U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2011

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The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.

The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:

Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.

Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.

The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.


Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.

Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.

Jeff Masters

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HPC Sea Level Pressures and Fronts.3-7 day forecast

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ok the blog is acting funny again quoting people i dont want to quote lol
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Actually the SST's are higher ahead of the wave so yeah hoter water
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Giant Earth Fart Triggered Mass Extinctions, Spurring Rise of Dinosaurs: Study

July 21, 2011 3:27 PM EDT

A huge release of methane gas may have triggered the prehistoric mass extinctions that allowed dinosaurs to become the dominant life form on earth, according to a new study.

About 201 million years ago, half of known species vanished in an event that signaled the end of the Triassic period and created the lack of natural competition necessary for the ascendance of dinosaurs. The oldest known dinosaur fossiles date back Fto about 230 million years ago, but they do not take over until about 30 million years later....

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/184628/20110721/m ethane-burp-methane-fart-methane-release-mass-exti nction-climate-change-carbon-dioxide.htm
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Quoting Neapolitan:

According to the NWS, Hell, MI, has only reached 97 so far today. Ann Arbor, then, truly is hotter than Hell.


LOL!!
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Quoting Neapolitan:

According to the NWS, Hell, MI, has only reached 97 so far today. Ann Arbor, then, truly is hotter than Hell.


LOL +10
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Quoting DestinJeff:


"You gotta let your boys breathe, Jerry!"


LMAO!
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Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
quick-curious question about the "heat wave": Why are their never any heat advisories in florida? is it because temperatures this high (it is currently 94 degrees with 104 degree heat index in west palm beach)are not far from normal?

also in the winter, florida receives similar "cold weather advisories" when wind chills reach the 30's but northern states do not.


I live in a very cool part of the world, but I know heat advisories are mainly aimed at people not acclimatised to extreme heat. Those are the ones most likely to die.

So, Michigan may issue heat advisories even though expected temps there are below those expected in Florida or Texas.
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not much convection with the tropical wave yet lets see if it likes warmer water tomorrow.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OK, HOW is it possible for it to be hotter in MICHIGAN than in Puerto Rico?


well we are lucky enough to have the trade winds sweep in cool air during the summer from the Atlantic ocean it does get bad here when the wind comes from the south (caribbean) that water is hot so the wind comes in hot hope that helps. God bless the trade winds!!!
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Quoting Neapolitan:

According to the NWS, Hell, MI, has only reached 97 so far today. Ann Arbor, then, truly is hotter than Hell.


I was under the impression that only happened when the Wolverines lost football games. I was proven wrong again.

LOL Nea.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

According to the NWS, Hell, MI, has only reached 97 so far today. Ann Arbor, then, truly is hotter than Hell.
New Orleans, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 39 min 23 sec ago
92 °F Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 52%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the North

well at least New Orleans aint hotter than Hell...
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Quoting SuperYooper:


Ask people who live in Hell, MI.

According to the NWS, Hell, MI, has only reached 97 so far today. Ann Arbor, then, truly is hotter than Hell.
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quick-curious question about the "heat wave": Why are their never any heat advisories in florida? is it because temperatures this high (it is currently 94 degrees with 104 degree heat index in west palm beach)are not far from normal?

also in the winter, florida receives similar "cold weather advisories" when wind chills reach the 30's but northern states do not.
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Quoting MrstormX:


People who care about meteorological processes more then watching TCs make landfall.
Landfalls a meteorological process more interesting than a fish storm.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OK, HOW is it possible for it to be hotter in MICHIGAN than in Puerto Rico?


As a MI resident, I would also like an answer to this. Dewpoint just hit 80 in my parts. What a week it's been...
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Quoting duajones78413:
What is this about some blob and Texas?


I'd link it for you but my puter sux. The noon ECMWF doesn't develop the yellow circle blob but sends it this way. For this run. Lol.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OK, HOW is it possible for it to be hotter in MICHIGAN than in Puerto Rico?


Ask people who live in Hell, MI.
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What is this about some blob and Texas?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

OK, HOW is it possible for it to be hotter in MICHIGAN than in Puerto Rico?
glob....never mind

:)
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1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting aspectre:
111 ncstorm "Hey..we made national news this morning... [corrected]Link"

They cal him Flipper, Flipper King of the Ocean...
No one you see... is smarter than he...


119 TropicalAnalystwx13 "People should know, when there is one shark attack, there are bound to be others.

Well there's always the dog bites shark option.

But then, betcha ya can't find a beach community where motorists aren't a VASTly greater death&injury hazard to beach-goers than sharks.
Betcha jetskiers&boaters cause far FAR more swimmer deaths&injuries than sharks.
Betcha even surfers cause more injuries to other beachgoers than sharks...and fewer deaths only cuz other surfers rescue the victim.


Craazzy about the shark in South Africa..I watched Steve Erwin for the first time ever the other day and I have to say that man took so many deadly chances with great whites as well..
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Darrne Sat estimates, show cindy with 60 to 65 mph, and pressure of 995 MB
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I hope Dr. Masters is relaxing in the shade somewhere; NWS says it reached 100 degrees in Ann Arbor a short while ago:

Uh-oh


OK, HOW is it possible for it to be hotter in MICHIGAN than in Puerto Rico?
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anywhere from a fish to a texas landfall
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I hope Dr. Masters is relaxing in the shade somewhere; NWS says it reached 100 degrees in Ann Arbor a short while ago, slightly surpassing the old record for the date of 91:

Uh-oh

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111 ncstorm "Hey..we made national news this morning... [corrected]Link"

They cal him Flipper, Flipper, king of the ocean. No one you see... is smarter than he...

119 TropicalAnalystwx13 "People should know, when there is one shark attack, there are bound to be others.

Well there's always the dog bites shark option.
But then:
Betcha ya can't find a beach community where motorists aren't a VASTly greater death&injury hazard to beach-goers than sharks.
Betcha jetskiers&boaters cause far FAR more swimmer deaths&injuries than sharks.
Betcha even surfers cause more injuries to other beachgoers than sharks...and fewer deaths only cuz other surfers rescue the victim.
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334. htszp
Jeff,
I was just curious how you so easily find out what the statewide dewpoint record is. Do you just have an NCDC database in front of you? Or are there lists of these interesting records somewhere?
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ATCF has Bret still a TS:
AL, 02, 2011072118, , BEST, 0, 339N, 702W, 35, 1007, TS

No weakening from Cindy:
AL, 03, 2011072118, , BEST, 0, 414N, 462W, 50, 1002, TS

And Dora weakens slightly:
EP, 04, 2011072118, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1071W, 130, 932, HU
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If the wave stays weak, then GOM, if the wave develops, then SE coast..
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12z ECMWF

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Quoting DestinJeff:
I saw no development on the 12Z ECMWF that I looked at.


Doesn't develop it but sends the blob to TX.
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Quoting beell:


HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011

...DORA HAS TIME FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS IT WILL REMAIN
OVER 28-29 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END
OF THE GUIDANCE AND CALLS FOR PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KT. WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER
DECREASING SSTS. A MUCH FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER
TWO DAYS AS DORA EXPLORES THE COLDER WATERS OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...

LOL
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Cindy looks like a Hurricane.
very impressed by Cindy. She's quite a ways beyond the 26C isotherm
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
No development on the 12Z Euro, but it does go into Texas. I'm using RaleighWX.
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72 hrs. NHC has the wave in the Caribbean. I see nothing north of Puerto Rico or in the area south of the Bahamas.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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