U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2011

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The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.

The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:

Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.

Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.

The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.


Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.

Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.

Jeff Masters

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1069. whepton3 8:35 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

I had a great discussion with Levi a few nights ago with regard to models vs. human forcasting. I think the consensus was that the models are the best thing that we have and that forecasters, including NHC, would be foolish to ignore the model guidance (unless there is clearly some kind of glaring error). Point being that I am not too hyped on this system at the moment but some of the models suggest that it may approach south florida, in some form or fashion, in the long term. As such, we have been put on notice by the "model oracles" so we do have to keep an eye on it.
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Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11281
1066 & 1068:

That's why I post this stuff...for the feedback. Glad everyone's paying attention!
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Morning Lows????
Boston 81
Philadelphia 82
Washington Reagan 83
NYC Central Park 84
Newark 86
Baltimore Inner Harbor 88
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1064. weathermanwannabe 12:28 PM GMT on July 22, 2011

That's no good. Here in S. FL the wave is getting some play with the local guys. Started talking about it this morning.

They of course don't want to freak anyone out... so at this point it's just a "rainmaker" for middle of next week. Guess they're in wait-n-see like the rest of us. Or maybe they're in wait-half-an-hour and see mode... like some of us. That was a bad joke at your computer's expense... sorry.
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Quoting mikatnight:
What happened to global warming?

By Bullitt Marquez, AP

A soldier walks towards an abandoned house as Mt. Pinatubo spews ash during its eruption in the Philippines in this June 19, 1991, file photo. Natural aerosols from particular 'colossal' volcanic eruptions have significantly cooled the global climate at times, including following Pinatubo.

By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

Updated: 07/21/2011 2:16pm

What happened to global warming?

This week's heat wave notwithstanding, scientists have been puzzled as to why global warming has occurred at a slower pace since 1998, following decades of increasing temperatures.

A new study out today in the journal Science reports the cause could be an increase in the amount of aerosols-aatiny, airborne solid and liquid particles from both natural and man-made sources-aahigh up in the stratosphere.

In the study, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other agencies found that an increase in stratospheric aerosols decreased the global warming that would have otherwise occurred by 25 percent since 1998.

"There was less warming than you would have had without the aerosols," says study co-author John Daniel of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

Sea salt, dust and volcanic ash are three common types of natural aerosols; these airborne particles can also come from man-made sources from the burning of fossil fuels.

"Most of the global warming of the past half-century has been driven by continuing increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases," the study reports, "but natural aerosols from particular 'colossal' volcanic eruptions have significantly cooled the global climate at times, including for example the 'year without a summer' experienced after the eruption of the Tambora volcano in 1815 and notable cooling after the Pinatubo eruption in 1991."

Daniel added that he wouldn't have thought that the aerosols would still be a factor now, this long after the 1991 volcanic eruption of Pinatubo.

The stratospheric aerosol increase could also be due in part to human emissions of sulfur precursors (such as sulfur dioxide from burning coal), the authors point out in the study.

This study follows another study earlier this month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which found that China doubled its coal consumption from the years 2003 to 2007, leading to a huge increase in sulfur emissions that may have had a cooling effect on the planet. The researchers in that study suggested that this cooling effect may have counteracted ongoing warming due to increased carbon dioxide concentrations, permitting natural forces to predominate the planet's temperature.

Will there be a point in the future at which the impact of aerosols on global temperatures will be less of a factor than it is now?

"What happens in the future depends on the cause of the aerosols," says Daniel. "If it's volcanic, it depends on what volcanoes do. If its sulfur, it depends on what our pollution is."

The paper does not address how man-made versus natural activities contribute to aerosol creation, which they say is a question to be explored in further studies.

As for aerosols' impact on climate models used to estimate future global warming, according to the study, "climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the … global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase."

Copyright 2011 USATODAY.com



A lot of disinformation, here. Sulfur and particulate pollution from developing economies, like China, may well have a cooling effect. These countries don't have strict clean air laws like those in the west. But large volcanic eruptions only cool the planet for a couple of years. In the year following Pinatubo's eruption, global temperature decreased by 0.5 degrees C. The following year was cooler by 0.2 degrees C.

As to global warming occurring at a slower pace since 1998, that is simply not borne out by the facts:-


With respect to the 1951-80 average (NASA GISS)

91 0.35C warmer
92 0.13
93 0.13
94 0.23
95 0.37
96 0.29
97 0.39
98 0.56
99 0.32
00 0.33 Average for the decade 0.31C warmer than the 1951-80 average.


01 0.47
02 0.56
03 0.55
04 0.48
05 0.63
06 0.55
07 0.58
08 0.44
09 0.58
10 0.63 Average for the decade 0.55C warmer than the 1951-80 average


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1065. NICycloneChaser 8:30 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

Thanks......I am also missing the "quote' button for this Blog........ :)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1061. whepton3 8:24 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

I have been having problems with my computer for about a week and have problems getting on some sites as well as this one (no link buttons etc) so I have not been able to access the 8:00 am update unless they are almost one 1/2 hour behind.....


Actually, the 8am TWO was about 7:15 this morning. Nothing exciting, no change whatsoever.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1061. whepton3 8:24 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

I have been having problems with my computer for about a week and have problems getting on some sites as well as this one (no link buttons etc) so I have not been able to access the 8:00 am update unless they are almost one 1/2 hour behind.....
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Thanks Taz.
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TDBret (line-segments on the left) appears to have lost track (single dots of 99L)
of TSCindy (line-segments on the right)
Bret's heading toward Kerry,Ireland and Cindy's heading toward Cherbourg,France

The shortest distance between two single-dots to the near-left of the Cindy line-segments represents the 3hours between ATCF'sTDnumbering and NHC'sTSnaming.
Otherwise, 6hours between dots.
Bret's max.sus.wind was between 55k/h(34.2mph) and 35mph(56.3k/h)
minus its average travel speed of 19.5mph(31.4k/h)
for a spin of 14.7to15.5mph(23.6to24.9k/h)
Cindy's max.sus.wind was between 50mph(80.5k/h) and 85k/h(52.8mph)
minus its average travel speed of 26.7mph(43.9k/h),
for a spin of 23.3to26.1mph(36.6to41.1k/h)

Copy&paste 33.1n71.7w-33.8n70.6w, 33.8n70.6w-34.2n69.7w, 34.2n69.7w-35.6n68.1w, 35.6n68.1w-36.7n66.5w, bda, yyt, 32.7n68.3w, 32.9n67.4w, 33.2n66.5w, 33.4n65.5w, 33.2n63.8w, 33.1n61.8w, 33.1n59.5w, 33.3n56.9w, 34.5n54.7w, 35.2n53.8w, 36.3n51.6w, 38.3n49.1w-40.3n47.3w, 40.3n47.3w-42.3n45.0w, 42.3n45.0w-43.5n42.8w, 43.5n42.8w-44.5n39.9w GreatCircleMapper for more info.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Waiting on the 8:00 am % for the wave approaching the Antilles currently at 20% (as of the 2:00 am Outlook). If you look at the loops and CIMSS charts this am, it is currently headed towards some moderate sheer, and, the westerlies flow just inside the Caribbean basin once it passes the lesser antilles, so I would not expect the % to up for the time being.


Looks like it's sticking on 20. I scurried off to look at the outlook as well as soon as I got on here.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning.
Has 90L been designated yet?



look at post 1054 and you find out
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Good morning, 90L:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107221212
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011072212, , BEST, 0, 138N, 546W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,



YAY we now have 90L
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Good Morning.
Has 90L been designated yet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What happened to global warming?

By Bullitt Marquez, AP

A soldier walks towards an abandoned house as Mt. Pinatubo spews ash during its eruption in the Philippines in this June 19, 1991, file photo. Natural aerosols from particular 'colossal' volcanic eruptions have significantly cooled the global climate at times, including following Pinatubo.

By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

Updated: 07/21/2011 2:16pm

What happened to global warming?

This week's heat wave notwithstanding, scientists have been puzzled as to why global warming has occurred at a slower pace since 1998, following decades of increasing temperatures.

A new study out today in the journal Science reports the cause could be an increase in the amount of aerosols-aatiny, airborne solid and liquid particles from both natural and man-made sources-aahigh up in the stratosphere.

In the study, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other agencies found that an increase in stratospheric aerosols decreased the global warming that would have otherwise occurred by 25 percent since 1998.

"There was less warming than you would have had without the aerosols," says study co-author John Daniel of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

Sea salt, dust and volcanic ash are three common types of natural aerosols; these airborne particles can also come from man-made sources from the burning of fossil fuels.

"Most of the global warming of the past half-century has been driven by continuing increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases," the study reports, "but natural aerosols from particular 'colossal' volcanic eruptions have significantly cooled the global climate at times, including for example the 'year without a summer' experienced after the eruption of the Tambora volcano in 1815 and notable cooling after the Pinatubo eruption in 1991."

Daniel added that he wouldn't have thought that the aerosols would still be a factor now, this long after the 1991 volcanic eruption of Pinatubo.

The stratospheric aerosol increase could also be due in part to human emissions of sulfur precursors (such as sulfur dioxide from burning coal), the authors point out in the study.

This study follows another study earlier this month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which found that China doubled its coal consumption from the years 2003 to 2007, leading to a huge increase in sulfur emissions that may have had a cooling effect on the planet. The researchers in that study suggested that this cooling effect may have counteracted ongoing warming due to increased carbon dioxide concentrations, permitting natural forces to predominate the planet's temperature.

Will there be a point in the future at which the impact of aerosols on global temperatures will be less of a factor than it is now?

"What happens in the future depends on the cause of the aerosols," says Daniel. "If it's volcanic, it depends on what volcanoes do. If its sulfur, it depends on what our pollution is."

The paper does not address how man-made versus natural activities contribute to aerosol creation, which they say is a question to be explored in further studies.

As for aerosols' impact on climate models used to estimate future global warming, according to the study, "climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the … global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase."

Copyright 2011 USATODAY.com
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1056. emcf30
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Thank you sweetie.I thought thats what the NHC said.My goodness we are getting a good tropical rain here in Semmes Ala.They say more is coming.I am sending some to Texas as we speak.


I am sure the Texans on here would love that.
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Good morning, 90L:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107221237
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011072106, , BEST, 0, 118N, 468W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072112, , BEST, 0, 124N, 483W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072118, , BEST, 0, 128N, 498W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072200, , BEST, 0, 132N, 514W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072206, , BEST, 0, 135N, 531W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2011072212, , BEST, 0, 138N, 547W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 175, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13629
Good Morning. Waiting on the 8:00 am % for the wave approaching the Antilles currently at 20% (as of the 2:00 am Outlook). If you look at the loops and CIMSS charts this am, it is currently headed towards some moderate sheer, and, the westerlies flow just inside the Caribbean basin once it passes the lesser antilles, so I would not expect the % to up for the time being.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Matthias,

Neat time lapse! Hadn't see it like that before.
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central atl alot of shower activity
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Port Canaveral will be rockin' today with 1,800 goodbye parties. Exit interview begin this morning at NASA and by noon things will be getting in full swing.
Stay safe on the roads guys, there will be plenty of cabs there.
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Quoting emcf30:

NHC has it moving W-NW @ 15 -20 mph. If you look at the loop, the convection is firing off on the North side which kinda makes it look like it is moving NW but the entire wave still moving W-NW
Thank you sweetie.I thought thats what the NHC said.My goodness we are getting a good tropical rain here in Semmes Ala.They say more is coming.I am sending some to Texas as we speak.
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Hi,

I've done a summary of the time lapses of our amazing supercells closse to the border of Austria and Slovenia, Europe, on 23rd of June 2011.

I only know supercells like this as I was chasing in the United States... well, enjoy it ;) - I do...

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From yesterday. Maybe going in Sunday.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 21 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 69.0W.
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If its at 12n 55 west, then its either headed for the carrib, or wnw to nw it ride over the greater antilles with no chance of dev.And at 20 mph at 285 degrees.Well that would put this in the carrib in less than 24 hrs.And the old john Hope rule is;if it does NOT FORM BEFORE THE ISLANDS THEN IT WANT TILL IT GETS TO the western Carrib.then its probably a C/a event.Maybe thats why the other models don't do anything with this.They feel its going to rain itself out over the mountains of the greater antilles, or track into C/A.jMHO.have a nice day.
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1044. emcf30
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Our local news said the wave is movimg NW.I thought it was moving WNW.

NHC has it moving W-NW @ 15 -20 mph. If you look at the loop, the convection is firing off on the North side which kinda makes it look like it is moving NW but the entire wave still moving W-NW
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Our local news said the wave is movimg NW.I thought it was moving WNW.
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The spin with the wave is actually around 12N/55W , vorticity map supports this also.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8123
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Good early morning.Wow Dora has really been torn apart this morning.The cooler waters has taken a toll on her.Wonder what our wave is gonna do today?
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1038. emcf30
Ngp showing low off Jax
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Quoting islander101010:
nhc will shortly increase to 40% at 30w 12 n that will be 20%
Still at 20%. 8 am TWO is out already.
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1032. emcf30
I see our wave is looking a little better this morning.



Seems to be shoving the dry are West. Area Moistening up. Don't see any type of development until it reaches the Bahamas ( If any ) where it will not have any dry air intrusion issues maybe the beginning of next week. We shall see


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Things to watch, nothing imminent, I'm good with that.
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Quoting islander101010:
tropical wave approaching the leewards see two lows on vis. 14 n at this time seems strongest and one at 22n which i believe will become the dominate one
nhc will shortly increase to 40% at 30w 12 n that will be 20%
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4920
tropical wave approaching the leewards see two lows on vis. 14 n at this time seems strongest and one at 22n which i believe will become the dominate one
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4920

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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