

The Manly Ferry service was cancelled this morning as the low pressure system responsible for the wet weather also sending 4m swells crashing into our coastline.

Fire fighters were called to St Ives this morning after a tree fell onto a house.

Mr Phillips said conditions would improve as the low pressure system would slowly move towards New Zealand over the weekend.

"It will be a gradual improvement," he said.

"You will start to see some sunny breaks on Saturday but more likely on Sunday.

"It shouldn’t be too bad this weekend as long as you don’t mind the odd shower."

Motorists are also being urged to drive with extreme caution this morning, expect delays and allow additional travel time as rain continues to have an impact on the Sydney road network.

As at 5am this morning:

* Oxford Falls - Wakehurst Parkway (between Oxford Falls and Narrabeen) is closed in both directions due to flooding.

* Audley - Audley Weir in the Royal National Park is closed due to flooding.

* Palm Beach - Barrenjoey Road near Surf Road. Alternating traffic conditions in place using a single lane due to a landslide overnight.

Glenfield - Cambridge Avenue is closed at the causway crossing over Georges River.

* Hornsby Heights - Galston Road at Galston Gorge. A rock fall has affected the westbound lane approximately 50m past the first hairpin bend. Traffic is able to pass with caution. However the road maybe closed a little later to remove the rock fall and reopen all lanes.

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The one behind has good rotation; quite amount of SAL in the N



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Quoting emguy:
I agree. The wave has clearly split in to...Looks like 2 very weak vorticities too. I think Levi did a great job on calling a wave split days ago...now lets see if he called it right with preferring the northern one. I do prefer that one myself as well.

NHC Shortwave link loop shows this very nicely.


Yeap, It would have been worst if it consolidated all that moisture in one area... that wave was huge...
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Evening everybody.

Just out of curiousity, is anybody looking at the Twave passing over Cuba? It should be in the GOM by Saturday latest. Any thoughts on what's possible with it over the weekend? [Just thinking our trusty models were showing something in the central GoM around the same time the wave would be there, iirc...]
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978. JRRP
the wave over Africa need to be watched



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The dry air is diminishing...

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jasonweatherman2011
...CINDY MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...
11:00 PM AST Thu Jul 21
Location: 43.5N 42.8W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NE at 28 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb

"no way this is still a tropical storm!! its be a POST-TROPICAL"

Last year, a TropicalCyclone almost made it to Greenland before turning extratropical.

Cindy's only heading for Ireland. 'd be rude for Cindy to waste the landing slot at Galway.
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Just did a blog update. Feel free to check it out.

I'll be back later.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.