U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.

The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:

Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.

Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.

The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.


Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.

Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1125 - 1075

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

1125. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weaverwxman:
IMO 90l will not develope into anything. Will probally just stay an open wave and move harmlessly through the Carib. and into CA. The weather ahead of it,the dry air and SAL will keep it at bay. Have patience people you will have plenty to watch and pontificate as the season progresses. Anyone who lives in S Fla remember TS Bonnie from last year,what a dud. Hope we get a few of those this year a TS with no pop works for me.... Just keep Cantore away from here.. LOL

The next wave is the one to watch IMO, ECMWF has it in the SE carib in 6 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1121. HCW
Quoting weaverwxman:
IMO 90l will not develope into anything. Will probally just stay an open wave and move harmlessly through the Carib. and into CA. The weather ahead of it,the dry air and SAL will keep it at bay. Have patience people you will have plenty to watch and pontificate as the season progresses. Anyone who lives in S Fla remember TS Bonnie from last year,what a dud. Hope we get a few of those this year a TS with no pop works for me.... Just keep Cantore away from here.. LOL


Cantore is the Storm Shield so your safe when he shows up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1120. ncstorm
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I'd like to see what the bigger models do with 90L (GFDL, HWRF & TCVN). BAMM'S were not so good with Bret early on.


they had it going into the GOM..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

When looking at weather maps showing isobars, look for 1016mb, this is the steering level.


Click for loop
Oh wow that helps alot thank you Aussie.You guys and gals are the greatest.See I learned something this morning.Great teachers you all are.Good to see you Aussie.Now I am gonna sit back and learn some more.Have a Bleesed Day everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is the blow-up just a little SE of 90L ? TIA to anyone that answers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1117. ncstorm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'd like to see what the bigger models do with 90L (GFDL, HWRF & TCVN). BAMM'S were not so good with Bret early on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
IMO 90l will not develope into anything. Will probally just stay an open wave and move harmlessly through the Carib. and into CA. The weather ahead of it,the dry air and SAL will keep it at bay. Have patience people you will have plenty to watch and pontificate as the season progresses. Anyone who lives in S Fla remember TS Bonnie from last year,what a dud. Hope we get a few of those this year a TS with no pop works for me.... Just keep Cantore away from here.. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1114. ncstorm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emcf30:


I am sure the Texans on here would love that.


Please send some of that out here to Texas. Its so dry where I live (30 miles east of Ciudad Acuna, MX) that the fish in our fast disappearing creek have ticks!
We need a nice wet tropical system to ride up the Rio Grande and dump copious amounts of rain on us. Hard to wish for tropical systems but that is exactly what we need here in SW Texas. Come on Invest 90L!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1112. ncstorm
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1095. ncstorm 8:58 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

And we are nowhere near the heart of the season still several weeks away........I just e-mailed some friends and family in South Florida and told them to go ahead and get supplies (and extra water for the dogs) for the SEASON just in case as their usual waits for power again after a storm can sometimes be from 5-15 days dependening on the circumstances.

Folks really need to go ahead and stock up now just in case cause (and I have been caught in them a few times because I waited too long) you don't want to be at Home Depot for 6 hours in line waiting to get the left-over plywood....


exactly..nothing will be pretty waiting in line for basic items in record breaking heat..I will say I have never boarded up except for floyd when they thought that was going to be category 4..any other time, we put duct tape in the form of a X on our windows to keep them from shattering..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, folks!

Looks like Dora went POOF overnight and we now have 90L

In non-tropical weather, the GFS is showing the upper midwest returning to the sauna in about a week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Got it.Thanks sweetie for taking the time to explain it to me and so detailed in your explanation.I am trying to understand all of this.All I know is that if someone says its in the GOM I am gonna run.LOL....Thanks again.

When looking at weather maps showing isobars, look for 1016mb, this is the steering level.


Click for loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Woke up, see we have 90L and a different model consensus? Neighbor was talking already about it. I'm in S FL. I tried explaining to him that its way to far out and probably will change anyways. Is there anything out there that can back this up? Is it just early models that will deviate or is there some good backing to think this will go more Westerly as models are showing this morning?



I wouldn't put to much stock in any model runs at this point. Things that you could derive from the models at this point.

1. There is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing. Little consistency yet however, it doesn't mean it won't develop, look at Bret & Cindy.
2. There is also a possibility that a trough will be on the east coast at that time. This trough may or may not be capable of pulling this storm up and out of the Caribbean and may be strong enough to fully re-curve the storm.

There could be a lot of dynamics at play here, maybe not if we're just dealing with a ridge. I typically will wait until there is a duck in the pond because depending on where the low forms on the wave axis, it could have HUGE implications.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
P.S.: I'll be in Ocean City, MD this next week, so if this thing spins up the east coast, I'm gonna be pretty upset.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1075. weathermanwannabe 12:42 PM GMT on July 22, 2011

These models on 90L seem to suggest it's headed this way (to S. FL)... as to what it is when it gets here, who knows? Just reading what everyone is saying, it seems to be Sunday before we have a real idea as to what 90L ends up as if it heads towards FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:


9 a.m.
94 in Baltimore
95 in Newark, NJ


Totally unnecessary for it to be this hot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Agreed Adrian.Althoughif it does go through the carrib it just might be like last year, steered towards CA.These fast moving weak systems this time of the year tend to go straight through the carrib into CA.Emily and quite a few other july systems have done this.I seem to also remember the models early on would always have a north bias till things became more obvious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltOCane:


And it's already 91 here in baltimore and it's not even 9am EDT yet...
Not looking forward to lunch... I have to go buy some... then drive 3 hours to the beach.


9 a.m.
94 in Baltimore
95 in Newark, NJ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was telling yesterday that i was seeing this Tropical Wave taking a more southerly track and so that it will enter the Caribbean Sea. Also i was pointing out last night that was seeing a circulation near 13n and 52w and the data today confirmed that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1095. ncstorm 8:58 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

And we are nowhere near the heart of the season still several weeks away........I just e-mailed some friends and family in South Florida and told them to go ahead and get supplies (and extra water for the dogs) for the SEASON just in case as their usual waits for power again after a storm can sometimes be from 5-15 days dependening on the circumstances.

Folks really need to go ahead and stock up now just in case cause (and I have been caught in them a few times because I waited too long) you don't want to be at Home Depot for 6 hours in line waiting to get the left-over plywood....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Woke up, see we have 90L and a different model consensus? Neighbor was talking already about it. I'm in S FL. I tried explaining to him that its way to far out and probably will change anyways. Is there anything out there that can back this up? Is it just early models that will deviate or is there some good backing to think this will go more Westerly as models are showing this morning?

HPC has that wave over Florida in 3 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:


There's a strong ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic, called the Bermuda/Azores high. It's there every year. Tropical storms can't break through it, so are steered to the west.

Until recently, there was an area of low pressure to the west of the high, known as a 'trough', which Bret and Cindy moved through, but it seems that feature will disappear.

Usually, the Bermuda/Azores high doesn't go all the way to the US coast, so hurricanes are 'sucked' away to the North Atlantic where they peter out. These are known as 'fish storms' on here, because they don't make landfall.

This year, it looks as if the Bermuda/Azores high may be broader than usual, so storms may be steered all the way to the east coast/Gulf.
Got it.Thanks sweetie for taking the time to explain it to me and so detailed in your explanation.I am trying to understand all of this.All I know is that if someone says its in the GOM I am gonna run.LOL....Thanks again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1099. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/90L/XX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Seems like there is a lot of popcorn thunderstorms with that wave.If all that moisture were to consolidate would I be correct in saying that would be one heck of a invest?


Always that possibility, but notice there is currently shear blowing off the tops of those popcorn thunderstorms. Additionally looks like a lot of interaction with the islands which would lesson development.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11347
Woke up, see we have 90L and a different model consensus? Neighbor was talking already about it. I'm in S FL. I tried explaining to him that its way to far out and probably will change anyways. Is there anything out there that can back this up? Is it just early models that will deviate or is there some good backing to think this will go more Westerly as models are showing this morning?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1096. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
REVISED

101

WHXX01 KWBC 221237

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1237 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110722 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110722 1200 110723 0000 110723 1200 110724 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.8N 54.7W 14.7N 57.8W 15.5N 61.3W 16.7N 64.8W

BAMD 13.8N 54.7W 14.7N 57.9W 15.5N 60.8W 16.2N 63.5W

BAMM 13.8N 54.7W 14.5N 57.9W 15.1N 61.2W 15.9N 64.5W

LBAR 13.8N 54.7W 14.4N 58.0W 15.1N 61.6W 15.7N 65.0W

SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 35KTS

DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 35KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110724 1200 110725 1200 110726 1200 110727 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 68.5W 19.8N 75.4W 21.1N 80.8W 22.3N 85.0W

BAMD 16.8N 66.0W 18.3N 70.6W 19.8N 73.9W 21.3N 76.7W

BAMM 16.7N 67.8W 18.3N 73.6W 19.5N 78.3W 20.5N 82.7W

LBAR 16.2N 68.0W 17.9N 72.9W 20.7N 75.4W 24.6N 80.3W

SHIP 43KTS 54KTS 63KTS 69KTS

DSHP 43KTS 44KTS 56KTS 62KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 51.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 48.3W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1095. ncstorm
Good Morning, we now have Invest 90L..I just hope everyone is prepare this season..I still say having a tropical system with the record breaking heat wave will be terrible..losing power when you have dew points over 80 will put the aftermath of a hurricane on a whole 'nother level..so if anything, buy extra tanks of gas before the hurricane hits because your car might be the only Air Conditioning you may have..

GFS predicting a storm off of NC..(take it with a grain of salt)



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Thanks Adrian pretty much what i see also.Guess the thats not what the younguns on here wanted to hear lol.


Updated 12z Bams run this through the caribbean if it can avoid land it maybe a player down the road if it makes it into the gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mrsalagranny:
I am a bit confused.What will steer the wave to the West and what will pull it more to NW?aybe I am saying that wrong as well.I guess I am wondering will it get in the Caribbean or will it go up the SE coast and what would have to be the setup of each scenario?Sorry I am just trying to learn.TIA


There's a strong ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic, called the Bermuda/Azores high. It's there every year. Tropical storms can't break through it, so are steered to the west.

Until recently, there was an area of low pressure to the west of the high, known as a 'trough', which Bret and Cindy moved through, but it seems that feature will disappear.

Usually, the Bermuda/Azores high doesn't go all the way to the US coast, so hurricanes are 'sucked' away to the North Atlantic where they peter out. These are known as 'fish storms' on here, because they don't make landfall.

This year, it looks as if the Bermuda/Azores high may be broader than usual, so storms may be steered all the way to the east coast/Gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:
Morning Lows????
Boston 81
Philadelphia 82
Washington Reagan 83
NYC Central Park 84
Newark 86
Baltimore Inner Harbor 88


And it's already 91 here in baltimore and it's not even 9am EDT yet...
Not looking forward to lunch... I have to go buy some... then drive 3 hours to the beach.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Adrian pretty much what i see also.Guess the thats not what the younguns on here wanted to hear lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
90L GHCC Loop
Seems like there is a lot of popcorn thunderstorms with that wave.If all that moisture were to consolidate would I be correct in saying that would be one heck of a invest?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1087. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
90L.INVEST
03L.CINDY
02L.BRET

East Pacific
04E.DORA

Central Pacific

West Pacific
93W.INVEST
08W.MA-ON

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemispher
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the northern extent of the tw is moving so fast west doubt this one turns north before florida
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5009
1085. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
749

WHXX01 KWBC 221226

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1226 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110722 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110722 0600 110722 1800 110723 0600 110723 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 53.1W 14.5N 56.2W 15.4N 59.4W 16.6N 62.8W

BAMD 13.5N 53.1W 14.4N 56.4W 15.3N 59.5W 16.0N 62.4W

BAMM 13.5N 53.1W 14.4N 56.3W 15.1N 59.5W 15.8N 62.7W

LBAR 13.5N 53.1W 14.2N 56.3W 15.1N 59.9W 15.9N 63.5W

SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS

DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110724 0600 110725 0600 110726 0600 110727 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.9N 66.2W 20.5N 72.6W 22.4N 76.7W 24.1N 78.7W

BAMD 16.7N 65.1W 18.4N 69.7W 20.4N 72.4W 22.5N 74.3W

BAMM 16.7N 65.9W 18.7N 71.5W 20.2N 75.4W 21.4N 78.2W

LBAR 16.6N 66.8W 17.8N 72.1W 19.2N 76.3W .0N .0W

SHIP 42KTS 54KTS 61KTS 64KTS

DSHP 42KTS 39KTS 36KTS 29KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 53.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 49.8W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 46.8W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:



A lot of disinformation, here. Sulfur and particulate pollution from developing economies, like China, may well have a cooling effect. These countries don't have strict clean air laws like those in the west. But large volcanic eruptions only cool the planet for a couple of years. In the year following Pinatubo's eruption, global temperature decreased by 0.5 degrees C. The following year was cooler by 0.2 degrees C.

That is indeed a poorly-written article that misstates a few key points--and has a thoroughly misleading headline.

The most glaring to me: "The researchers in [the China sulfur emissions] study suggested that this cooling effect may have counteracted ongoing warming due to increased carbon dioxide concentrations, permitting natural forces to predominate the planet's temperature." That's not at all what they said; rather, they concluded that while the planet continued to warm during the time of Chinese sulfur emissions due to increased concentrations of CO2, it would have warmed at a much more rapid rate had those sulfur emissions been absent.

Ah, sloppy reportage. What are ya gonna do? ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
I see that there is another area making some noice near 30W. What about that one?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90L GHCC Loop
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11347
Related to 1057 & 1068:

Effect of small volcanoes

Includes Soufrière Hills in Montserrat, which has been active since 1995. To me it reads that our temperatures would be a lot worse if it weren't for the volcanic sulfur. Clearly this isn't a 'cure' for climate change, but it is an ameliorating factor. And we can use all of those we can get.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:


This wave is far from becoming anything to get to concerned about. The overall environment that is ahead is not to friendly to say the least as it may run into possible land interaction and a TUTT like feature.




Just posting the models. Most likely just a rain maker, but as always conditions can and will change.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11347
Looks pretty ominous now, the ridge is looking like it will hold up and push that one into the east coast. Will be watching it closely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


This wave is far from becoming anything to get to concerned about. The overall environment that is ahead is not to friendly to say the least as it may run into possible land interaction and a TUTT like feature.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am a bit confused.What will steer the wave to the West and what will pull it more to NW?aybe I am saying that wrong as well.I guess I am wondering will it get in the Caribbean or will it go up the SE coast and what would have to be the setup of each scenario?Sorry I am just trying to learn.TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1076. HCW
90L models from the NHC Have a great day :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1069. whepton3 8:35 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

I had a great discussion with Levi a few nights ago with regard to models vs. human forcasting. I think the consensus was that the models are the best thing that we have and that forecasters, including NHC, would be foolish to ignore the model guidance (unless there is clearly some kind of glaring error). Point being that I am not too hyped on this system at the moment but some of the models suggest that it may approach south florida, in some form or fashion, in the long term. As such, we have been put on notice by the "model oracles" so we do have to keep an eye on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1125 - 1075

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron